"The Month That Was - April 2017"

Sydney M. Williams

swtotd.blogspot.com

The Month That Was – April 2017

May 1, 2017

“The first of April is the day we remember what we are the other 364 days.”

                                                                                                            Mark Twain (1835-1910)

A few days ago, in a reply that showed a rare understanding of political realities, my 12-year-old grandson responded to a question from his 16-year-old brother: “Do you even know what Communism IS, George?” “Sure, I do. It’s when one man works two hours and another guy works fourteen hours and they both get paid the same!” George gets it! I wish more adults did as well.

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Global news dominated: Kim Jong-un continued to play chicken with the civilized world; Russian bombers, off Alaska, came within 30 miles of U.S. airspace; the U.S. dropped the “mother of all bombs” on ISIS holdouts in Nangarhar province in Afghanistan; in retaliation for a chemical attack by Assad forces, the U.S. fired cruise missiles onto a Syrian airbase; food riots broke out in Venezuela, as Socialism broke down. These events demonstrate how delicate is civilization’s balance. Keeping Humpty-Dumpty on the wall is the most important job of world leaders, especially the American President.

The most significant events during the month were rising tensions between North Korea and the civilized world. Kim Jong-un has nuclear weapons. He is developing missile programs, which threaten South Korea, Japan, the United States and dozens of other nations. President Trump spent time during the month with Kim’s sole patron, China’s President Xi Jinping. He may have had some effect. By month’s end, it was indicated that China had reduced coal purchases from North Korea. Two failed launches may be ascribed to North Korea’s ineptness, or to cyber interference on the part of the U.S. We don’t know. American Naval ships have been repositioned to the East China Sea and the Sea of Japan. Mr. Trump, in a rare move, summoned all 100 Senators to the White House to discuss the situation. Missile defense should be front and center. A few South Koreans were reported to be upset with Mr. Trump’s declaration that it would be “appropriate” for them to pay for the missile defense system. But, after all, it is their hide that is in most immediate danger. (Last Saturday, Defense Secretary James Mattis said the U.S. would pay for the system.) Reality, as most South Koreans know, is that the U.S. is the only counter-balance to China.

Assad’s gas attack, which killed dozens of civilians in the rebel-held city of Khan Sheikhoun in northwest Syria, crossed a red line with Mr. Trump. Fifty-nine cruise missiles destroyed runways and planes on the ground at the airbase used for the chemical attack. With President Trump and U.S. Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley citing Russia as a co-conspirator, tensions are at Cold War levels.

Voters in France will have a choice between two Presidential candidates at a run-off election on May 8: Emmanuel Macron, a left-of-center Europhile and Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Front. World financial markets, and elites in Brussels and Washington, are treating Macron like the coming of a modern-day Jeanne d’Arc – a savior of Europe. They immediately anointed him a centrist. I am not so sure. While he talks of reducing corporate taxes and reforming labor laws, he would keep France in the EU, with its reliance on the U.S. for defense, bloated bureaucracies and ineffectual immigration policies. He is a former Socialist, member of Hollande’s cabinet, and supports BDS (Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions), regarding Israel in respect to Palestine. Polls indicate he should win. With a slim majority in Parliament and with Labor in disarray, Theresa May announced a “snap” election for June 8. Assuming she is successful in increasing Conservatives’ majority in Parliament (as polls suggest), she should be able to negotiate a more palatable exit from the European Union. Even so, talks between Mrs. May and EU President Jean Claude Juncker have become testy. In Turkey, a referendum, though narrowly won, will allow President Erdogan to increase his authoritarian rule.

Islamic terrorists were busy. A group killed fourteen and wounded fifty on a train in St. Petersburg. The Taliban killed 140 Afghan soldiers in the Dihdadi district of Balkh Province. Four people were killed, and fifteen wounded, when a Uzbekistan-born ISIS sympathizer drove a beer truck into a crowded street in Stockholm. A Californian man, Kori Ali Muhammad (nicknamed “Black Jesus”), killed three white men in downtown Fresno. When he was grabbed by police, he shouted “Allahu Akbar.” A German-Russian man bombed a bus in Germany carrying the Borussia Dortmund soccer team. Reports were mixed as to whether the cause was greed or terror. A Jihadist attack in Paris killed one policeman and wounded another. Islamic militants bombed Coptic Christian churches in Egypt, killing forty.

Elsewhere overseas, China launched its first domestically-built carrier – yet unnamed – from the port city of Dalian, which abuts the Yellow Sea in China’s northeast. After speaking with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto, President Trump agreed to renegotiate NAFTA rather than junk it. A young Indian girl, estimated to be between eight and ten, was rescued after being found living with monkeys. Mudslides in Colombia killed at least 300. Venezuela has devolved into anarchy, the consequence of Socialism unleashed. Inflation has risen 480%, while GDP has fallen 14%. People are starving and medical help is virtually non-existent. Where is the U.N.?

Neil Gorsuch was sworn in as the 113^th Justice of the Supreme Court. Partisanship, along with unrestrained hatred for everything-Trump, meant that the Senate had to extend Harry Reid’s “Nuclear Option” to Supreme Court Justices. All but two Democrats, in a childish pique, refused to vote for a man they had unanimously confirmed to the 10^th Court of Appeals in 2006. The President announced his tax plan, which the New York Times immediately characterized as a sop to the rich. The bill would eliminate the deductibility of state and local taxes (New York City residents bear the second highest tax burden in the nation). Did that fact influence their opinion? While all details are not available, the bill appears to be a boost for business and a major step toward simplification. Tax policies should always be considered dynamically, as taxes do affect economic activity. Voters in Georgia went to the polls to elect a Representative to replace Tom Price (now Health and Human Services Secretary) in the State’s 6^th District – a seat held by Republicans for 38 years. Democrats around the country saw this as a battleground to send a message to Mr. Trump. Despite spending $10 million (almost all of it from out of state and much of it from Hollywood), Jon Ossoff, a documentary film maker, failed to garner the necessary 50%, so will face Karen Handel in June. A deranged man in San Bernardino, California walked into his estranged wife’s high school classroom, and shot and killed her. He also killed one student and wounded another, before shooting himself. Peggy Noonan, one of my favorite columnists, won the Pulitzer for commentary.

April is a month replete with anniversaries, besides our wedding anniversary! Five hundred years ago, Martin Luther nailed to the door of the Castle Church in Wittenberg, Germany a paper containing his 95 Theses. While he may not have realized it, his actions began the Reformation and were, in part, responsible for the blood that flowed for a hundred years between Catholics and Protestants. A hundred and fifty-two years ago, on April 14, 1865 – just five days after Robert E. Lee surrendered at Appomattox – Abraham Lincoln was assassinated at Ford’s Theater in Washington, D.C. One hundred years ago, April 13, 1917, the United States entered World War I. Arthur Herman of National Review wrote that the decision “signaled the emergence of the of the US as the arbiter of a new world order.” Seventy-five years ago, on April 18, 1942 – just over four months after Pearl Harbor – American bombers struck back at Japan, when General Jimmy Doolittle led a group of B-25 bombers over Tokyo. Twenty-two years ago, 168 men, women and children were killed by domestic terrorist Timothy McVeigh in Oklahoma City.

Preliminary Q1 GDP came in at +0.7%, above expectations of +0.5%, but not enough to support the level of debt we are carrying and the entitlements we have promised. It was the lowest quarterly growth since the fourth quarter of 2015, and gives lie to the claim that Trump inherited a strengthening economy. However, for the month markets rallied. The DJIA was up 1.5% and the NASDAQ Composite climbed 2.3% – the latter topping 6000 for the first time. Uber, an innovative company (a “creative destroyer,” according to some), announced they would test flying cars within three years. When its manufacturing plant in Venezuela was seized, General Motors announced it was leaving the country. Since 1999, the ruling party of Nicolas Maduro and his predecessor Hugo Chavez have nationalized more than 1,400 companies, almost all of which have subsequently failed.

In other domestic news, universities continued their battle against free speech – providing students safe places from conservatives’ “hate” speech. Ann Coulter and the University of California at Berkley were the latest. Universities now claim to be unable to protect speakers from harm. In contrast, in what was termed “free artistic expression” (but in fact was just poor taste), the University of Alaska refused to remove a professor’s graphic portrait, depicting a decapitated Donald Trump. Why is it that the Left hates so violently? Tom Perez, the new head of the Democratic National Committee, habitually uses the word s**tty, when speaking of Trump’s policies. California Congresswoman Maxine Waters referred to Trump’s cabinet as a “bunch of scumbags.” And New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand routinely invokes the F-word in interviews, when speaking of Mr. Trump. The President is accused of vulgarity, but have we ever seen or heard anything like this from Trump, or from any Republican?

Juxtaposed to the treatment of conservatives, the Wall Street investment bank, Cantor Fitzgerald is paying former President Obama $400,000 to speak at a healthcare conference – one hour’s pay equal to his annual salary as President! The spacecraft Cassini, launched twenty years ago, is a joint effort between NASA, ESA (European Space Agency) and the Italian Space Agency. It flew between Saturn and its rings – a first. Among its discoveries – indications that an ocean that once existed on one of Saturn’s moons contains the chemical ingredients necessary for life. In images seen around the world, United Airline passenger Dr. David Dao was dragged down the aisle when he did not voluntarily give up his seat to a United employee. Arkansas became the fourth state to execute a prisoner this year. The other three states are Missouri, Texas and Virginia. At least two murders, including one by Steve Stevens of Cleveland, were filmed and then posted on Facebook! A book published this month – which I have no interest in reading, but is apparently “juicy” – is “Shattered: Inside Hillary Clinton’s Doomed Campaign.”

In women’s NCAA basketball, South Carolina beat Mississippi. After 111 wins and two national championships, UConn’s women’s basketball win-streak came to an end on April 1. In men’s NCAA basketball, North Carolina beat Gonzaga for the national title. Two Kenyans, Geoffrey Kirui and Edna Kiplagat, won the men’s and the women’s Boston Marathon.

Don Rickles, the lovable comedian who drew laughs from insulting his audience, died at 90. He did not discriminate – anyone was fair game. Robert Taylor died last month at age 85. In 1966, he went to work for what is now known as DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency), but then ARPA. In his office, he had three computer terminals, each linked to a different research team. But, since the teams were not linked, they could not collaborate. With persistence, three years later ARPAnet was created, the forerunner of today’s internet. Stick that in your pipe, Al Gore!

Almost before it began, April has become history. We welcome May, with its flowers wrought from April’s showers. Enjoy the month! And God, help preserve continued peace.

"The Month That Was - February 2017"

Sydney M. Williams

swtotd.blogspot.com

                                                                                                                                      March 1, 2017

The Month That Was – February 2017

“February is merely as long as is needed to pass the time until March.”

                                                                                                J.R. Stockton (1892-1972)

                                                                                                sports writer

The month ended with President Trump addressing a joint session of Congress. Eloquence may not be not his forte, but last night he was. He spoke for just over an hour and was interrupted with applause 96 times. It was, in my opinion, a home run of a speech. He was conciliatory toward Democrats, uplifted the American people and evoked empathy with guests he had brought, especially toward the widow of Ryan Owens, a U.S. Navy Seal killed last month in Yemen.

While global stock markets moved higher – the DJIA were up 4.7% for the month – clouds gathered on the horizon. This is a weather pattern we have seen before; however, man-made efforts caused them to temporarily dissipate, but not disappear. I write, of course, of the surge in government debt and obligations, which are growing faster than underlying economies – a situation that must, at some point, end. Adding to (and prolonging) the problem has been the effective socialization of debt, as central banks transferred private obligations to their public balance sheets. The Fed has stopped its QE programs, but the ECB continues. In 2008, such tactics were justified; but, to the extent they are used now to maintain social welfare benefits that would otherwise be unaffordable, they may delay, but will not prevent, future storms.

The problem is particularly acute in the EU, especially in those nations unflatteringly referred to as PIGS – Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain. While Spain’s prospects appear better than the others, all are experiencing financial hardship and all are facing the demographic challenge of fertility rates far below replacement rates. Declining birthrates is one reason why Europe has been open to Muslim immigration. Somebody has to produce babies and if the native population won’t they must be imported; for economic growth is difficult when populations shrink and productivity is absent.

These trends, which have produced substandard economic growth, were instinctively understood by those in the UK who voted for Brexit and Trump voters in the U.S. They have been misread by elites throughout the West who seem as removed from reality as were those Russian aristocrats who sipped lemonade, as the guns of 2017 harkened the coming Revolution. Keep in mind, Brexit and Trump are symptoms, not causes. The causes were a consequence of hearts bigger than heads, of sensibilities that exorcised sense.

Abnormally, the month saw both ‘risk-on’ and ‘risk-off’ asset prices rise. Stocks rose, as mentioned above, but so did Treasuries, as the yield on the Ten-year declined by 10 basis points. The latter, however, is still 54 basis points above where it was on November 8.

Mr. Trump issued an executive order that would have temporarily banned (three months) immigration from seven countries known to harbor terrorists, countries that happen to be predominantly Muslim. The order was hastily worded – Attorney General Jeff Sessions had not been confirmed – and poorly implemented. A judge in the State of Washington placed a temporary restraining order (later upheld by the 9^th Circuit Court of Appeals) on the President’s order. A revised order is expected today.

In other domestic news, the President nominated Neil Gorsuch to fill the Supreme Court seat vacated when Antonin Scalia died a year ago. Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin released his budget proposal. It includes a 5% cut in in-state tuition, the first decrease in the history of the public university system. In 2013, Governor Walker froze tuitions for in-state students, a consequence of his successful 2011 budget reforms, reforms widely denounced by Democrats at the time. Incidentally, the ten-years prior saw tuitions at the University of Wisconsin rise by 118%. Indicative of structural problems the nation faces, damage to the emergency spillway at California’s Oroville Dam meant 188,000 people had to be evacuated. Most were allowed to return to their homes within two days, but officials admit that if the dam does break there wouldn’t be time to evacuate residents.

Only 15 of the 22 Cabinet and advisor positions have been confirmed by the Senate, making this the slowest formation of a government in the post-War period. National Security Adviser General Michael Flynn resigned amid allegations he had lied to the Vice President as to whether sanctions were discussed with his Russian counterpart back in January. He was replaced with General H.R. McMaster. Three Cabinet nominees had their names removed from consideration: Andrew Puzder, as Labor Secretary, along with Vincent Viola and Philip Bilden, respective nominees for the Army and Navy. Yet to be confirmed are nominees for Interior, Energy, Agriculture, Labor and Housing, along with the U.S. Trade Representative and Director of National Intelligence. If the purpose of Democrats is to hobble the new Administration by using delaying tactics (not enough time to properly vet the nominees is their claim!), they are off to an admirable start. A spokesman for one of the intelligence services even admitted to withholding secret information from the President. To pretend this is politics as usual is to misread what is happening. Listening to CBS news one morning last week, the 7:00AM news began: Millions to be deported. Families to be torn apart. Political discourse, in the age of Trump, has become the worst since Hitler and the 1930s. Granted, birther extremists on the right in 2009 attempted to deny Mr. Obama his rightfully elected position, but the meanness that permeates our culture today is nastier and more ubiquitous than anything I have seen.

Overseas, Europe is preparing for upcoming elections – national ones in France, the Netherlands and Germany, and local ones in the UK. Populist candidates, Marine Le Pen of the National Front in France and Geert Wilders of the Party for Freedom in the Netherlands are both in the running; though Mr. Wilders suspended public appearances because of threats on his life. Angela Merkel is running for a fourth term in Germany, but is saddled with last year’s disastrous immigration program. Other elections scheduled for this year include ones in Albania, Armenia, the Czech Republic, Lichtenstein, Norway, Serbia and Slovenia. British PM Theresa May spent most of the month navigating the shoals permitting Article 50 to be triggered next month, the mechanism which allows the UK to formally begin the process of exiting the EU.

Mr. Putin had a busy month. A Russian spy ship was spotted in waters off the U.S. submarine base in Groton, Connecticut. It then traversed the East Coast, but remained in international waters. Russian planes buzzed a U.S. warship in the Black Sea. Montenegro accused Russian security forces of plotting to kill their Prime Minister, Milo Dukanovic, and overthrow the government. After two years of relative quiet, the eastern Ukraine city of Avdiivka came under bombardment, as Russian aggression intensified.

A machete-wielding Islamist from Egypt, calling out “Allahu Akbar,” was shot by French police outside the Louvre. With Athens facing a big interest payment, the Greek debt crisis returned to the front pages. Donald Trump allegedly hung up on Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull when the latter insisted Mr. Trump honor a promise Mr. Obama made just before leaving office. He apparently agreed to accept 1600 refugees that Australia refuses to take in, so are keeping in camps on the islands of Nauru and Papua New Guinea. After a phone call with President Xi Jinping, President Trump reverted to the “One China” policy, a cornerstone of U.S.-China relations since 1979. North Korea fired a medium long-range ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. China then imposed sanctions on imported North Korean coal. Kim Jong-un’s half-brother, Kim Jong-nam, was assassinated at a Malaysian airport, most likely on orders from Pyongyang. Iraqi forces, with help from U.S. advisors, are close to liberating Mosul from ISIS. Rioters in a migrant-dominated neighborhood of Stockholm were fired upon by police.

On the 13^th of the month the University of Connecticut women’s basketball team chalked up their 100^th consecutive win. By month’s end they had stretched that to 104 games. They are, however, far behind the longest winning stretch in sports. That honor belongs to Pakistan’s Jahangir Khan’s 555 consecutive wins in squash from 1981 to 1986. Nevertheless, they are to be congratulated! USA Football (youth football) said it would be testing a new, and safer, version of the game – fewer players, a smaller field, no special teams, elimination of the three-point stance and rotation of players into different positions.

The groundhog did see his shadow, at least he did in Punxsutawney, predicting six more weeks of winter. An avalanche in France killed four at a ski resort in Tignes. A local official in Sweden came up with a novel proposal for addressing two nagging problems: how to improve ‘work-life’ balance and how to address a decline in birthrates. Under his plan municipal workers will be granted an hour-long paid break each week, to go home and have sex! No wonder Vladimir Putin doesn’t seem concerned about Europe. Seven planets, orbiting a single sun, were discovered, three of which may have life. However, they are 40 light years away ( a little less than 240 trillion miles). I am unlikely to visit. Yale University decided to rename Calhoun College, because of John C. Calhoun’s connection with slavery, and his reference to it as “a positive good.” Of course many wealthy men at the time, like Elihu Yale, were slave traders or slave owners. In fact, the Yale Daily News notes that ten of Yale’s twelve residential colleges were named for men that owned slaves. Slavery is a curse on our history that may be hidden but cannot be expunged. Jacob Bernstein, son of Carl Bernstein (of Watergate fame) and a reporter for the New York Times, called First Lady Melania Trump a “hooker.” He was later reprimanded. After one more album and at age 74, Aretha Franklin announced plans to retire. “Moon Light” won best picture, in a crazy mix-up at the Oscars.

Omar Abdel Rahman, better known as the ‘Blind Sheikh,’ died in federal prison. A known terrorist, he slipped by U.S. immigration forces in 1990 when he moved to New York. A year later, he declared jihad against the United States. He was responsible for the 1993 bombing of the World Trade Center, an act that got him convicted to life imprisonment. He served as inspiration to those who, eight years later, took 3000 lives. Mr. Rahman was 78. Michael Novak, a Roman Catholic social philosopher who later in life made the moral case for capitalism, died at age 83. At age 94, General Harold Moore died. With war correspondent Joseph Galloway, he was author of “We Were Soldiers Once…and Young,” a great book made into an okay movie starring Mel Gibson. The story recounts America’s first major battle in Vietnam (a costly victory) in the I Drang Valley in November 1965.

Given the elevated level of political dissonance, I look outside, expecting to see ‘Apocalypse Now.’ Instead I see a typically cool, cloud-filled February day. As I write, markets are drifting lower, which is no surprise. On Monday, the DJIA closed higher for the 12^th day in a row, something that has only happened on two other occasions in the history of the Dow Jones Industrial Averages, the last time in 1987. Business confidence is at the highest level since November 2014. February’s consumer confidence was reported at 114.8, the highest level since July 2001. Yet Washington is polarized and in disarray. Were we able to view this scene from 50,000 feet, we might find it amusing – vulnerable Washington souls clinging to one another as they battle a monster that has invaded their sanctuary. But the Country moves steadily on.

And we move on to March, which will bring with it spring and hopes for renewal.