"A Strategic Mistake?"

Sydney M. Williams

30 Bokum Road – Apartment 314

Essex, CT 06426

www.swtotd.blogspot.com

Thought of the Day

“A Strategic Mistake?”

February 27, 2020

“Hope is not a strategy.”

                                                                                    Attributed to Vince Lombardi (1913-1970)

The strategic mistake to which I refer was the one made by Michael Bloomberg to enter the Democrat primary for President, rather than to run as an independent. At least, that is my belief. The error was understandable in that no third-party candidate has won the Presidency, since the current two parties began competing in 1860. But, to use those over-worked and dangerous words, this time is different. The incumbent is a man who has never received more than 50% approval, despite the fact that the economy and employment are doing well. At the same time, Democrats have moved decidedly leftward, leaving their center undefended.

In his recently published book, A Time to Build, Yuval Levin wrote, “…[political] parties have been de-professionalized, cannot control their own internal processes, and are increasingly exposed to the power and pressure of political celebrity culture.” What he wrote is visible to anyone with eyes to see. The 2016 presidential election changed the Republican Party. The old way of doing things no longer applied. The 2018 midterm elections, which brought Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), Ayanna Pressley (D-MA) and Ilhan Omar (D-MI) to the House, changed the Democrat Party, swinging it far to the left. Optimism for the future was replaced with hatred of the past. In both cases, the change reflects the fact that elections have become less about policy and enacting bi-partisan legislation, and more about platforms for radical ideas. Traditional party members, on both sides of the aisle, have become as isolated from real concerns of the people, as they are distanced from the victorious radical newbies who joined their party. In part, this has to do with the mathematical fact that our national legislature is less representative of the people than it once was. In 1800, the House of Representatives consisted of 106 members; in 2020, there were 435 House members. So, while the overall population has grown by a factor of 72, the number of Representatives has increased by just over four times. In other words, legislators are less representative – in sheer numbers – than they were two hundred and twenty years ago. But these changes also reflect a cultural shift that demeans family, history and tradition. Both Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders have taken advantage of the fact that many voters feel that politics as usual no longer applies.

Mr. Bloomberg is a different breed of cat. After a successful career on Wall Street and then founding an enormously successful, eponymous firm that services Wall Street and the world, he began his mayoralty at a difficult time, January 1, 2002. The attack on 9/11 was less than four months in the past. The stock market, which had peaked in March of 2000, would have another year of decline before finding bottom. He weathered the credit collapse of 2008 and a greatly altered financial industry, a mainstay of employment in the City. Despite some nanny-like instincts, like proposing a ban on sweetened drinks of more than 16 ounces and a grandiloquent decision to seek an unprecedented third term, Michael Bloomberg was a successful mayor of New York. The City’s GDP rose about 25% during his tenure, from approximately $1.2 trillion to $1.5 trillion. He turned a $4.7 billion deficit into a $2.4 billion surplus. New York City’s population declined somewhat after 9/11, but by 2012 was above where it had been when he was sworn in as mayor. Crime rates, which had already fallen in the 1990s, declined further during his tenure: Major felonies were down 40% and murder rates dropped 35% during his tenure. High school graduation rates increased. Mr. Bloomberg, during those years, was more pragmatic than ideological.

His pragmatism could be seen in his party affiliation when he first ran for mayor. Instead of competing in the Democrat primary, he switched parties and ran as a Republican. As Mayor, he expanded the “Stop, Question and Frisk” policy begun by his predecessor Rudy Giuliano. As a consequence, streets were safe and crime rates continued down. He took on the teachers’ unions, especially the United Federation of Teachers, in ending social promotion for students, instituting merit pay for teachers, closing low performing schools, opening more, smaller ones and championing charter schools. He confronted labor unions when policies were harmful to the city’s economy. All of these actions are now an anathema to a Democrat Party that has lurched far to the left; so, he has apologized.

Instead of standing by his record of success, Mr. Bloomberg joined the chorus of leftist progressivism, donning a uniform that ill fits and is unsuitable to a majority of Americans. Theirs is a platform that promotes redistribution over wealth creation. In a column last December, titled, “I Was Once a Socialist. That Changed.”, David Brooks wrote: “Capitalism is really good at doing the one thing socialism is really bad at: creating a learning process to help people figure stuff out.” Capitalism creates a learning process in which the participants – a country’s millions of citizens – make even more millions of decisions every day. Together, we are the system. More than a billion people have been lifted from extreme poverty in the last forty years thanks to capitalism. Socialism, on the other hand, impoverishes the people, while enriching a country’s small band of political leaders. In the best cases, Socialism has had to be modified, to become more capitalist, as those in Scandinavia have discovered. In the worst cases, like Cuba and Venezuela, it leads to tyranny. There is no question about Mr. Bloomberg’s capitalist leanings, but why won’t he defend the system, as Nikki Haley did so well in a recent Wall Street Journal op-ed?    Is it because of the rise of political correctness, which has even infected the Business Roundtable who now call for “stake-holder” capitalism? Without profits, companies fail, owners suffer. But, so do employees who lose their jobs, suppliers who lose business and the communities in which they operate forego the benefits of a prosperous business. The message from a moderate Democrat who wants to look after the working poor and the disadvantaged, but who recognizes that capitalism is critical to our country’s survivability, is the one Michael Bloomberg should have run on. He is his own best example.

The opportunity he had, in my opinion, was not to get into the mudhole with myriad Democrat contenders, but to run as a third-party candidate. It is true that third-party candidates have not had success in our two-party system, at least at the top of the ticket. The last to attempt was Ross Perot in 1992. But this year is different, if I may again use those dangerous words. In 1992, George H.W. Bush was running for re-election against a moderate Democrat, the former Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton. Voters felt safe with either man. This year, Democrats have moved far to the left, and the incumbent, Donald Trump, is a polarizing figure whose poll numbers, while now at their highest, have never been above fifty percent. Should Mr. Bloomberg have decided to run on his success as Mayor of New York – and avoided the political correctness that is swamping the Democrat Party – he might well have become the 46^th President of the United States. He would have attracted Republicans who like Mr. Trump’s policies but who are uncomfortable with his character, as well as Democrats who realize that their Party has spun far away from the mainstream.

It could be that I am mistaken (it has happened before!), and that Mr. Bloomberg is motivated by principle, not power. But I doubt it. The Office of the President of the United States is the most powerful in the world, so serves as a magnet. China and India have more people. Russia has more nuclear weapons. But when one lists nations by wealth, GDP, defense spending or simply the most desirable destination for immigrants, the United States stands alone. Further, the Presidency of the United States has been strengthened over recent years by a Congress that has abdicated much of its responsibility to the Executive and Judicial branches, choosing to walk away from contentious issues like abortion, gun laws and immigration. The Presidency of the United States is the ultimate crown of the politically ambitious, and there are few people more ambitious than Michael Bloomberg.

"Dependency - A Form of Subjugation?"

Sydney M. Williams

www.swtotd.blogspot.com

Thought of the Day

“Dependency – A Form of Subjugation?”

November 29, 2019

“Saint Peter don’t you call me ‘cause I can’t go;

I owe my soul to the company store.”

                                                                                    Recorded by Tennessee Ernie Ford 1955

Slavery is the worst kind of bondage where the individual has no rights and is treated as chattel. It disappeared in the United States with the Emancipation Proclamation on January 1, 1863: “…that all persons held as slave are, and henceforward shall be free.” However, enfranchisement came slowly. It was not until the 19^th Amendment was ratified on August 18, 1920 that women were able to vote. And it was only on August 6, 1965 that President Lyndon Johnson signed the Voting Rights Act of 1965, which enforced the Fifteenth Amendment to the Constitution that had been adopted in 1870. It would be another year before poll taxes – a uniform tax on all individuals regardless of financial means, the payment of which was required in order to register to vote – would be declared unconstitutional by the U.S. Supreme Court in Harper v. Virginia State Board of Elections.

Nevertheless, there are other forms of dependency, not as cruel or degrading as slavery but nonetheless demeaning and inhibiting, like addiction to drugs, alcohol or even social media. And there are forms of dependency that chain individuals to a business, a movement or a state. It is dependency on the state, and all that entails, that concerns this essay.

The elected Washington politician who served because he or she wanted to improve the condition of his or her constituents is a species at risk of extinction. Certainly, there are exceptions, but they have become rare, as the benefits of power, fame and money have grown more ubiquitous for those who serve in Congress. Also, among endangered species is the individual who once traveled to Washington, accepting less pay and longer hours, because he was on a noble enterprise to help fellow citizens. But, with an expanded administrative state, he has become a supercilious, egocentric bureaucrat seeking the monetary and retirement benefits now due a public sector worker.

What has allowed this change to take place? Why is Washington populated with those who more closely resemble Kim Philby than Jimmy Stewart? Government’s bureaucracy has mushroomed in size. We are victims of a public education system more concerned with union demands than instructing our youth, teaching civics, getting students to think independently and acquiring an understanding of the morals embedded in our Constitution. We have a media that no longer serves as an impartial watchdog, having foregone dispassionate investigation for blindfolded advocacy. We have an economy that has made life easier for even the poorest among us, but with the downside of a growing dependence on the state and the loss of dignity that goes with dependency. Independence is no longer seen as something worth fighting and dying for. It has become an opportunity to indulge in hedonistic pleasures, like legally smoking pot, enjoying the lifestyle of the morally corrupt, forgoing the responsibility of parenting, all to satisfy personal egos. We have grown soft with comfort and less willing to endure the hardships necessary to maintain true independence.

In September, the spoiled Swedish teen-ager Greta Thunberg took to the podium at the United Nations and excoriated world leaders, telling them they had betrayed youth through inertia over climate change: “You are failing us.” Did anyone remind her of how capitalism allowed her to be where she was, or the cost of the sailboat on which she traveled to the U.S.? Did anyone tell her that fossil fuels allowed her grandparents to live lives more comfortably than their ancestors, or how gasoline fueled the cars her parents, grandparents and great grandparents drove, and of power generated through fossil fuels that lighted, heated and cooled the homes in which they lived and in which she now lives? Was she reminded that innovation, creativity, risk and reward are critical components to capitalism and necessary for economic growth? Would she prefer the state-mandated policies of socialism or communism rather than capitalism? Would she prefer “Big Brother” monitoring all that she does? We must all be concerned with a changing climate and we should all be environmentally responsible. But the young Miss Thunberg’s attack on world leaders was reminiscent of the accusations by teen-age girls of older women and men in the 1692 Salem witch trials, when an ignorant populous accepted the words of even more ignorant youth.

We saw an exhibition of this ignorance regarding capitalism at the Harvard-Yale football game in New Haven last weekend, when protestors took to the field for almost an hour, demanding their colleges’ endowments divest investments in oil, gas and coal, businesses they claim are destroying the planet. Their protest endangered the players on the field of an unlighted Yale bowl and inconvenienced spectators with an hour delay. Like Miss Thunberg, these protestors overlook economic growth, of which they are the privileged beneficiaries – advancements that have been made because of the energy created from the very sources they want to ban – oil, gas and coal, fossil fuels that heat and cool their homes and college buildings, transport them wherever they want to go and allow the manufacture of products like food, clothing and smart phones that sustain them. None of their comforts would have been possible without fossil fuels. Again, as in Miss Thunberg’s case, we must be conscious of climate change and be environmentally sensitive, but we must also be aware of costs, especially for those less fortunate in poorer communities and in developing countries. In a Monday editorial, the Wall Street Journal quoted a 2013 statement from Harvard’s then president Drew Gilpin Faust: “The endowment is a resource, not an instrument to impel social or political change.” The cost of their education is, in part, subsidized by income from their college’s endowment, an endowment they want to reflect their ephemeral social priorities, not the prudent investments its managers seek.

A citizenry not conversant in history and civics is detrimental to democracy and free-market capitalism. The problem has its genesis in our public schools where social promotion has become accepted policy in big cities, especially those in coastal “blue” states. It is a policy that unfairly targets minorities and the poor and is the embodiment of what President George H.W. Bush called “the soft bigotry of low expectations,” a polite term for racism. That many high schools graduate illiterate and innumerate students can be seen in the number of remedial courses in English and math that are needed by high school graduates matriculating at colleges – an education too often given up after one or two years, but with a debt load that binds the student to the “company store” before a career has even begun.

The risk to society of an undereducated electorate is that such people are too easily led by unscrupulous politicians, more concerned with power than the independence and well-being of the people they represent. Ignorance leads to oppression – a subject that has been discussed for over eighty years in dystopian novels, like Aldous Huxley’s Brave New World, George Orwell’s 1984, Ray Bradbury’s Fahrenheit 415 and Anthony Burgess’ Clockwork Orange.  Huxley provided us the happiness-producing drug soma, used to keep the populace quiet and peaceful; Orwell gave us Winston Smith, The Ministry of Truth and Room 101 for the final stages of reeducation, a place where lawlessness coexisted with binding rules; Bradbury showed us a hedonistic, illiterate society, with endless cycles of life, death in flames and rebirth, and Burgess gave us a preview of the violence that dominates today’s movie and video game culture. Without an understanding of how tyranny arises and with censorship on the rise, lessons from these books have gone unheeded.

The common theme is dependence on the state and the concomitant loss of personal freedom, of accountability and responsibility for one’s actions. Enticing promises of fairness and equality are made, like the commandment of “Old Major” in Animal Farm, that “all Animals are Equal.” The commandment was valid until it no longer applied, when pigs stood on two legs. By the end of the book, when animals outside looked in at pigs and men playing cards, the two were indistinguishable. Yesterday’s rebel became today’s tyrant. Dystopian societies rely on “Thought Police” to maintain order, a concept familiar on college campuses where “group think” is used to combat perceived instances of bias.  

This is not written because of an imminent collapse of our democratic Republic, but because the threat to classical liberalism does not come only from the extreme Right. It is more likely, in my opinion, to stem from the gradual erosion of individual rights and the denial of free expression. Key to a continued and prosperous nation is education – the free exchange of ideas without censorship, where one listens to and entertains all ideas, not just those from one side. Nor do tyrants always appear as cartoon caricatures; they can be gracious and articulate. As I have written before, I have seen nothing from the pugilistic and coarse Mr. Trump that has been as chilling as the 2012 “Life of Julia” video released by President Obama, a video that shows the birth-to-death caring for Julia, dependent on a government cloaked in a false mantle of compassionate concern. Is dependency a form of subjugation? I believe it is. Julia owes her life to the “company store,” in this case the government. Who Will Watch the Watchers? was the title of a book written in 1970 by Edwin Fadiman. With the press having foregone their historic role as guardian of the public interest, it is a question that needs answering. Remember that while we have eyes to see and ears to hear, we don’t always use them. The devil is most dangerous when he hides in plain sight.

"Maurice Chevalier - Reminder of a More Innocent Time?"

Sydney M. Williams

swstotd.blogspot.com

Thought of the Day

“Maurice Chevalier – Reminder of a More Innocent Time?”

August 28, 2019

“Thank Heaven for little girls;

they grow up in the most delightful way.”

                                                                                    “Thank Heaven for Little Girls” 1957

                                                                                    Sung by Maurice Chevalier (1988-1972)

Today’s emphasis on political correctness and identity politics has me thinking of the words above, written by Alan Jay Lerner and Frederick Lowe in 1957 and sung by Maurice Chevalier, in his(as described in the New York Times) “…magical Gallic accent.” My concern:In a nation with its focus on politically correct bromides for climate, identity and equality rather than collapsing infrastructure, failing public schools, a lack of control at our borders and entitlements we can no longer afford, would today’s PC Police permit such a song? I doubt it. Yet the PC Police are silent regarding the horrid, ill-mannered comments from Bill Maher on the death of David Koch. Why? Despite the incivility of the Left and the yearning from some on the Right to return to a time gone by, there is much about today’s world that is better than it was sixty-odd years ago:Civil and Women’s Rights especially, but also more comfortable lifestyles that stem from innovation and economic capitalism, like the ubiquity of air conditioning, the internet and cell phones. But there are also things that are worse.

The Left would have us conform to what they deem is correct – the substitution by the Business Roundtable, of “stakeholders” for “shareholders;” the granting of privacy to college students, which supersedes the interests of their parents; the acceptance of multiple layers of genders (New York State identifies thirty-one categories); a theocratic belief that man is solely responsible for climate change; that a ban on guns will eliminate mass shootings; that the answer to the immigration crisis is open borders, and that healthcare and college tuition should be free – it is a world out of “1984” where government dictates what we say and do.

These demands on the part of the Left are bereft of common sense: The owners of a public business are its shareholders. If the business is not profitable, no one benefits, certainly not its shareholders, but also not its employees, customers, suppliers, or the communities in which it operates. Students, at age 18, may be adults in the eyes of the law, but protecting them against “harmful speech” suggests they are children, at least in the minds of university administrators. Not all people are heterosexual, but biologically there are only two genders. To pretend otherwise, in the interest of “inclusion,” is to deny reality. To the extent we lose sight of that, society collapses into a miasma of hedonism. Anyone participating in a mass shooting must be mentally deranged. Can you, the reader, imagine doing such a thing? Also, how many mass shooters have been members of the NRA? According to the Washington Post, none. The climate is in constant flux. It always has been, and it always will be. Man has had an impact, but no one knows to what extent. Rich nations can afford to address the environment, while poor ones must focus on survival. If we want to reduce pollutants, we must help poor nations become wealthy. A country without borders is not a country, and if it has borders should it not defend them? Free healthcare and college tuitions are oxymorons. Apart from liberty in democracies and bad advice everywhere, there is no such thing as “free.” In this Seussian world, commonsense has given way to inanity.

In this race to destroy what has taken the United States 243 years to build (not 400 years, as the New York Timeswould have us believe), there is something else we have lost. And that is a lightness of touch, a sense of humor, the ability to laugh at one’s self and the enjoyment of words and music without fear of offending. People should be naturally considerate of others, just as they should take responsibility for actions they take. Empathy is a positive trait. The Golden Rule is something to which we should all adhere, but it should be learned at home, in kindergarten or in church, not as a policy prescribed by the State.

Yesteryear was not such an innocent time. Since time immemorial, powerful but immoral men have taken advantage of innocent – and a few not-so-innocent – women. Franklin Roosevelt had Lucy Mercer Rutherford; Dwight Eisenhower had Kay Summersby; Jack Kennedy had a number of ladies who shared his bed, among them Judith Exner, Mary Pinchot Meyer and Mimi Beardsley; Lyndon Johnson had Madeleine Duncan Brown; George H.W. Bush had Jennifer Fitzgerald; and Bill Clinton, like his predecessor JFK, engaged in  multiple affairs with a long list of women: Paula Jones, Gennifer Flowers and Monica Lewinsky, to name just a few. The point is not to excuse sexual exploitation of women – Eliot Spitzer, Anthony Weiner, Harvey Weinstein and Jeffrey Epstein deserve the condemnation society has provided – but to suggest perverts have always been among us, and that includes some of our Presidents who should never be seen as paragons of virtue.  

It is not innocence we have lost, but a moral sense that has gone adrift. It has floated off without an anchor, an anchor chiseled from the institution of family and forged in the furnaces of churches, synagogues and schools. We have lost a sense of right and wrong, honor and dishonor, good and evil, the important versus the frivolous, truth versus lies, respect versus neglect. For most of his existence, man’s life was a struggle to survive, to find water, food and shelter. It has only been in the past hundred or so years that the average Western man has had the leisure to pursue such pleasures as vacations and has had the time to advocate for causes like the environment. But too much free time has given rein to trivial pursuits. We must recognize that to live together peacefully we need be respectful and use good manners. These are the civilities that make life endurable. While women and men have equal rights, we have lost a sense of graciousness that reflect our differences. Doffing one’s hat, opening doors were not expressions of man’s condescension toward women, but acts of deference. Civility and communality go hand-in-hand. As most of us are not hermits or recluses, such acts of decency are integral to our lives. 

So, when you next hear Maurice Chevalier sing about little girls growing up in the most delightful ways, don’t take it as sexist or demeaning, but as it was intended, a song to love, life and distinction. With four sisters, one wife, one daughter and six granddaughters, I can assure you they do – grow up, that is, in the most delightful ways.

The Month That Was - December 2018

Sydney M. Williams

swtotd.blogspot.com

The Month That Was – December 2018

January 1, 2019

“The rapid nightfall of mid-December had quite beset the little village,

as they approached it on soft feet over a first thin fall of powdery snow.”

                                                                                                            Kenneth Grahame (1859-1932)

                                                                                                            Wind in the Willows, 1908

January is not only a time we look back, but, like Janus, it is a time we try to penetrate an impenetrable future. In doing so, we must remember that predictions, no matter how analytical and allegedly impartial, are influenced by ideologies and biases. However, I suspect we all agree that the 2020 Presidential race began as soon as the ball dropped in Times Square. The Democrat field will be crowded. Youth and idealism will challenge age and experience. Far-Left socialists will combat centrists. On the Right, the big questions:Will Republicans try to unseat President Trump?Or will Mr. Trump decide one term was enough, declare victory and retire?After all, he will turn 74 in 2020, and the Presidency is not where most people would choose to spend their “golden” years. Of course, he is not “most people.”

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Back to December. It was a month of contrasts, like the opening sentence in A Tale of Two Cities, “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair…” The economy was the strongest in a dozen years, yet stocks fell. Equities saw their biggest Christmas Eve sell-off in history. On the next trading day, they had their largest point gain ever. Questions arose: Should President Trump be true to his campaign promises, or should he compromise? He is condemned for not doing so; he is condemned when he does so. Is nationalism a force for evil, as Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron claim? Or is nationhood necessary for liberty, as most conservatives believe? Are those who voted for Brexit and Donald Trump, and who have rallied against the state and the corrupt policies of elites in business, finance and government ignorant, or are they battling elitism, statism and the status quo? Are people better off when the focus is on identity – intersectionality – rather than the individual? Will millennials bend toward capitalism, or will they lean toward socialism? Did Michael Flynn lie, or was he entrapped? Has an increase in carbon dioxide allowed the earth to become greener and more productive, as a NASA survey last month alleged, or will it be the death of the planet, as Kyoto and Paris assert? Has there ever been a U.S. President more critically scrutinized and more vilified by MSM than Donald J. Trump?  

Hypocrisy among politicians is an unfortunate fact, as is affectation in the media. We saw it in the multi-day George H.W. Bush memorial and burial, which was an over-the-top extravaganza, even for a decent and accomplished man – Air Force One from and to Houston, a memorial service at the National Cathedral and another the next day at St. Martin’s Episcopal Church and then a slow train ride to the burial site in College Station. It was a send-off usually reserved for kings and potentates. But it felt like those who had long condemned the man and his politics were trying to atone for what they had done, or were they using his death to contrast the polished, gracious Mr. Bush with the brash, artless Mr. Trump?

There was always a sense that Mr. Bush’s WASPish background was decent and ethical. His love for his family was appreciated, especially by those who believe in strong family values. But there was something surreal, in fact disquieting, in the adulation by the media for a dead white man they had ridiculed while alive. We expect dissimulation in our politicians but, in vain, look for objectivity from the press. Mr. Bush came to the oval office at a pivotal time, but the great events then occurring were a result of two previous politicians – Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher – who oversaw the blood-less overthrow of the Soviet Union, which ended the Cold War and allowed Eastern Europe to ally with the West. Operation Desert Storm chased Saddam Hussein and the Iraqi army out of Kuwait but didn’t stop him from killing 50,000 to 100,000 Iraqi Kurds in the north and Shiites in the south. The failure to destroy him, along with 9/11, were prologue to the invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the never-ending Second Gulf War.

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While disagreements over control of illegal immigrants led to a partial government shutdown at the end of the month, the impact is felt more in the media than in most people’s lives. Immigration is solvable, but both sides prefer to keep the issue alive. Semantics is part of the problem. A “wall” denotes keeping people in as well as out. Even President Trump has suggested using another word, if that helps effect a more secure border. He asked the Senate to end cloture, so that a simple majority vote could be taken – a decision that, in my opinion, would be a mistake, as filibusters help protect the rights of minority parties. Such a change would haunt Republicans, as Democrats discovered in 2018 after Harry Reid’s decision to use the nuclear option for judicial appointments in 2013. A government shut-down became inevitable when Mr. Trump, on TV and in front of Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi, said he would take responsibility, an offer so good negotiations never began. Mr. Trump stayed in Washington, while Ms. Pelosi vacationed in Hawaii.

Changes in Administrative personnel amounted to “chaos,” according to a mainstream media. Whether true or not, change can be disruptive. Heather Nauert, State Department spokeswoman and former Fox News correspondent, will replace Nikki Haley as Ambassador to the U.N. William Barr, Attorney General under George H.W. Bush, will replace Jeff Sessions. Chief of Staff John Kelly will be replaced by Michael Mulvaney, currently Director of the Office of Management and Budget. Defense Secretary James Mattis will leave on January 1, to be replaced, temporarily, by Deputy Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan. In a controversial decision, Mr. Trump chose to withdraw 2000 U.S. troops based in Syria and to begin bringing home half the troops stationed in Afghanistan. He explained: “We have defeated ISIS in Syria, my only reason for being there…” On a surprise Christmas visit to troops in Iraq, President Trump reiterated, to a standing ovation, his position on Syria.

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Overseas, the month began with a meeting of the Group of 20 in Buenos Aires.  The choreography was fascinating, as presidents and prime ministers pirouetted away from being photographed with the despised Saudi Prince Mohammad bin Salman. The exception was Vladimir Putin who high-fived the man as he sat down, sending a message that he approves of killing and dismembering dissidents. The Intergovernmental Conference on the Global Compact for Migration met in Marrakech to approve a previously adopted UN resolution for safe, orderly and regular migration. Its purpose, “to cover all dimensions of international migration in a holistic and comprehensive manner.” That sounds good, but, when one sees what those policies have done to our southern border and what has happened (and is happening) in Europe, should we be surprised when so many question the wisdom of the “established liberal order”? Another boondoggle, for which we in the U.S. pay the largest share, was the climate meeting in Katowice, Poland, where signatories to the 2015 Paris Accord agreed to implement rules laid out three years earlier. One consequence was a protest in France. Too often, bureaucrats fail to include economic costs of feel-good policies. Russia successfully flight-tested their Avangard Hypersonic Glide Vehicle, an ICBM that travels at twenty times the speed of sound. The system, as Putin explained “is impervious to current and future air defense and missile defense systems of a potential enemy.” The missile, first announced last spring and its launch last month, is a violation of the INF Treaty, and explains why President Trump withdrew from that treaty in October. In another blow to globalism, Japan exited the International Whaling Commission.

Theresa May survived a no-confidence vote, 200 to 117. Those voting against her were hoping for a strong Leave-supporting leader to emerge. The risk, as they saw it, is that the U.K. becomes a vassal state, locked into the EU without a voice. Elitist European leaders in Brussels, already distanced from the people they represent, are shortsighted in making themselves unpopular with middleclass Europeans who have a sense of patriotism toward their heritage and native countries. If Parliament does not approve the deal Mrs. May negotiated a “hard” Brexit may ensue, or possibly an abandonment of Brexit, meaning the will of the people has been abrogated. Those who voted for Brexit in 2016 wanted to take back their sovereignty and their courts, not have them tied to unelected Continental bureaucrats in Brussels and Strasbourg. This battle for Britain – a restoration of middleclass values and incomes – is one being played out in other nations, including the United States. It is a fight between those who believe in the rights of the individual versus the might of tribalism. It raises the possibility of an all-powerful state and the bureaucracy it supports. Unlike past democratic disagreements, this is a fight over ends, not means. Emmanuel Macron, the sanctimonious President of France, finally bowed to the gilets jaunes: He granted an increase in the monthly wage of a 100 Euros per month, with a promise that overtime pay would be exempt from tax and social charges, and that the planned tax on pensions under 2,000 Euros a month would be cancelled. He also said that the fuel tax surcharge would be suspended. But he refused to reinstate a higher tax on the wealthy.

Churchill’s definition of Russia, as “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma,” applies to the Middle East. Two Muslim countries, Iran and Saudi Arabia, are locked in a battle for supremacy – Shia versus Sunni, with Yemen and Syria as battlefields. A temporary ceasefire was negotiated in Yemen. Turkey and Iran are aligned against the Kurds and, thereby, against the U.S. Both see Syria as opportunity. The murder of Jamal Khashoggi disrupted our alliance with Saudi Arabia and may have allied us more closely with Erdogan’s Turkey, a country deemed “not free” by Freedom House. No matter, the U.S. remains committed to the region. Withdrawing troops from Syria and some from Afghanistan does not mean the U.S. is abandoning the Middle East militarily. The United States has over 50,000 troops stationed in a dozen Middle East countries. World-wide, the U.S. has 165,000 soldiers deployed in 150 countries. 

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As for markets and the economy, “the future,” as the song goes, “is not ours to see.” I have long taken a perverse view of markets. When they rise, I know that at some point they will fall; and when they decline, I know that they will, at some future time, go higher. But I also know the long-term trend is upward. So, I don’t worry as much as others. It is dividend growth that concerns this aged ex-stock broker, not the timing of markets, something impossible to predict. Will a recession occur in the next couple of years? I don’t know. I do know Democrats are hoping so, and I also know we are not immune from one. We have lived through nine and a half years of economic growth, in which manufactured low rates played a role, and now, finally, they are beginning to normalize. On the positive side, the middle class is catching up. Wages and salaries were up 3.1%, the fastest growth in a decade, and Christmas sales were the strongest ever. Low interest rates have helped equities, which have risen three-fold in ten years, but low rates have done little for oil, gold, Bitcoins and home prices. Nevertheless, I am not overly concerned. In my opinion, we have seen nothing, thus far, that would compare to the high inflation rates and despondency of the 1970s, to the late 1990s tech bubble or to the credit crisis of 2008.  But equity and oil markets swooned in December. Both were lower by 10% for the month, with crude down 25% for the year and the DJIA down 7%. In terms of daily volatility, the month of December was the most volatile since November 2011. The VIX rose for the year and the month, peaking on Christmas Eve. Bond yields rose for the year, though they fell in December. The reverse was true for gold. The Dollar rose for the year but fell in December.

What should concern people over the long term is not a possible trade war with China, higher interest rates, climate change or stock market performance. The existential threat we face is demographics – a dearth of births and an aging population. In 1957, 4.3 million babies were born in the U.S., then with a population of 172 million. According to a report issued last month by Lyman Stone of the American Enterprise Institute for Family Studies, there were 3.9 million births in 2017. In 1957, the median age in the U.S. was 29; today it is 38. Life expectancy in 1957 was 69.5; today it is 78.8. In 1957, the population of the U.S. grew 1.7%. Last year it grew at 0.6 percent. Between 1957 and 2017 real GDP growth compounded at an annual growth rate of 3.05%. Over the past ten years, it has compounded at less than two percent. Even with immigration numbers included, nine states saw population declines in 2017, including New York, Illinois and my state of Connecticut. Those numbers are concerning. Who will pay for our aging population? Longevity is increasing and the workforce is shrinking. Can a country continue to grow once its population begins to decline? Is immigration the answer or should government encourage more births This is a world-wide problem. The situation in Europe, Russia, Japan and even China is direr than in the U.S.

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In other news domestically, a Marriott data breach left 500 million people exposed. Mr. Trump’s former attorney, Michael Cohen was sentenced to three years in jail for financial crimes and lying to Congress. In a single session before the House Judiciary Committee, former FBI Director and current Trump critic James Comey, replied 245 times: “I do not know,” or “I do not recall.” Scott Walker of Wisconsin signed three bills before leaving office: To give the legislature power to block administrative rules, including the banning of guns; to codify voter ID and Medicare work requirements, and to restrict early voting to two weeks. In Arizona, Martha McSally, who lost a close race for the Senate to Krysten Sinema, was appointed to the Senate to fill out the remainder of John McCain’s term. Elizabeth Warren announced the formation of an exploratory committee, making her a likely candidate for President in 2020. After a twenty-three-year run, the Weekly Standardclosed. Its circulation had shrunk by double digits in every year except one, since 2013. Fred Barnes, executive editor and co-founder, noted that the magazine’s “criticism of Trump affects circulation negatively.” But its problems predated the 2016 election. Two Guatemalan children – ages seven and eight – died of illness while in U.S. custody, after crossing the border illegally. Following a two-year trip, the robotic explorer Osiris-Rex came within twelve miles of the asteroid Bennu, where it will remain in orbit for a year. And Congress can’t solve immigration? Colin O’Brady became the first person to complete a solo crossing of the Antarctic. 16-year-old Kansan Braxton Moral will receive two degrees in May – his high school diploma and a bachelor’s degree from Harvard. 

Political correctness made its way across the country. The Harvard Medical School released a statement in which they condemned the decision by the Health and Human Services Department to explicitly define sex “on a biological basis that is clear, grounded in science, objective and administrable.” They responded: “Harvard Medical School is staunchly opposed to any efforts by federal agencies to limit the definition of sex as an immutable condition determined at birth.” That was an odd retort from a science-based institution. For decades, the Frank Loesser-penned song, “Baby, it’s Cold Outside,” which won an Academy Award for best original song in 1949, was a staple of the Christmas season. No longer. Several radio stations banned it, claiming it is a “prelude to rape.” Speaking of Christmas, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the 29-year-old newly-elected Representative from New York’s 14^thDistrict, told us that Joseph and Mary, with Mary pregnant with the baby Jesus, did not travel from Nazareth to Bethlehem to comply with orders from Roman census-takers. No, they were refugees, like Guatemalans scrambling to reach the U.S. border.

Falling into the political correctness trap is easy. In an interview with the New York Times, James Dyson, British inventor and industrial designer, referred to Asia as the “Far East,” an error for which the Times felt obligated to issue an apology. A black teenage wrestler, Andrew Johnson, was forced to cut his dreadlocks by a white referee, or risk forfeiting his match. The incident became a media sensation, and the referee became persona non grata. But in August 1962, at Fort Dix, a young white male Army recruit (me) was forced by a black first sergeant to have his hair cut. That event went unrecorded and unremarked. There are differences, certainly, but one wonders: Is there a bigger message regarding attitudes of respect toward authority figures? The politically correct Jeff Bezos said Amazon wants to cut the CRaP (Can’t Realize any Profit). As a member of the Leftist establishment, mainstream media left him alone, despite the impact on manufacturers of low-priced consumer goods. Clemson Professor Todd May wrote a piece for NYTimes.com: “Would Human Extinction Be a Tragedy?” In his answer, he was ambivalent – there would be suffering “among those who have much to lose by dying…but the prevention of future humans from existing would cause no suffering.” And for this analysis one pays $48,500 a year!

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In other news internationally, a Christmas market in Strasbourg was the scene of a gunman yelling “Allahu Akbar.” Cherif Chekatt killed five and wounded eleven. Chekatt, a self-styled Jihadist, was known to the police who obviously weren’t paying attention. During the month, the Democratic Republic of Congo twice put off the presidential election, an election already delayed by two years. However, the vote did get underway on Sunday, December 30. The most recent excuses were an Ebola outbreak and a fire on Christmas day that destroyed voting materials for nineteen of Kinshasa’s (the capital) twenty-four constituencies. President Joseph Kabila has been in office almost eighteen years. He doesn’t appear anxious to leave. (But the West forgets how slowly democracy evolved in Western Europe and even in the United States. While the U.S. achieved independence through revolution, democracy has been an evolutionary process). Europe’s liberal order, which emerged from the ashes of World War II, is at risk of self-immolation: For example, the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation, a regulation that claims to protect the privacy of consumers within the EU, deemed the sending of corporate Christmas cards a violation. 

Iran, a preferred trading partner of Germany and France, launched a ballistic missile capable of delivering nuclear weapons to southern Europe. Denmark announced that anyone who takes Danish citizenship be required to shake hands at the naturalization ceremony. The policy is aimed at Muslims who refuse on religious grounds to touch members of the opposite sex. For the Miss Universe contest, Spain nominated a transgender, providing viewers a full-frontal view of political correctness. Australia announced that it recognizes West Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and will move their Tel Aviv embassy once a peace settlement is announced. The eruption of volcanic island Anak Krakatau in Indonesia caused a tsunami that killed 430 and injured 1500. A roadside bomb, hit by a tourist bus near the pyramids of Giza, killed four and wounded ten. In retaliation, Egyptian police killed forty alleged terrorists who, police said, were planning a series of attacks. Dutch TV personality, Emile Ratelbard, who last month filed suit to get his age lowered from 69 to 49, lost his case in court.

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Death claimed Penny Alexander at 75, the Laverne of “Laverne and Shirley” and director of “Big,” the first film directed by a woman to gross over $100 million. Bob Bryan, one half of the comedy duo “Bert and I,” died at 87. Richard Overton, America’s oldest World War II veteran, died at 112 in Austin, Texas. Scott Coby, with whom I worked forty-five years ago, died at 75. And my brother George’s Westphalian mare Rocher, the U.S. Equestrian Federation’s horse of the year in 2003, died at 27.

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With the next election less than two years out, political rhetoric will ratchet higher. While there were periods when politics were less contentious, roots of polarization run deep. In 1869, Anthony Trollope published Phineas Finn, the second in his Palliser series. He wrote about the fraternity of Parliamentarians when off the floor:“It is not so in the United States. There the same political enmity exists, but there, political enmity produces private hatred. The leaders of parties there really mean what they say when they abuse each other.” His words, written in the aftermath of the Civil War, suggest what we experience today is something our Country has seen before. The French have an expression:“Plus ca change, plus c’est la même chose.” We live, as the Chinese saying goes, in interesting times. 2019 will be filled with surprises. What will they be?I have no idea, but the spectacle should be fun, as long as our Republic does not suffer irreparable damage.

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With those as final words for 2018, I wish you a happy, healthy and more civilized 2019!