"Chameleons Who Masquerade as the Media"

Sydney M. Williams

www.swtotd.blogspot.com

Thought of the Day

“Chameleons Who Masquerade as the Media”

May 1, 2020

“I was always an unusual girl.

My mother told me I had a chameleon soul, no moral compass pointing due north,

no fixed personality; just an inner indecisiveness that was as wide and as wavering as the ocean.”

                                                                                                            “Ride Monologue”

Linda Del Rey (1985-)

American singer, songwriter

Mainstream media spent the last three and a half years trying to destroy President Trump, or, if not him personally, his Presidency. He was accused of having had Russia interfere in the 2016 election on his behalf; a two-year, $35 million investigation by Robert Mueller exonerated him. Second, he was impeached and tried in the press for abuse of power and obstruction of justice. He was found innocent. Then, he was said to be responsible for thousands of deaths because of his slow response to COVID-19. One snarky reporter asked him if he deserved another term, as more people had died from the virus than had died in the Vietnam War. No mention was made of the 100,000 Americans who died in 1968 of the H3N2 virus. Mr. Trump has been accused of racism, misogyny and xenophobia. He is said to be scientifically illiterate with demagogic tendencies. Yet none of the charges have proved legitimate and none of them have caused him to change his behavior. The media remains undeterred. In Ground Hog Day fashion, they persist in their assassination of his character. Like chameleons, they change to suit the goal.

By the end of June, other concerns will face Mr. Trump’s opponents, among which will be the Durham report. His critics will be looking for other ways to expose his weaknesses. By the end of July, second quarter preliminary GDP estimates will be out and his critics will accuse him of causing a second Great Depression. The preliminary estimate for the first quarter, reported on Wednesday, showed an annualized decline of 4.8%, a quarter that included only two weeks of lockdown. Early estimates for the second quarter range from –20% to –30% by Kevin Hassett, former economic advisor to the President, to –40% by J.P. Morgan, with unemployment expected at 20%. In fact, in the past six weeks 30 million Americans have filed for unemployment, almost 20% of the 160 million labor force. These numbers rival or exceed what happened during the Great Depression. During that time, U.S. GDP declined 15% between 1929 and 1932 and unemployment reached 25 percent. For political purposes, the economy will supplant COVID-19 as the focus of the media. And who will be deemed responsible for that decline? Why, Mr. Trump, of course.

Mr. Trump is not a man without faults. But his critics are unprincipled. Consider the Steele dossier, paid for by the Clinton campaign in 2016, the politization of the IRS, FBI and the CIA by the Obama Administration, or the abuse of power by Representative Adam Schiff (D-CA) in his futile impeachment of the President. Consider the financial ties of the Bidens’ to Ukraine and China, and the Clinton’s financial dealings with Russia. Politics is a rough game, often played by the unprincipled whose sole goal is to win. With power as the objective, patronage is the lubricant with which loyalties are formed and votes are secured. The bureaucracy of the administrative state wields enormous influence and Trump, an outsider, was always a threat to the comfortable way of life of those who reside inside the beltway.

As for COVID-19, facts about death rates have been manipulated and used to justify lockdowns: According to NPR on April 20, 58% of deaths in New York State from COVID-19 occurred in nursing homes in New York City. The CDC says that 80% of deaths occur in those over age 65; other organizations put that number higher. According to broadcaster WBEZ, 81% of deaths in Chicago are individuals with hypertension, high blood pressure or diabetes. The total number of deaths has been exaggerated: On April 8, Dr. Deborah Birx said: “…if someone dies with COVID-19 we are counting that as a COVID-19 death.” Perspective is needed. While COVID-19 is a novel virus, we still have been fed a diet of misinformation with a sauce of fear. A rational policy reaction that protected the vulnerable, practiced commonsensical health practices, like social distancing, masks where needed and scrubbing one’s hands would have allowed the economy to adjust naturally. The assumption that people are irresponsible – that they need to be under the tutelage of government officials – is the way of dictators to justify a totalitarian state.

The result is the economic downturn we have been in for the past several weeks. As George Gilder, Senior Resident Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, wrote recently: “President Trump had better take notice. He will soon own this gigantic botch of policy and leadership. No one will notice that his opponents urged even more policy blunders.” This recession (depression) will become the story over the next several weeks, one even “blue-state” governors will be unable to ignore. Connecticut, for example, is a small state of 3.5 million people, but it includes 8500 restaurants with 160,000 employees. Ninety percent of them are out of work. Most of the restaurants are small, family-owned places. Many will go bankrupt. Restoring the economy must be Mr. Trump’s priority.

President Trump must pivot to the economy. He had better understand the risk if he does not, and I suspect he does. He cares, I believe, for what has happened to out-of-work families. He is anxious to set the economy free, or, at least, freer than it has been. He has had a surfeit of advisors, not all with good advice. As for the public, misinformation has been the common experience. When models, which were proved inaccurate, showed devastating consequences, stringent measures were imposed, like shutting off flights from and to Europe and the UK and shutdowns of businesses, sports venues and schools. Throughout January and into March, the media never questioned the models and/or the conflicting assumptions made by medical experts and scientists. They took on faith what China said. Their interest was Trump destruction, not truth. The media has, as the song goes, “a chameleon soul” with no moral compass to drive their opinions. As a result, Americans never received a true picture of the virus.

While the press is filled with tragic stories of loss and happy stories of survival, at least two aspects of our three-and-a-half-month experience with COVID-19 do not show us in a good light: one is the willingness of people to obey without question those in positions of authority; the second is an on-going pessimism for the future, already reflected in declining marriages and birthrates. Both are in contrast to traits that helped create the American nation. We are told to wear masks, for example. So, people wear them, even outdoors when alone where the mask interferes with healthy air breezes. The optimism embedded in the image of a “city on the hill,” memorialized by John Winthrop in 1630 and then by Ronald Reagan in 1989, has become what Daniel Henninger called a “mind-set whose instinct is to diminish hope.”

Yet there are those who look at the facts and see promise. Mitch Daniels, president of Purdue University, recently sent a letter, “sober about the certain problems COVID-19 virus represents,” but welcoming students in August. Other voices of optimism are governors and those who plan to open, under guidelines, their businesses. It would be good to hear President Trump give one of his speeches – not a bickering exchange with the press – but one like those he gave in Warsaw, London and Davos, where, in grandiloquent terms, he elevated hope, not away from reason but toward a way out of the mire of negativity into which we have fallen, with COVID-19 and our excessive response. With a “can-do” attitude, the economy just might come back, perhaps stronger than ever.

           

"What is a Person to Believe?"

Sydney M. Williams

www.swtotd.blogspot.com

Thought of the Day

“What is a Person to Believe”

April 17, 2020

“A wise man proportions his belief to the evidence.”

David Hume (1711-1776)

Scottish philosopher, historian

An Inquiry Concerning Human Understanding, 1748

We are told we live in an era of science. Neil deGrasse Tyson wrote, “the good thing about science is that it’s true, whether or not you believe in it.” But is that really so? Does not science change as new evidence is gathered? Statisticians use models to justify their findings. Yet models are only as good as their inputs. The epidemiologists’ models we have seen regarding COVID-19 have changed markedly over the past few weeks. In mid-March, Imperial College in London predicted 2.2 million deaths in the U.S., with no mitigation. By the first of April, modelers at Oxford saw that number drop to a range of 100,000 to 240,000, with some mitigation. Now the estimate is 60,000. A University of Virginia model shows COVID-19 will peak this summer, while Health Metrics Evaluation at the University of Washington suggests the virus will “peter out” in May. Models make assumptions about, among other factors, human behavior, the measurement of which is an art? What is a person to believe?

If we are to base our beliefs about COVID-19 on the basis of “evidence,” it is unsurprising that confusion abounds. We presume, with strong reason, that it came from the city of Wuhan in Hubei Province, China, but whether from a live bat sold for human consumption at a wet market or the Wuhan Center for Disease Control has never been made clear. We are told coronavirus is highly contagious. Ten days ago, the Los Alamos National Laboratory published an article in which they claimed that the transmission rate for COVID-19 is between 4.7 and 6.6. For comparison purposes, the seasonal flu, the transmission rate is 1.3. (The transmission rate is also referred to as the regeneration rate, or the R0.) At the midpoint, 5.7, over ten rounds, one person could infect 36 million people. The chief epidemiologist at the Chinese Centers for Disease Control in Beijing puts the transmission rate at between 1.0 and 5.0. At the midpoint of 2.5, and after ten rounds, one individual could infect 9,538 people.  Which are we to believe?

Mortality rates are equally confusing. Is the rate calculated only for confirmed cases, or do deaths recorded include those with underlying conditions from which recovery was not probable?? Recently, some deaths attributed to COVID-19 include those who were suspected of having COVID-19, but on whom no tests were made. Is that fair? What about obesity, diabetes and lung disease. Should the asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic be included in the denominator? And what about perspective? In 2018, 7,779 people died every day in the United States. That would suggest that since the first two deaths in the U.S. from COVID-19 on February 26, more than 388,000 Americans have died from other causes. As of April 15, 30,844 Americans have died from COVID-19, (a number that includes 4,059 “probable” deaths in New York City). – a tragedy, but one that needs be kept in perspective. At the end of March, mortality rates from COVID-19 in the U.S. were estimated at 3.4 percent. Today, with millions more having been tested, that number is around 0.3 percent. Will that number continue to decrease as more tests are performed, or will a relaxation of lockdowns and social distancing, necessary for re-opening the economy, cause that number to rise?

Has the virus spread more widely than is known or acknowledged? Wuhan is China’s sixth largest city with a population of 11.1 million people. It has the largest student body population of any city in the world, which means that thousands of U.S. students were in Wuhan through the end of 2019, a month to six weeks after the virus was established. As well. In the 2017-2018 academic year, 360,000 Chinese students were enrolled in U.S. universities. Presumably, the numbers were similar for the 2019-2020 academic year. Most of those students would have returned to their U.S. college campuses following the Christmas holidays. Yet, the first person in the U.S. to be diagnosed with the novel coronavirus, 2-nCoV019, was a thirty-five-year old man, with “underlying health issues,” on January 19. He had returned to Washington State after visiting family in Wuhan. He claimed that when in Wuhan he had had no contact with anyone who was ill. After eight days in the hospital, he was asymptomatic and discharged. But are we to believe, with 3,000 to 4,000 people arriving in the U.S. every day from China through the end of January, that no one else had contacted this novel, contagious virus before then? Is it not possible that there are thousands, if not millions, in the U.S. who are asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic and have developed immunity?

And what about China, the source of this contagion? Hubei Province includes 58.5 million people. As a stand-alone country, it would rank as the 26^th largest in the world, just behind Italy and just ahead of Spain. For all of its economic success over the past two or three decades, China remains a Communist dictatorship. Two hundred million surveillance cameras keep watch over its 1.4 billion people. The Chinese Communist Party, at 90.5 million members, may be the second largest political party in the world, but the other 93% of the population lack basic rights and opportunities. Despite the enormous wealth of Chinese Communist leaders, China is a poor country. Household incomes in urban areas average about $6,000 a year. One point five million Muslim Uighurs are being held in 1,000 re-education camps in Xinjiang Province, in China’s northwest. This is the country that allowed the novel coronavirus to spread around the world for two months, with tens of thousands of people flying into and out of Hubei Province, before notifying the rest of world. Worse, the WHO (World Health Organization) was their willing partner. Should we believe them now, as they claim to want to help stop the spread of the virus they started?

Besides Chinese disinformation and the natural political exaggerations in an election year, part of the confusion lies in the fact that COVID-19 is a novel virus, which means it is a new strain never before seen in humans, so doctors and scientists had to learn on the go. Part of the problem is ours, for when we heard from those who make evidenced-based decisions we believed their predictions were accurate. Like sheep, we accepted the most extreme of the forecasted death rates, which resulted in an economic shutdown, the proportions of which have not been seen in at least eighty-seven years. We were led away, without debate, from the concept of a “herd” immunity, which might have ended the blight without risking the economy. In years to come, when historians review the virus and the reaction, will they say we acted wisely, or will the judgment be we reacted with a “herd” mentality, and that when attacked we assumed the hedge hog’s defense. It goes without saying that the aged and the health-vulnerable need protection, but like lemmings, have we run off the proverbial economic cliff? What is a person to believe?

Last evening at the President daily press conference with the coronavirus task force, Dr. Deborah Birx laid out guidelines for re-opening the country in three phases. These are guidelines – not directives – and the timing is left to the states. They will be using CDC’s influenza-like maps that they have for every county and city. The guidelines appear sensible, so one would expect that governors will likely adopt them. Before a state can enter phase one, it must show a downward trajectory for fourteen days of those infected. The guidelines include continuation of good hygiene, the wearing of masks when in public and staying home when sick. Employers must ensure that social distancing is maintained, counters and public areas disinfected regularly, employees’ temperatures are taken daily, and non-essential travel is prohibited. Phase two will allow non-essential travel to resume and some schools and camps to open. In phase three the vulnerable should be allowed back into public places. Throughout all phases, good hygiene and common sense should rule. How long each phase would last would be up to the individual governors. Nevertheless, this was a moment of sunshine at a bleak time, and I hope does not betray our belief.

"COVID-19 - More Thoughts"

Sydney M. Williams

www.swtotd.blogspot.com

Thought of the Day

“COVID-19 – More Thoughts”

March 29, 2020

“A person is a person through other persons;

you can’t be human in isolation; you are human only in relationships.”

                                                                                                Desmond Tutu (1931-)

                                                                                                South African Anglican Cleric

                                                                                                Winner Nobel Peace Prize, 1984

While COVID-19 has consumed the oxygen in the room, there are other, critical issues facing us as a nation and a people. Globally, China is jousting to become the hegemonic influence, in Asia, Africa, Europe and South America. Russia is determined to make Europe dependent on her for their energy. In Europe, as Muslim influence waxes, tolerance for Israel wanes. The Middle East remains an unstable cauldron of bitter enemies. Venezuela, once the most prosperous nation in Latin America, is a failed state. Domestically, infrastructure is crumbling. College costs have soared, causing the middle class to incur mountains of debt. Our nation’s debt load is an accident waiting to happen. Diversity of opinion is denied. Collective victimhood has replaced individual achievement. In the media and entertainment worlds, pessimism has defeated optimism. And, oh yes, there is an election on the horizon.

COVID-19 remains at the top of everyone’s list, not just because of the health scare it has created, but because of what it is doing to our economy – surging unemployment, collapsing businesses, bankruptcies and the isolation of the people, especially the elderly.

Sensationalism sells; it has been used by the press since time immemorial. Its offspring, panic, is used by unscrupulous politicians as an excuse to assume more power. The press is quick to lay blame but slow to accept accountability. Where were they on January 29 when the President formed the Coronavirus Task Force? Where were they on January 31 when he banned flights from China? We know where they were –clamoring for the President’s impeachment. Check the headlines for February 1. It wasn’t until February 5 that Congress first formed a committee to look into what is now a pandemic.

A couple of weeks ago, British Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson presented different models that displayed different scenarios of the spread of coronavirus. The most draconian of the models, based on an assumption the country would do nothing, predicted up to 500,000 coronavirus deaths in Britain and 2.2 million in the U.S. The press ran with the most severe of his predictions, and because they publicized only the most extreme outcome, they helped sow panic among the public, which justified a lock-down of the economy.

With the virus believed to be a faster moving organism than previously thought and with people self-isolating, social-distancing, wearing protective gloves and masks and practicing common sense hygiene, Dr. Ferguson now expects deaths in Britain, assuming current measures work as expected, to be “20,000 or less,” four percent of his worst-case scenario. Models, keep in mind, are only as good as the data inputted. “Models,” as Dr. Birx reminded us, “are models.” As well, the math can be subjective. When looking at deaths as a percent of inflicted, the numerator is not always accurate, and the denominator can vary. The numerator is affected by which deaths are counted as caused by coronavirus. In dying coronavirus patients, who also have other, terminal maladies, the cause of death is not always clear. In terms of the denominator, the number is generally based on known infections and does not include those who are asymptomatic, mildly symptomatic or who have had the disease and recovered. An increase in testing will help clarify the situation but excluding them inflates the death rate. On the other hand, if one includes in the denominator those who do not and never had the disease, the death rate may be understated.

In the meantime, the President must continue to address the pandemic. He reports to the people every weekday evening in his inimitable way. To which, much of the mainstream media responds in their inimical fashion, complaining he is doing too little or too much and that he ignores his medical experts, despite having both Dr. Deborah Birx and Dr. Anthony Fauci by his side most days. The President must balance the reality of the virus where it is most virulent and how long it is expected to last, with its effect on people, the economy and its challenge to our healthcare system. He must coordinate public-private partnerships and invoke the Defense Production Act when necessary, to ensure the flow of needed medical supplies. He must assess the damage a prolonged lock-down has on jobs and the economy. It is too simplistic to say he must first address the pandemic then focus on jobs. He must do both. Like any President in a crisis situation, he must be forthright about what is happening, but he must be optimistic. Confidence is critical is situations like this. We all know politics plays a role – a relatively quick recovery aids the incumbent; a deep or prolonged recession helps the opposition. And we know mainstream media despises the President who disrupted a complacent and supercilious Washington bureaucracy.

This past week the Federal Reserve added new facilities to aid hard-hit businesses, and the President signed the CARES Act (Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act). While the CARES Act included unnecessary pork, both were important in restoring some measure of confidence to equity markets. Thursday’s unemployment claims, which the previous week had been reported at 282,000, soared to 3.28 million, by far the highest on record. To lose over three million jobs, out of a workforce of 157 million, in one week is unprecedented. And that number will rise in the weeks ahead and markets are likely to remain jittery. The effect on the middle class, as well as the devastation for Blacks and Hispanics who had, until the last couple of weeks, enjoyed record employment numbers and wage increases, has been especially difficult. It is easy for pundits in comfortable offices and homes to dismiss the economic consequences as secondary to the health scare. It is not so easy for those laid off and without savings. The Administration will preserve as much of the economy as they can, but to heal the economy people will have to go back to work. The President’s optimism is critical to help restore the assurance we need to get us through this crisis.

The data suggests that the pandemic will worsen before it gets better. But scaremongers serve no purpose other than to alarm the people and make matters worse. Estimates suggest that death from COVID-19 occurs, on average, nineteen days after infestation. The Europe and UK travel bands were imposed on March 13 and 16 respectively. Stay-at-home edicts were broadly disseminated on March 20. If we can assume that stay-at-home mandates, social distancing and hygienic behavior have had a positive effect, then we might see a positive bend to the curve of instances and deaths around Passover, or at least in places that contacted the virus early; though no one knows what the future holds. The virus has attacked different parts of the country at different times and at different rates, so peaks in infections and deaths will vary, but it is possible that Easter may prove auspicious.

No one can dismiss the severity of COVID-19, but no one should underestimate the damage to the economy. As critical as it is to find a cure, it is equally important to begin to get people back to work. Both are critical. The United States needs to solve the COVID-19 crisis. But it cannot survive without millions of people working, generating the trillions of dollars needed to keep our country functioning. As well, as Bishop Tutu wrote, people cannot survive without human contact. We need one another.