Thought of the Day: "Is There a Way Forward?"

The photo: An approaching storm, as seen from our window at the Oyster Point Hotel in Red Bank a couple of weeks ago. But the sun shone the next day. Some will say I am Panglossian in my optimism, but I do believe the U.S. has the ability to self-correct. In his 2021 letter to shareholders, Warren Buffet wrote: “Despite some severe interruptions, our country’s economic progress has been breathtaking. Our unwavering conclusion: Never bet against America.” To which I add, Amen.

Sydney M. Williams

Thought of the Day

“Is There a Way Forward?”

August 26, 2026

“The free access which many young people have to romanticize novels and

plays has poisoned the mind and corrupted the morals of many a promising youth.”

Reverend Enos Hitchcock (1744-1803)

Memoirs of the Bloomsgrove Family, 1790

Each generation is concerned for the next. Ours is no different. I worry. But should I? For a country at the peak of its economic and military powers, and still a beacon of freedom for the oppressed and the aspirant around the world, the mood of Americans, at least as expressed by some commentators and some in the media, is bleak. On the other hand, foreign visitors to the World Cup appeared to have seen something in America that we natives have missed: they lauded the size of the country, the spirit of its people and their generosity; they praised its abundance – what is available in the stores and the size of its homes and cars; and they noted the freedom of its people. Who is right?

While I remain a long-term optimist, I worry. Is classical liberalism disappearing into socialism on the left and isolationism on the right? Ad hominem attacks have replaced reasoned debate. Self-righteous prigs on the left assume all Republicans to be racists, homophobes, and misogynists, while smug conservatives suppose all Democrats to be Communists and to lack an appreciation of our history.

Most immediately, we face a fiscal crisis. Federal debt recently crossed $40 trillion. As a percent of GDP (121.5% at the end of 2025), it is higher than it was at the end of World War II (119.1%). Entitlement spending in 1960 represented about 25% of the federal budget – roughly the same as defense. Today it is close to 60%, while defense spending has declined to 12 percent. Rising deficits have ballooned interests costs from about 9% of the budget in 1960 to 14% today. We are on an unsustainable path, unaddressed by either political party. Despite Treasury Secretary Bessent’s decision to double the size of long-dated bond buybacks, bond vigilantes will step in if politicians continue to avoid the problem.[1]

There are other concerns: Will autonomous robots surpass human intelligence and be used for nefarious purposes? Studies from Harvard and Stanford indicate that public school student performance has declined for over a decade. Those studies are supported by declining performance of U.S. students on PISA (Programme for International Student Assessment) tests. While major crime figures show a decline, there has been a surge in anti-Semitic incidences. Ethical standards are said to have “evolved,” whatever that means. Church attendance has been declining for decades, and today the average teenager spends five hours a day on social media, versus nine to twelve minutes a day reading books for personal interest. Much of mainstream media lauds the harvesting of eggs but is silent on the benefits of motherhood. According to a March 2026 Pew Research survey only 47% of American see their fellow Americans as morally good.

While stock markets have surged – 62% of Americans are invested in the stock market either directly or indirectly – I worry that a decade of low interest rates have inflated leveraged personal balance sheets. A growing percentage of individuals are involved in speculative pursuits: Approximately 25% have been involved in legal sports betting, about 20% have purchased cryptocurrencies, and 15% have put money into prediction markets, a market that exploded in 2024. Sounds like gambling to me. Falling tech stock prices and excess leverage abetted the July collapse of Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Situational Fund, as assets fell from $45 billion to $10 billion in a month. Was that a harbinger of things to come?

Politics have devolved into the “MAGA” right and the Socialist-progressive left. Politicians are cantankerous. Mr. Trump tells us what a fantastic job he has done, while far-left Democrats promise tuition-free college, making the rich pay their “fair share,” expanding the Supreme Court, and opening our borders.

Party interests soar above national unity, even as we celebrate 250 years of democracy and freedom. Why? And is there a way forward? One is reminded of William Butler Yeats’ 1920 poem, “The Second Coming:”

“Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;

Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,

..................................

The best lack all conviction, while the worst

Are full of passionate intensity.”

But we have been in tough straits before: On December 20, 1860 South Carolina became the first state to secede from the Union; they were followed by ten more states. Seventeen years later, and after the deaths of three quarters of a million soldiers, the Union was, finally, fully reunified. The stock market crash of October 1929 led to a depression that lasted for more than ten years, to the start of World War II. From the late 1960s to the early 1980s, our financial markets were in turmoil: stocks fell 50%; the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond rose from 5.6% in 1968 to 15.6% in 1981; inflation peaked at 15% in March 1980. In late August 1990, after Iraq had invaded Kuwait, British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher admonished President George H.W. Bush with advice that would be good for our leaders today: “Remember, George, this is no time to go wobbly.”

From the first immigrants, America was blessed, geographically, and with a diverse population without aristocratic antecedents. Our government was founded by men schooled in the enlightenment by those like John Locke, Montesquieu, John-Jacques Rousseau and David Hume. It was a land that allowed for experimentation in government – not one founded on military might, royalty, or the church – but one composed, as Lincoln said at Gettysburg on November 19, 1863, “of, by and for the people.”

As for the question that makes up the title of this essay, yes, I am sure there is a way forward. I have faith in the American people. That I cannot chart its course does not mean it is not there. I believe common sense, which has dictated America’s passage through history will prevail. Good men and women will emerge to lead the way. Course corrections will be necessary, but answers will be found. That is not to say there will not be shoals or rough seas; for I am sure there will be. But a way forward will be found. Clouds will dissipate, and the sun will shine.