“Is the President Beatable?”

Sydney M. Williams

Thought of the Day

“Is the President Beatable?”

February 7, 2012

A sitting President has an enormous advantage over contenders. He has free access to the airwaves and campaigning can be camouflaged as work – and paid for by taxpayers. The office exudes power. When things get dicey at home, he can head overseas, as all Presidents have done in the modern era, and where the press is almost always favorable. And, in this instance, Mr. Obama has a significant edge in terms of money. But the single most important criteria in a Presidential election is the economy and how people feel now, versus how they felt four years earlier. (i.e., Ronald Reagan in 1980: “Are you better off today than four years ago?”)

Despite recent economic numbers improving, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) there are 5.6 million fewer people working today than when the recession began in 2007. And three million more have entered the work force since the last election. Mr. Obama, though, is nothing if not deft. As Daniel Henninger pointed out in his last Thursday’s column in the Wall Street Journal, the President has been distancing himself from his own economy, proposing (“with a straight face”) a new direction: “An Economy Built to Last.” If that is what he is now considering, what has he been doing for the past three years?

Away from Washington and out on the hustings, the President’s campaign is remarkable, utilizing a Léger de main, empathy, demagoguery and outright falsehoods. At the same time, Democrats have raised $139,526,000 for Mr. Obama’s campaign versus $57,113,000 for Mr. Romney, and Mr. Romney may not secure the nomination for another three or four months. Republicans have been attacking one another and appear to be playing defense when it comes to Mr. Obama. However, that is not unusual at this point in the campaign. So, all may not be lost. In late 1950, during the Battle of Chosin Reservoir, the most decorated Marine general in history, General Lewis “Chesty” Puller found himself surrounded. He sent back a message: “We’ve been looking for the enemy for some time. We’ve finally found him. We’re surrounded. That simplifies things.”

Will Republicans be able to exploit weaknesses in Mr. Obama’s armor, as General Puller did the Chinese? Will disjointed Republicans be able to decide on a message that is simple to explain and arouse emotions as well as intellect? The next few months will tell.

As a general observation, Democrats always have it easier in political campaigns than Republicans. It is easier to promise entitlements than it is to educate voters as to why those same entitlements, left as they are, risk bankrupting the country. It is easier to stand up and declare that fairness means the “rich” should pay their fair share, than it is to explain that the “rich” are now paying the largest percentage of federal tax receipts in the country’s history and that almost 50% of people pay no federal income taxes. It is easier to give than to ask.

Mr. Obama’s vulnerability lies with Independents. Independents today comprise about 40% of the electorate and in 2008 he won their vote by eight points – roughly the margin by which he won the election. In 2008, Democrats represented about 36% of registered voters, Republicans, about 27% and most, but not all, of the difference were Independents. About 120 million people voted in that election. Since the 2008 elections, according to a December 22, 2011 article in USA Today, 2.5 million people have left the Democratic and Republican parties, while the number of Independents continues to grow.

It comes as no surprise, therefore, that Mr. Obama has moved toward the center in recent campaign appearances – ignoring those programs he so vigorously pursued in his first two years – those he passed and those he proposed, but did not pass. He is now advocating (or claiming to) policies more acceptable to fiscal conservatives. Republicans, once they decide on a candidate, will have to do the same, move toward the center. No one, Democrat or Republican can win the Presidency without attracting independents, a group that one might characterize as socially liberal and fiscally conservative – and in this election fiscal concerns will rank highest; though recent turmoil in the Mid East, supposedly one of Mr. Obama’s strong suits make him susceptible in matters of foreign policy.

However, as Republicans battle for the nomination, each candidate trying to out-do their competitor in terms of how conservative they are, become less attractive to the Independents they will have to woo in order to win the general election. As a result, many pundits and observers have become increasingly convinced that Mr. Obama is bound to win re-election, perhaps by a wide margin. I am not convinced, though. The election is still nine months away, and a lot can happen.

To win the election the Republican nominee must tack toward the center, but he must remain fiscally responsible. He (for good or bad, the candidate will be a man) must seize the initiative and run a positive “can-do” campaign. He should not run against what the President has done, but explain simply and positively what he will do to get the economy growing faster. He must address the fact that one third of our federal debt – $5 trillion – has been added in the past three years with little to show. He must restore a sense of individual responsibility and halt the move toward dependency. He must have a comprehensive, but simple tax reform package. He must be unafraid to take on the public sector unions, including the teacher’s unions, and call them what they have become – self perpetrating mechanisms for keeping their leaders, and their Democratic supporters, in power. He must start with education and recognize the vitality of the global world in which we live and suggest ways to adapt, not retreat. He must address the issue of unemployment and be prepared with a plan to address it. Correcting it will not be easy, either to do or to explain, but people are intelligent. They get it. The problem needs to be honestly and clearly explained and understandable options for solving must be offered. People can live with temporary pain if they sense that solutions are on the horizon and that they will stimulate growth. And, he must do all this while exuding a sunny, but confident demeanor.

Is President Obama beatable? I believe he is. He has taken the country down a path toward increased dependency and less individual responsibility – a path at whose end lies European socialism. The electorate should not be taken in by his late swing toward the center. Unlike President Clinton, Mr. Obama has a far clearer and more ambitious agenda. But, it will be no walk in the park. Fortunately the economy shows signs of gradual improvement, something that will help the incumbent. But the American people are an intelligent, industrial and independent lot. The right candidate with the right message, articulated in a positive manner can win the day. It will take courage and conviction. Mr. Obama can be defeated, but the job will not be easy.