Yesterday Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow, which foretells six more weeks of winter. Now I recognize that “global warming” has morphed into “climate change,” an expression with which everyone can agree. Over the billions of years of Earth’s existence, the climate has changed from extreme heat to extreme cold. And there is little doubt it will continue to do so. Years ago, an expression in New Hampshire was: “If you don’t like the weather, wait five minutes.” Even as a youth I recognized the use of hyperbole. Regardless – and perhaps this is age speaking – I do hope the Pennsylvania groundhog is wrong. It seems to me that, while we have not had much snow in Connecticut, the temperatures have been colder than recent years. As the poet Richard St. Clair wrote”
“Every season has its beauty, true –
Yet greening trees my favorite are to view.”
Well, it’s February and we are a couple of months from the first buds appearing, so you will have to make do with this essay on Bitcoins.
Sydney M. Williams
www.swtotd.blogspot.com
Thought of the Day
“Bitcoin & Cryptocurrencies”
February 3, 2025
“Bitcoin is a technological tour de force.”
Bill Gates (1955-)
Co-founder Microsoft
“You can’t value Bitcoin because it is not a value producing asset.”
Warren Buffet (1930-), in a 2018 CNBC interview
Founder and CEO, Berkshire Hathaway
Wisdom is typically attributed to the elderly, but one of our grandsons, a graduate student in modern European history, recently texted me with wise words: “It’s good to not agree with a President on all things.” He was responding to a text in which I had stated some misgivings about a few decisions made by President Trump during his first days in office, including his enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies, as seen in his promotion of two meme-coins, $TRUMP and $MELANIA issued a few days before his inauguration.
………………………………………………………………………………
It is my understanding that the argument for cryptocurrencies, and particularly Bitcoin, is based on a preference for a decentralized monetary system. The concern, which even Bitcoin skeptics like me share, is that countries with fiat currencies, and the U.S. with the world’s reserve currency, have rising and unsustainable government spending, which central banks have accommodated with artificially low interest rates. The subsequent debt has led to inflationary pressures. Debt is limiting options for governments, including needed defense spending. Because of its size and interest costs, national debt may become unserviceable. Bitcoin’s attraction includes the claim that the total number of coins issued will be limited.
I don’t pretend to have special knowledge about cryptocurrencies. But this is what I understand about Bitcoins: The maximum total supply of Bitcoin is supposed to be 21 million, a number it is never expected to reach. As of December 22, 2024, according to Investopedia.com, 19.9 million Bitcoins had been mined. At $100,000 per Bitcoin, the total value of all Bitcoins is $1.99 trillion, or almost 7% of U.S. GDP. The smallest unit of measurement in the Bitcoin network is the Satoshi, which equals 0.00000001 Bitcoins. That would suggest that, at a price of $100,000 per Bitcoin, it would take, if my math is correct, approximately 1,000 Satoshis to equal one U.S. Dollar.
Despite my limited technological expertise, I appreciate the development of blockchain technology, which has allowed Bitcoin to prosper. Blockchain technology, as I understand it, allows for a decentralized, tamper-proof, transparent system to record transactions. Buyers and sellers can maintain separate ledgers, but, with the approval of both parties, their ledgers are updated automatically and simultaneously.
But will (or even, can) Bitcoin substitute for a currency like the Dollar? First, what is money? Money is a medium of exchange, which people accept for the payment of goods and services, as well as for the re-payment of loans. In order to qualify, it must be stable relative to values placed on goods and services and the expectations of creditors. People would not be happy if the price of a movie ticket, a subway token, or a half-gallon of milk changed daily by five or ten percent. Money is critical, as economies rely on it to facilitate transactions and to power economic growth. Given its volatility, would Bitcoin qualify as a currency? With its questionable origins and volatility, I suspect no, at least not at present. It is not a commodity, as it has no inherent economic value like a bushel of soybeans, a barrel of oil, or an ingot of gold. Unlike a business, it generates no cash flow. It is “mined” at a predetermined rate, but it cannot be harvested or slaughtered. It is not an equity, which represents a share of a business, with the potential for dividends, nor is it a bond with a stream of interest payments. It is a speculation, not an investment.
In the fall of 2012 I attended a colloquium in Vienna hosted by the Liberty Fund of Indianapolis and the Hayek Institute of Vienna. Four years earlier a paper, authored by Satoshi Nakamoto (a pseudonymous individual or group whose identity has never been confirmed) and titled Bitcoin: A Peer to Peer Electronic Cash System, was posted to a cryptography mailing list. One of the attendees attempted to explain the reasoning behind Bitcoins, which were then selling for $7,000. Most of what she said was over my head, and I came away as ignorant as I had arrived. Today, part of me feels like the billionaire investor and philanthropist Stanley Druckenmiller who in October 2023 said: “I don’t own any Bitcoin… but I should.” On the other hand, I agree with Mr. Buffet, who once called it a “mirage.”
Who is right, Bill Gates, Warren Buffett, or Cathy Wood who has predicted another ten-fold increase in the price over the next five years? All three are smarter and wealthier than I am. While the current monetary system has served us well, concerns are understandable, especially regarding years of deficit spending and the blossoming of debt to untenable levels. Politicians, in a desire to please constituents, and central bankers willing to accommodate their every whim, have placed us in an indefensible position. My preference would be for Congress and the President to address the difficult concerns regarding how much welfare can a society afford before destroying the economy. In an unstable world where defense spending must be increased, governments must study “untouchable programs,’ like transfer payments, entitlements, and what the threats from aging and shrinking populations (without immigration) mean for the future.
My concerns over Bitcoin are not solely its absence of cash flow or its lack of an underlying asset, it has also to do with the mystery surrounding its founder(s). Who or what is Satoshi Nakamoto? How do we really know that the stated limit on Bitcoin production will hold? The future is never clear, and from my limited knowledge, a fascination with Bitcoins should cause people to read (or re-read) Charles MacKay’s 1841 classic, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, in which he writes of “Tulipmania,” the South Sea Bubble, of witches, crusades, and prophecies of the end of the world. “Men,” Mr. MacKay wrote in the preface, “it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” Any asset that attracts more than two trillion dollars needs investigation. I find it wrong that the President is promoting his own meme cryptocurrencies, while overseeing what may be a speculative craze. Is it herd mentality that is driving the rush to cryptocurrencies? I don’t know, but I advise caution.
………………………………………………………………………..
I support most of Mr. Trump’s agenda, and I am happy he is President; but the Country does not need obstreperous, ideological advocates who blindly support their side. We need wisdom. We need those who think independently to reflect on events. The ability to think for one’s self is the purpose of education, to be skeptical, to avoid being indoctrinated, to maintain perspective. Divided into polar opposite factions, we have lost that ability. “You are either with us or against us,” said President George W. Bush in the fight against terrorism after 9/11. That attitude persists within the electorate; it is in Congress. Dishearteningly, it is in the media, podcasters and pundits. My grandson was right – we should feel free to disagree with those we support. If the consequence is government inefficiency, so be it. Freedom is worth that sacrifice.
Labels: Bill Gates, Cathy Wood, Charles MacKay, Donald Trump, Hayek Institute, Liberty Fund, Warren Buffett