"The Election - Some Observations"

Sydney M. Williams

Thought of the Day

“The Election – Some Observations”

November 4, 2010

The election is over. The results (or rather, most of the results) are in and Republicans were clear winners, which was not a surprise. This was the largest shakeup in the House in sixty-two years. Nevertheless, as I wrote last Wednesday the vote was not so a much a vote for Republican policies as it was a repudiation of the President’s agenda, a fact his news conference suggests he fails to understand, or to admit.

From my perspective, the key takeaways are 1) the increasingly obvious split in the country, between the bi-coastal Democrats and the Southern and Mid Western Republicans, and 2) the fact that an increasing number of people split their votes, suggesting that contrary to the President’s comments most people do understand the issues and they voted deliberately. Even in a state as partisan as New York voters split their votes. For example, according to the New York Times, while Schumer and Cuomo both won more than 60% of the vote, the State Senate will be almost evenly split. In Kentucky, where Rand Paul won 55.8% of the vote, the State House will be predominantly Democratic.

If anything, the new Congress looks to be more partisan than the last. The Wall Street Journal reports that twenty-two of fifty-three members of the conservative Blue Dog Democrats lost on Tuesday and five are retiring, whereas only four of the eighty-two members of the liberal Congressional Progressive Caucus lost their seats. At the same time, the Republican Party may look more conservative, as several Tea Party candidates were successful. According to the Wall Street Journal, five Senate candidates supported by the Tea Party were winners – Ron Johnson in WI, Mike Lee in UT, Rand Paul in KY, Mark Rubio in FL and Pat Toomey in PA. In terms of the House, the New York Times suggests that thirty-two Tea Party candidates were elected.

Curiously, money appeared to play a contrarian role. On Tuesday, the New York Times reported that through last Friday Democrats outspent Republicans across all House races ($159 million to $120 million), despite the negative publicity surrounding right-leaning corporate spending. Their spending was more than offset by public unions’ spending on Democrats. In contrast to House races, in Senate races, where Democrats will keep control, Republicans outspent Democrats $159 million to $120 million.

While I continue to believe in term limits, those who disagree will take satisfaction in the concept that voters have the ability to impose term limits every two to six years. However, there are “safe” districts that both Parties enjoy, For example, in New Jersey, which has thirteen Congressional seats, only one incumbent lost – John Adler lost to Jon Runyan. In Harlem, ethically challenged Charles Rangel won his twenty-first race with 80% of the vote.

Republicans did better than expected with Hispanics. If Republicans are smart they will build on this foundation. They won two governorships, both by good percentages: Susana Martinez in New Mexico and Brian Sandoval in Nevada. Marco Rubio will be come Florida’s newest Senator. Mr. Rubio is a young, telegenic, articulate Cuban-American who could become a star in the Republican Party. Surprisingly, in a media-centric world, recent Republican national figures have not been great speakers. Mr. Rubio is.

Governing is more difficult than campaigning. It is easier to criticize legislation than to enact it. As a high school debater, I always preferred the con to the pro. The immediate concern of the lame duck session of Congress will be to deal with the Bush tax cuts scheduled to expire on January 1. The principal challenge for the new Congress will be to deal with the economy. The leaders of both Parties, and the President, must set aside differences and work together. Unemployment remains far too high. Given natural additions to the labor force (about one percent per year) and productivity gains (about two percent), the economy needs to grow at a three percent annual rate just to keep employment even. Republicans must not make the mistake Mr. Obama made when he put healthcare and cap-and-trade ahead of the economy. There may be parts of “ObamaCare” that Republicans would like to eliminate, but their first priority must be the economy. As Daniel Henninger titles his column today in the Wall Street Journal, the GOP must “unlock the economy”. If they don’t, 2012 will reverse 2010.