"The Census - No Real Surprise, Except to Liberals"

Sydney M. Williams

Thought of the Day

“The Census – No Real Surprise, Except to Liberals”

December 22, 2010

The decennial census out yesterday included no real surprise except to liberals. Overall growth, at 9.7%, was less than the two previous periods – 1980 and 2000 – which both averaged about 13%. The shift in the population away from the Northeast and the Midwest (blue states) toward the South and West (red states) continues. Eight states gained twelve seats, while ten states lost twelve seats.

The main political impact of the census is the change in Congressional seats and the apportionment determination that will result when state legislatures meet next year. In that regard, Texas and Florida were the principal winners in the stakes for Congressional seats, picking up four and two seats respectively. Ohio and New York, dropping two seats apiece were the big losers. For the first time since 1930, California did not gain a seat and Michigan was the only state to actually lose population during the decade. Nevada, the fastest growing state, increased its population 35%.

The numbers suggest population expanded by about 28 million during the decade. This morning’s Wall Street Journal indicated immigration accounted for about 13 million, but the Migration Policy Institute, a non-partisan and non profit think tank, suggests that immigrants – legal and illegal – accounted for closer to 18 million. Either way population growth, critical to the long term well-being of a nation, continues to expand, though at a more modest rate than earlier. According to studies at the University of Virginia, Asian and Hispanics were the fastest growing segments, indicating that diversity continues.

The numbers suggest a boon to Republicans. House seats are apportioned every ten years based upon the census and they are determined by state legislators. Beginning next year, Republicans will hold governorships in 29 states, Democrats in 20. (Rhode Island will have an Independent.) The National Conference of State Legislators reports that following November’s election Republicans will hold 53% of total legislature seats, the most since 1928. Indications are that Republicans will have unilateral control in about 190 districts, Democrats in 50. When President Obama admitted that Democrats got “shellacked” on November 2, this is what he was talking about.

However, it would be a mistake for Republicans to become smug. Nothing ever remains the same in politics. Republican’s anti-immigration policies do not play well among rapidly growing Hispanics, who inhabit states, like Texas and Florida, which are gaining Congressional seats.

The country continues to tilt south and west. It continues to become more diversified. While cultural clashes will present some problems, the fact is change and diversity are sources of our country’s strength. Congress however, in part because of the Apportionment Act of 1929 which fixes the House at 435 members, persists in gloriously above the fray. The lack of competition in more and more districts and the enormous expense of mounting a campaign, serves to insulate Congressional members from the people. In 1800, each member represented 50,000 people. Today that member represents 711,000 people. Too many Congress men and women make the House their career, thereby isolating them from the real needs and wants of those they purport to represent – further arguments for term limits.

(As an aside, the Williams family did their bit for population growth. At the start of the decade in January 2000, with three married children, we were eight. Ten years later, with the births of ten grandchildren, we had expanded to eighteen.)

However, there is a serious message embedded in the census numbers. People move to places where they see or perceive opportunity. Tax heavy states were generally the losers and tax-lite states the winners. While commonsense suggests no surprise that Texas, Florida, Arizona and South Carolina proved more desirable – and it’s more than the weather – than New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Massachusetts, it nevertheless must confound liberals who insist on policies that drive people away.