"The Nuclear Summit - A Step Forward - I Hope"

Sydney M. Williams

Thought of the Day

“The Nuclear Summit – A Step Forward – I Hope”

April 14, 2010

According to Richard Burt, former Ambassador to Germany and State Department official, writing in yesterday’s Wall Street Journal, President Obama has not abandoned “his long-term goal of Global Zero: the elimination of all nuclear weapons world-wide.” Others, like James Schlesinger, disagree. “The Nuclear Posture Review indicates that a sizable nuclear deterrent will remain essential for the foreseeable future.” Certainly, the goal of a nuclear-free world is, to borrow a line from Hamlet, “a consummation devoutly to be wished.” But, in my opinion, it is a wish born in naïveté and unlikely to be realized.

The President is correct when he suggests that the single greatest threat to our – and the world’s – security is the possibility of nuclear weapons falling into the hands of terrorists. He said, “…the risk of a nuclear confrontation between nations has gone down, but the risk of a nuclear attack has gone up.” That may be true, but try telling that to Israel, a country that lives with the very real threat of a nuclear empowered Iran. Ironically, the summit did not touch on the two most combustible nations, Iran and North Korea. Instead a non-binding agreement was signed to secure prescribed amounts of nuclear material or convert nuclear reactors that use highly enriched uranium to less dangerous fuel. Additionally, specific agreements were made with Vietnam, Ukraine, Mexico, Chile and that hot-bed of terrorism, Canada.

The Bush administration sat back and let North Korea achieve nuclear capability. To let that happen a second time in Iran brings to mind that old saying, “trick me once, shame on you, trick me twice, shame on me.”

For sixty-five years the world has lived with nuclear weapons. During the first ten or fifteen years we built bomb shelters to save us at home, while at school we had drills requiring us to hide under our desks, in what would have proven a vain attempt to escape a nuclear holocaust. However, the Cold War did have the positive effect of maintaining a balance. The leaders of each side kept their respective allies/satellites in check. We learned to live with the concept of deterrence. An unanticipated effect of the fall of the Soviet Union has been the greater threat of proliferation, as former Soviet satellite nations have decided to go for the bomb – countries like North Korea.

It is a different world and the President is right in recognizing that a changed environment requires different policies. But the power of deterrence was and is powerful and should not be forsworn. And, as important are defense systems, including missile defense. Establishing such a shield is in the interest of all parties, including Russia. There is little question that both Putin and Russia are interested in re-claiming land lost as the Soviet empire disintegrated. Eastern Europeans want the missile defense shields as much against a resurgent Russia as against a possible nuclear empowered Iran, and Russia knows that. (The recent death in an air crash inside Russia of the President of Poland, Lech Kaczynski, and 96 other Polish officials is providing Mr. Putin, according to Stratfor, a rare opportunity to express sympathy for a man noted for his anti Russian feelings.)

World War I cost 20 million lives and after the war, in January 1919, Woodrow Wilson went to Paris to sign the Treaty of Versailles and promote his dream for a League of Nations, so that the war just concluded would have been “the war to end all wars.” It was the right dream, but it was only a dream and did not take into consideration the natural behavior of man. The concept of a world without nuclear weapons is also, unfortunately, only a dream and success in deterrence requires a level of cynicism that man is also driven by greed and a desire for power.

The immediate problem we face is Iran and the disruption to the Middle East, and in fact the entire world, that their successful development of a bomb would bring. Mr. Obama is hoping that his signing of an arms reduction with Russia last week and the attention this summit brings will strengthen his hand at the U.N., as he asks, once again, for sanctions. He feels, I suspect, somewhat like Stuart Little, as the eponymous book ends: “But the sky was bright, and somehow he felt he was headed in the right direction.” I hope he is, and that he finds his version of Margalo.