"Pakistan - al Qaeda, Jihadists, the Taliban and the Bomb"

Sydney M. Williams

Thought of the Day

“Pakistan – al Qaeda, Jihadists, the Taliban and the Bomb”

May 26, 2011

The world is a dangerous place. It always has been, but it was the development of nuclear weapons in the last weeks of World War II that provided an extra dimension to that danger. During the Cold War, as school children in the late 1940s and early 1950s, we were (ridiculously) made to hide under our desks during drills and some of our parents built bomb shelters. However, reality was that the U.S. and the Soviet Union dominated and generally controlled their respective spheres of influence. During those years when nuclear weapons were new and feared; the threat of mutual assured destruction (MAD) allowed for a fragile peace – the Cold war – broken by hot wars in Korea and Vietnam.

With the collapse of the Soviet Union, unilateral power descended on the United States. The consequence was somewhat anarchical in that rogue states like North Korea, Syria, Iraq and Iran no longer had the controlling influence of Moscow. Into this chaotic world, nuclear weapons appeared in countries like Pakistan and North Korea. Risk became elevated, (though children no longer have to hide under their desks!) Countries like Iraq and Syria sought such weapons, but thanks to Israel their wishes turned to ashes. It increasingly appears, though, that Iran will become a nuclear power, unless the Israelis once again become the world’s thankless savior.

But where the risk may be the greatest is in Pakistan. India and Pakistan have fought on and off since partition. The Taliban in Afghanistan have long wanted to dismantle Pakistan’s government. In a phone interview with the Wall Street Journal, Pakistan Taliban spokesman Ehsanullah Ehsan admitted that the Taliban’s intention is to “take over Pakistan and its weapons.” The government’s hold on power can best be described as tenuous – the army and the country’s premier security operations, the ISI, seemingly operate independently from Islamabad. And, of course, India lurks menacingly. In terms of population, Pakistan is the sixth largest country in the world. However, it ranks 136th in terms of GDP per capita. According to the IMF, GDP per capita is $2,791, placing the country behind Uzbekistan, Nicaragua and India. In fact, India’s GDP per capita is 20% higher than Pakistan’s.

Pakistan is a nuclear power, having conducted their first tests in 1998, in response to tests conducted by India a few weeks earlier. Pakistan, along with India and North Korea, has never signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. It is estimated that they have between 90 and 110 active warheads. Most of their weapons are hidden in undisclosed locations. To keep them out of reach from possible Indian airstrikes they are presumably sited along Pakistan’s western borders, the area, ironically, most vulnerable to terrorist incursions from Afghanistan. The “father” of Pakistan’s nuclear program, Abdul Qadeer Khan, in 2004 confessed to heading an international black market ring involved in selling nuclear weapons technology. While he denied complicity by the Pakistani government or army, his denials have been questioned. Two years ago he was released after spending five years under house arrest.

Two recent incidents have added fuel to what is already an incendiary situation. On Sunday a team of Jihadists stormed a naval aviation base in Karachi on the Arabian Sea. Details have been sketchy, but estimates suggest that between six and twenty militants were able to make their way into a high-security facility and destroy two naval aircraft. After seventeen hours the base was secured by Pakistani security forces. The attack was apparently in retaliation to the Americans killing of Osama bin Laden. But it served to remind the world of the vulnerability of supposedly secure military locations in Pakistan.

And then on Monday, American-Pakistani terrorist, David Headley testified in a Chicago court that Pakistan’s ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence Agency) was behind the November 26, 2008 bombings in Mumbai. Discovering proof that ISI, Pakistan’s official security force, was involved in the deadly attacks in Mumbai served to confirm India’s suspicions, elevating an already tense situation.

The Taliban, with al Qaeda and their Jihadists terrorists’ allies, would like to see Pakistan and Afghanistan become one large “Talibanistan.” According to Stratfor, the Taliban look upon the United States as critical to achieving this goal. Stratfor’s theory is that the unprecedented unilateral action taken by American forces to kill Osama bin Laden has increased the unpopularity of the U.S. within Pakistan, making it more difficult for the central government in Islamabad to deal with the U.S. as an ally. The Taliban may have killed thousands of Pakistanis, but they also argue that they are their country’s protector against intrusive Americans.

The bottom line is that Pakistan suffers from immense poverty, which helps sow the seeds of self destruction. As hope dwindles, the fear of survival can be assuaged by the promise of martyrdom, of forty virgins, of life everlasting. It is a chilling prospect, perhaps not probable, but also not impossible. The country’s government is highly unstable, but nevertheless it is one in which control and command of nuclear weapons is critical. We and most of the rest of the world have an interest in a stable Pakistan, but how do we achieve that when so many are aligned against us? It is a country in which most of the people have no “skin in the game,” thus the fear of MAD has less meaning. The best hope is an increase in living standards, a fond but, over the foreseeable future, futile wish. In the meantime it is a risky place in a dangerous world.