"The Month That Was - January 2018"

Sydney M. Williams

swtotd.blogspot.com

The Month That Was

January 2018

February 1, 2018

“Bare branches of each tree,

On this chilly January morn,

Look so cold so forlorn.

Grey skies dip ever so low

Left from yesterday’s dusting of snow.”

                                                                                                Nelda Hartmann

                                                                                                January Morn, 2003

New Years’ day in Connecticut was a “chilly January morn.” After a visit with a grandson who celebrated his 13^th birthday, and a visit with old friends, Caroline and I headed south – a six-day pilgrimage to the Hillsboro Club in Hillsboro Beach, Florida. A month later, we are in Cary, North Carolina, midway through a ten-day trip north – and another chilly morning.  

January began with a jolt, at least in much of the United States and in parts of Europe where “Old Man Winter” brought a “Bomb Cyclone” – a drop in atmospheric pressure of 24 millibars in 24 hours. The result was snow, ice and temperatures in the low-single digits. Schools were closed, and travel was interrupted. Away from the weather, the New Year retained old problems: protests in Iran; starvation in Venezuela; the bombing of Syrian Kurds by the Turks; and persistent polarization in U.S. politics, with former moderates like New Jersey’s Cory Booker and New York’s Kirsten Gillibrand aligning their futures with firebrands like Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders.  It also brought signs of thawing: A joint North and South Korean women’s ice hockey team will be fielded at the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang; Gerry Adams stepped down after 37 years as leader of Ireland’s Sinn Fein; The World Bank’s economic forecasts for Britain after Brexit proved too pessimistic, world economies are strong, and the U.S. government’s shut-down ended after three days – though only a two-week reprieve.

Two speeches by President Trump made news during the month: at Davos and his first State of the Union. Like Daniel entering the lion’s den, President Trump went to the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos. He spoke to global elitists who gathered in swirls of self-praise. Mr. Trump said the obvious – that “America first does not mean America alone.” He told them that “America was open for business…There has never been a better time to hire, to build, to invest and to grow in the United States.” He is the first U.S. President to attend, since the womanizing Bill Clinton did so in 2000. The difference is that Mr. Clinton came as a loveable scoundrel – a capstone to his Presidency, in his final year. Mr. Trump’s appearance was more like a Jew entering one of Princeton’s eating clubs in the mid 1950s – they have to accept him, but they don’t have to like him. He spoke of the resurgence in global economic growth, and of the role played by the United States. In his State of the Union, Mr. Trump spoke for an hour and twenty minutes. He talked of his accomplishments in the past year – principally, tax reform and deregulation – and of his wishes for the next three years – immigration and infrastructure. He was interrupted 115 times by applause. He was effective in the use of props in the audience, and eloquent when he spoke of our common history and dreams. But the aging faces of a disdainful Nancy Pelosi and a stony-faced Steny Hoyer spoke volumes of the opposition he faces in the House. What became clear is that immigration reform is joining entitlement reform as a second third rail of intractable political problems. We all agree the current system doesn’t work, but identity politics and a focus on the next election prevents taking the uncomfortable steps necessary to afix long term solutions. Similarly, the demands of non-discretionary budget items (and interest expense) make it difficult to preserve and improve our deteriorating infrastructure, without higher taxes, which would impede economic growth, or borrowing, which would balloon the deficit.

Internationally, Davos dominated the news. While it included leaders from all over the world, it is Euro-centric. It is held in Switzerland, a non-EU country, but one that all European elites envy and admire – its scenery, its wealth, its secrecy laws, and the fact that the country is not subject to the EU’s liberal immigration laws. French President Emmanuel Macron spoke of the need for a “global contract to meet the challenges of…climate change,” in disregard of the estimated 1700 private jets, spewing tons of carbon dioxide, that brought men and women to this resort, where attendees complained about man’s effect on climate, and where, amid champagne and caviar, they bemoaned income and wealth gaps. The irony between what was said and what was done was striking. The theme was anti-protectionism and anti-nationalism. While trade should be free, it isn’t. Mercantilism in China protects national industries, despite what Xi Jinping may say. France protects French farmers. All countries talk free trade; all practice varying forms of protectionism. Free trade is an ideal; fair trade should be the focus.

Domestically, in politics, partisanship persisted unhealthily: the Mueller investigation and the “he-said – she-said” as to Russian collusion; DACA and immigration reform; the assigning of blame for the government shut-down, and the hatred for Donald Trump by the “never-Trumpers” and the “resistance.” These cat fights are reminders that politics is about power, not truth or what’s best for the public. Contrast, for example, the comments by Adam Schiff (D-CA) versus those of Devin Nunes (R-CA) regarding the Justice Department and the firing of Andrew McCabe. Trump’s unpopularity stems, at least in part, because he speaks directly to the American people and his words belie the actions of his hypocritical opponents. It is what people do that should concern us, not what they say. I am reminded of the story of the man who had a thing for ovine bestiality. He once visited his farmer neighbor, a man who claimed his animals could talk. The visitor was skeptical. “Here, I’ll show you,” said the farmer. At the hen house, the chickens said they are happy to provide eggs for the family. The horse told them she was thankful for the oats she receives. The visitor was astonished, but nervous as they approached the pasture where the sheep lived. Speaking up quickly, for fear of what the sheep might say, the visitor blurted out: “Sheep lie!” And, so do politicians, some more than others. Watch what is done, not what is said.

In an experiment that could have far-reaching consequences, the Chinese cloned two monkeys, born eight and six weeks ago. Twenty years ago, in a test-tube technique called somatic cell nuclear transfer, Dolly the sheep was cloned. Since, twenty-three species have been cloned, but the ability to do so with primates had eluded scientists. Now, in principle, the technique could possibly be used on humans – an arena where science has advanced faster than man’s ability to cope with its ethical and moral consequences. Islamic terrorism remains a concern. World-wide, terrorists killed 737 people during the month, according to Wikipedia. Dr. Lawrence Nassar, former doctor for the American gymnastics team and Michigan State University, was convicted, and sentenced to 175 years in prison, for multiple sex crimes. While Dr. Nassar is despicable, what is truly criminal is why did it take so long to expose this creep? What does it say about our culture? Were the children intimidated by the doctor? Did trainers avert their eyes? Was the university culpable? Were parents of these children so consumed with the potential for fame and fortune that they looked the other way? People had to have known. Their silence reflects a moral quagmire.

Preliminary numbers for fourth quarter US GDP came in at 2.6% versus an expectation of 3.0%. The disappointment could be attributed to a surge in imports, driven by strong consumer demand, and a decline in inventories; both are volatile series, subject to change. In Davos, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin argued for a weaker dollar: “A weaker dollar is good for trade.” Despite later claims that his words were taken out of context, his comments suggest a misunderstanding of the consequences of a weak currency. The Dollar, after his remarks, hit a three-year low, and then closed the month lower, at 89.15. Jerome Powell was named the new chairman of the Federal Reserve, replacing Janet Yellen. Elsewhere in the world of economics and finance, German workers went on strike, looking for a 6% increase in wages and a reduction in the work-week from thirty-five hours to twenty-eight! The EU fined Qualcomm $1.2 billion for using its dominant position to squeeze out competitors. Protectionism, anyone?

While IPOs (initial public offerings) have been shrinking, ICOs (initial coin offerings) have been increasing, even as the price of Bitcoin declined 29.5%, from $14,129 to $9,965 for the month. The price of Brent crude topped $70 a barrel for the first time in three years; it closed at $69.06. Larry Fink, part of the global business elite and CEO of Black Rock that manages $6 trillion in financial assets, said the world’s largest companies need to do more than make profits: They “need to contribute to society.” Presumably he is thinking about a “social purpose,” beyond the jobs businesses create, the communities they serve, the suppliers they support, and the local, state and federal taxes they pay. Keep in mind, Black Rock, despite managing more money than any other firm, employs a mere 1300 people and last year paid Mr. Fink $25.5 million. He can afford to be magnanimous, but not all his shareholders are in the same position. Most would prefer he concentrate on returns. As a consequence of the U.S. tax bill, which not one Democrat supported, 200 plus companies have announced bonuses and raises for their hourly work forces – more than the “crumbs” Nancy Pelosi asserted. Are stock indices wagging the dog? A survey conducted by the Index Industry Association, released this month, found that there are 2.9 million stock market indices world-wide, which are published and recalculated daily – about seventy times the number of public companies, according to the World Bank. The DJIA closed at 26,149.39, up 5.8% for the month.

In other news, the President’s Club in London (men only) was closed, after a black-tie dinner that raised money for the Great Ormand Street Hospital and the Evelina London Children’s Hospital was found to have included scantily clad women as hostesses. Phony shocks of disbelief remind one of Claude Raines in “Casablanca.” In a short-sighted move, the two charities returned the money, proving that good intentions can have foolish consequences. The Doomsday Clock, which debuted in 1947 (and has become an outward expression of the politically correct), was advanced 30 seconds to two minutes before midnight, the largest advance since 1953. Mt. Mayon, an active volcano on the island of Luzon in the Philippines, erupted, causing the evacuation of 60,000 people. Mudslides in the Montecito region of California killed twenty. Taking lobbying to a new level, the World Resources Institute (a non-profit) hired the State of Washington’s government to perform work to help advance a “green” agenda. The Administration announced it would support state-requested work requirements for Medicaid. Shortly after Mr. Trump’s alleged comment about “shit house” countries, New York’s Guggenheim Museum offered the White House a gold toilet, in lieu of the Van Gogh requested. Humorous, or disrespectful? It depends on your view. A shooting in a Kentucky high school left two dead. At age 94, former U.S. Senator Robert Dole was awarded the Congressional Gold Medal. The Cleveland, Ohio “polar swim” was cancelled because Lake Erie was frozen. Julian Assange will become a citizen of Ecuador. A false alarm in Hawaii was raised about an in-coming missile attack, reminding us of the boy who cried wolf. The Muslim Brotherhood declared the U.S. an “enemy state.” The reason: the decision to move the U.S. Embassy in Israel to Jerusalem.

In sports, the New England Patriots and the Philadelphia Eagles won their respective divisions, so will meet at the Super Bowl in Minneapolis. Alabama beat Georgia in overtime 26-23 for the national college football championship. Caroline Wozniacki beat Simona Halep to win the Australian Open, her first Grand Slam title. And Roger Federer beat Marin Cilic, to do the same for the men – his 20^th Grand Slam!

Death appeared: John Young, the ninth person to walk on the moon and a man who spent 42 years with NASA, died at age 87. Peter Mayle, an Englishman and writer whose name became synonymous with Provence, died at 78. Warren Miller, who started making ski movies in 1946, died at 93. And the creator of “Beetle Bailey,” Mort Walker, is dead at 94.

The month ended with the rare appearance (last seen in 1866) of a Super, Blue, Blood Moon, on January 31, presumably in celebration of my 77^th birthday! Enjoy February!