"Defense - There is no Such Thing as Permanent Balance"

Sydney M. Williams

Thought of the Day

“Defense – There is no Such Thing as a Permanent Balance”

August 25, 2011

Things never remain the same. We age. Man travels by foot in one century and by spaceship in the next. Empires, from Rome to Great Britain, have risen and fallen. During the post World War years, the military might of the United States (the “Inevitable Empire,” according to George Friedman of Stratfor) allowed Western Europe and Japan to grow their economies with little concern for defense. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, America stood alone as policeman of the world. All that is changing.

Earlier this month the “Shi Lang” was launched at Dalian Harbor, becoming China’s first aircraft carrier. The “Shi Lang” is the refurbished Russian carrier, “Varyag”. According to the Chinese official news agency, Xinhua, the 984 foot, 67,500-ton ship sounded its horn three times, as it plowed through the fog and made its way through the harbor.

China’s military prowess is being seen in other venues. Four years ago China shot down a satellite, signaling their prowess in space. Carrier-based missiles mean that U.S. Naval air power would be pushed further into the Pacific. In the next few weeks, China is expected to take its first major step towards building a Space Station, which is expected to be completed in 2020 just as the International Space Station is being decommissioned. Yesterday’s Wall Street Journal carried an op-ed by Michael Auslin, director of Japan studies at the American Enterprise Institute, which spoke to the growing threat from China’s Air Force. Earlier this year China flew a prototype of its fifth generation stealth fighter, the J-20, just as the U.S. was cancelling the F-22 and while the F-35 becomes increasingly expensive and remains behind schedule. The People’s Liberation Army includes about 2.25 million active members. China’s military spending continues to grow. Ours risks stagnating.

The question, as raised by Peter Foster writing in the Daily Telegraph, do these activities “portend America’s gradual slide and China’s inexorable rise?”

The United States today spends approximately 25% of its budget on defense, between 5% and 6% of GDP. Given U.S. budget constraints, that number, as a percent of both budget and GDP, is likely to decline. China’s military budget is unknown. Their government’s published military budget is about $91.5 billion for 2011, while the U.S. Department of Defense estimated China’s 2009 military spending to be $150 billion, or about 2.5% of GDP. Most people suggest that public numbers understate true spending. To put those numbers in perspective, other than the UK and Russia, no West European country spends more 1.8% of GDP on defense.

China’s neighbors are nervous of her growing military power and the influence that brings. India, while having three carriers, spends about one fifth the dollar amounts as does China. Japan spends a little over $50 billion, about 1% of GDP. Japan also has three carriers and an ally in the United States, as does India. SEATO was dissolved in 1977; nevertheless, the U.S. maintains interests in the area. The Chinese, despite the years that have passed, surely remember the Rape of Nanking. That massacre in December 1937, which killed 300,000 of the city’s 600,000 inhabitants, is generally considered the single worst atrocity, in any theater, during World War II. India, which spends about 1.8% of GDP (or $36 billion) on defense, worries about China’s having constructed ports in Burma, Sri Lanka and Pakistan. The Indian Ocean is important to China as they have a need to protect their nation’s trade with a growing number of African and Middle East nations.

Smaller nations are also wary of an expanding China. The countries of South East Asia have a combined population of about 550 million. The Straits of Malacca, separating Malaysia from Indonesia, act as a gateway between the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea. Other choke points include the Lombok Straits and the Sundu Straits. China could declare a naval quarantine in any one of these places and enforce it with tactical naval power. Vietnam, the Philippines and South Korea may have to bend to the will of their more powerful neighbor. Sea lanes traversing the region carry 50% of global trade and 33% of the world’s oil. The conquest of Taiwan (seemingly inevitable) might embolden America’s Western Hemisphere’s enemies, like Cuba and Venezuela.

In the meantime the United States is stretched, both financially and militarily. We may not be on decline on an absolute basis, but we certainly are on a relative basis. We have interests in the area – allies to support, as well as protection for the merchant ships that carry our goods in trade. Annual GDP growth in the U.S., over the next few years, is unlikely to exceed 3%, while China’s will be in the high single digits. Our GDP is almost three times theirs’, but that gap is narrowing. It does not stretch the imagination to conceive of China’s military spending overtaking that of the U.S. in ten or fifteen years.

No one can say what the future holds, other than to say that the balance is shifting and that the direction is inexorable. The biggest unknown is the rate of decline of our relative strength. The most important achievement of the dishonored President Nixon was to open talks with China. That relationship has become more complex in the almost forty years since his visit, as China has become our second largest trading partner and our largest creditor. The region is rich in commodities and in consumers for our products. Among the many critical roles for our President is to keep those lines open.

Changing dynamics within the world, whether military, economic or diplomatic are reasons why life is so fascinating, so difficult to decipher and so challenging. What we deem to be balanced today will surely be out of kilter tomorrow.