"As Good As It Gets?"
When I think of the phrase “as good as it gets,” I don’t think of Jack Nicholson and Helen Hunt in their wonderful movie of that name, I think of how lucky I am to be married to the woman I have been for sixty-two years, to have the three children we do and their spouses, and the ten grandchildren they have produced. (The photo, taken a couple of years ago, are of Caroline and me and our ten grandchildren.)
Nevertheless, Jamie Dimon’s comment struck a chord. We are living at an incredible time. So much has gone well, with opportunities rising, but so are the risks that we may be getting over our skis. Life is never a smooth road. Among the bumps, there are twists and turns. Be prepared and stay alert. And don’t lose focus on what is most important in your life.
Sydney M. Williams
Thought of the Day
“As Good As It Gets?”
July 21, 2026
“It’s getting close to as good as it gets.
We just don’t know how long it will last.”
Jamie Dimon, CEO & Chairman JPMorgan Chase
July 14, 2026
Jamie Dimon made those comments after his bank’s record-breaking quarter. But his observation may have wider applicability, for the stock market in particular. However, trying to time the market is, generally, a fool’s exercise. Nevertheless, perspective is important, and Mr. Dimon’s comment resonated with me.
And I do worry about other factors. Have we crossed a fiscal, political and diplomatic Rubicon? Our federal debt – $5.7 trillion in 2000 – has soared to $38 trillion in 2025, while unfunded federal obligations now approach $88 trillion according to the Cato Institute. These are burdens placed on future generations. I worry about leveraged ETFs and “prediction markets,” which, according to Pew Research will grow from $51 billion in 2025 to an estimated $240 billion in 2026. They are simply a form of gambling, and I worry about what that says about young participants. I worry about the rise of nationalism, anti-Semitism, retributive politics, populism, protectionism, and the return of “great powers,” with China dominating the Pacific region, the U.S. controlling the Western Hemisphere, and with Europe, Africa and the Middle East being up for grabs. And I worry about today’s polarized politics and the ascending interest in socialism.
And being older, with a diminishing runway ahead of me, I do worry about financial markets that have been so generous over the past decade and a half. In the seventeen years since the stock market’s[1] bottom (March 9, 2009) following the 2008 credit crisis, the DJIA have provided a compounded annual return of 13 percent, roughly double the long-term average. Does that mean we are at the end of a long-term bull rally? I don’t know. In August 1982, the averages were lower than they had been in 1967 when I became a stock broker. That August saw the start of a bull run that ran through January 2000, and which saw the DJIA compound annually at over 16 percent[2]. However, ten years later, in January 2010, the Averages were ten percent lower.
Perhaps there is further to run, but I suspect returns over the next ten to fifteen years will be less exuberant. That does not mean one should avoid stocks; it does mean that one should be more selective and, perhaps, lower expectations.
I don’t want to sound too pessimistic, because we live in a time of dramatic technology change. Artificial intelligence is revolutionary. While I am somewhat of a Luddite when it comes to technology, it is my belief that many older industries – despite disruptions that will be part of the process – will benefit from AI, in ways we cannot anticipate. Productivity gains will help corporate margins and benefit shareholders. Like the Industrial Revolution in the 19th Century, the proliferation of consumer products in the 1920s, the invention of the integrated circuit in the early 1960s, and the evolution of the internet in the 1990s, we are living through a time of disruptive technological change, which if the past is guide will add jobs, provide economic growth and improve our lives; but it will also be disruptive, as change always is.
There are cycles to investing, and a few people may be good at market timing, but most are not. Markets rise and fall, but over the long term they have done well. One should never become too greedy and assume higher than average returns will persist. On the other hand, one should never become discouraged by bear markets that may last a decade or more. The secret to successful investing is dollar-cost-averaging and the magic of compounded returns, lessons I wish had been learned years earlier. It is the magic of compounded returns that make 530A IRAs (Trump Accounts) so attractive, especially given that parents can contribute up to $5,000.00 annually. The accounts grow tax deferred until the child reaches eighteen. Perhaps a new generation of Americans will come to appreciate capitalism?
As long as our political system allows us to be free to innovate, and if taxes and regulations are not too onerous or restrictive, and debt is manageable, we should be fine. I am reminded of these lines from Rudyard Kipling’s 1895 poem “If:”
“If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
.........................................................
If you can dream and not make dreams your master,
.........................................................
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it...”
So, is this as good as it gets? To be honest, I cannot answer the question. If we speak of bank earnings or the stock market, perhaps. But I am no seer. If we speak of the economy, I suspect fewer tariffs, less regulation, lower taxes and a focus on debt and deficit reduction would help. Politically, I hope this is not as good as it gets. But as regards my family and friends – wife, children, in-laws, grandchildren, and those in my social orbit – I cannot imagine life getting better.
[1] In writing of the stock market, I use the Dow Jones Industrial Average, as I have the daily closing prices going back to January 4, 1915, thanks to Laszlo Birinyi’s Book of the Dow. Since 2012, I have tracked the DJIA’s closing prices. Other indices, such as the S&P 500 or the NYSE Index, may be more reflective of the overall market, but this is what I have.
[2] Keep in mind, that period included October 19, 1987, a day which saw the DJIA decline by 22.63%, the largest daily percent decline in its history. Reasons for the speed of the decline are generally attributed to computer-based models providing ‘portfolio insurance.’
Labels: Cato Institute, Jamie Dimon, Laszlo Birinyi, Rudyard Kipling
posted by Thought of the Day @ 4:25 AM
0 Comments
