“The Primaries – What if there is no Winner?”
Sydney M. Williams
The real news was not so much the Lazarus-like rise of Rick Santorum on Tuesday with his three-state victory, as it was a vivid manifestation of Romney’s greatest weakness – an inability to connect with ordinary people, a lack of charisma or approachability, call it what you will.
Ron Paul is proof that a politician can spend three and a half decades in Washington and not be tainted by the odor that emanates from the collusion between Capitol Hill and K Street. But his very directness is odd, and suggests he will not be the nominee. If we put him aside, admittedly unfairly, as he appeals to people because of his honesty, directness and libertarian views, we are left with three “B” team players – Gingrich, Santorum and Romney.
Newt Gingrich is generally conceded to be a highly intelligent, politically savvy man, but one who comes across as having a nasty streak. It is telling that very few of those who served with him in Congress have chosen to endorse his candidacy. Mr. Gingrich, naturally, has used that silence to argue he is the anti-establishment candidate.
Mr. Santorum’s working class background helps him identify with middle class families, but the stunning margin (17.4%) in the loss of his Senate seat in 2006 raises questions as to his electability. While he appeals to social conservatives, he comes across to more traditional Republicans as an Old Testament Prophet, emphasizing why those who disagree with his God are destined for eternal damnation, rather than speaking optimistically of the opportunities afforded by a pluralistic society, in a country where individual initiative and less intrusive government allows aspirational men and women to succeed or fail based on merit.
And then there is Mitt. He looks Presidential – the right height, hair graying at the temples, slender. He is obviously bright – a BA from Stanford, and two graduate degrees from Harvard, business and law. Though he is the scion to a wealthy and politically connected family, he has been successful on his own, as a founder and head of Bain Capital. He is obviously endowed with the gene common to frugal, hard working people. There is little question that he is more than technically capable to be President and would, in my opinion, be superior to what we have. But he is missing what is known as “the common touch,” the ability to be comfortable while out on the campaign trail. It is still my guess that he becomes the Republican nominee, but perhaps not.
The race to become President is typically one of a very long distance – far longer than a marathon. It begins shortly after the previous November election night. It costs hundreds of millions of dollars. In fact, President Obama has suggested his re-election campaign may require a billion dollars. Mitt Romney, in fact, has been campaigning since before the 2008 election.
From my perspective, Presidential campaigns are far too long, much too expensive and attract second rate talent. Attempts to limit spending do no good. It is not unlike our overly complex tax system; well paid clever people figure ways to circumvent the rules. Public financing of political campaigns would be a violation of free speech. The only answer is something George Bush proposed in 2000: require the full and timely disclosure of all contributions. Failure to comply should result in fines and/or jail time. Sunshine is the best disinfectant.
Nevertheless, it is the system we have today; so what happens if 2286 Republican delegates arrive in Tampa on August 27th with no candidate having the 1144 delegates necessary to win?
For one thing, such an event just might work in Republican’s favor. While I characterize those now competing to be the “B” team, there are plenty of Republicans that easily qualify for the “A” team – Mitch Daniels of Indiana is at the head of the pack, in my opinion. Paul Ryan from Wisconsin has done more to address the inequities embedded in our entitlement programs than anyone from either party. Bobby Jindal, the first Indian-American governor in the U.S., and a Rhodes Scholar, has used the devastation caused by Hurricane Katrina (2005) to re-build the New Orleans school system, transforming what was one of the country’s worst systems into one of the nation’s best. In every election he has entered, he has won by an ever-widening margin.
New Jersey’s Governor Chris Christy assumed responsibility for a budget that was mired in debt and a bureaucracy ladened with corruption. He has put the state on a path toward a sound financial footing. Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin incurred the wrath of union bosses and corrupt politicians when he exposed the symbiotic relationships that kept both in office for decades – money for votes, ignoring the burden with which they were oppressing the next generation. He is facing a recall election that should take place prior to the convention. Mark Rubio, newly elected Senator from Florida is another rising Republican star. There are others. The point being that the Republican Party is not bereft of talent.
The last time the outcome of the nominating process was decided at a convention was 1976, when incumbent President Gerald Ford was nearly toppled by former California Governor Ronald Reagan. The majority of the delegates who will show up in Tampa will be pledged to a specific candidate, at least on the first ballot. (It is a pledge, not a legal requirement.) If none of the candidates has the delegates necessary to win, the process will require additional ballots, and at open conventions anything can happen, including the possibility that someone from the “A” team could be nominated.
National conventions came into being in 1832. Earlier, members of Congress selected their respective party’s standard bearer. The first binding primary was New Hampshire’s in 1952. That year General Eisenhower, who not once campaigned in the state, defeated long time U.S. Senator and favorite of the Republican establishment, Robert Taft. At the Convention in July, Eisenhower, after some bartering, won on the first ballot, and went on to a landslide victory in November.
Republicans need someone about whom they can get excited. The individual would have to be willing to suffer from the slings and arrows of a Democrat machine that will expose and demonize every detail of their personal lives. Voters are becoming used to such trash, where there are no holds barred and everything is fair game. Unlike President Obama, who for some reason has been shielded from such scrutiny – college buddies, grades, girlfriends, etc – Republicans should expect no such deference on the part of the press, or the opposition.
If the Republican nomination does get decided at the Convention, it won’t necessarily be a bad thing; if an “A” team member is chosen as nominee, and is willing to withstand the scrutiny and onslaught, it would be the Republic that would benefit.
Thought of the Day
“The Primaries – What if there is no Winner?”
February 10, 2012The real news was not so much the Lazarus-like rise of Rick Santorum on Tuesday with his three-state victory, as it was a vivid manifestation of Romney’s greatest weakness – an inability to connect with ordinary people, a lack of charisma or approachability, call it what you will.
Ron Paul is proof that a politician can spend three and a half decades in Washington and not be tainted by the odor that emanates from the collusion between Capitol Hill and K Street. But his very directness is odd, and suggests he will not be the nominee. If we put him aside, admittedly unfairly, as he appeals to people because of his honesty, directness and libertarian views, we are left with three “B” team players – Gingrich, Santorum and Romney.
Newt Gingrich is generally conceded to be a highly intelligent, politically savvy man, but one who comes across as having a nasty streak. It is telling that very few of those who served with him in Congress have chosen to endorse his candidacy. Mr. Gingrich, naturally, has used that silence to argue he is the anti-establishment candidate.
Mr. Santorum’s working class background helps him identify with middle class families, but the stunning margin (17.4%) in the loss of his Senate seat in 2006 raises questions as to his electability. While he appeals to social conservatives, he comes across to more traditional Republicans as an Old Testament Prophet, emphasizing why those who disagree with his God are destined for eternal damnation, rather than speaking optimistically of the opportunities afforded by a pluralistic society, in a country where individual initiative and less intrusive government allows aspirational men and women to succeed or fail based on merit.
And then there is Mitt. He looks Presidential – the right height, hair graying at the temples, slender. He is obviously bright – a BA from Stanford, and two graduate degrees from Harvard, business and law. Though he is the scion to a wealthy and politically connected family, he has been successful on his own, as a founder and head of Bain Capital. He is obviously endowed with the gene common to frugal, hard working people. There is little question that he is more than technically capable to be President and would, in my opinion, be superior to what we have. But he is missing what is known as “the common touch,” the ability to be comfortable while out on the campaign trail. It is still my guess that he becomes the Republican nominee, but perhaps not.
The race to become President is typically one of a very long distance – far longer than a marathon. It begins shortly after the previous November election night. It costs hundreds of millions of dollars. In fact, President Obama has suggested his re-election campaign may require a billion dollars. Mitt Romney, in fact, has been campaigning since before the 2008 election.
From my perspective, Presidential campaigns are far too long, much too expensive and attract second rate talent. Attempts to limit spending do no good. It is not unlike our overly complex tax system; well paid clever people figure ways to circumvent the rules. Public financing of political campaigns would be a violation of free speech. The only answer is something George Bush proposed in 2000: require the full and timely disclosure of all contributions. Failure to comply should result in fines and/or jail time. Sunshine is the best disinfectant.
Nevertheless, it is the system we have today; so what happens if 2286 Republican delegates arrive in Tampa on August 27th with no candidate having the 1144 delegates necessary to win?
For one thing, such an event just might work in Republican’s favor. While I characterize those now competing to be the “B” team, there are plenty of Republicans that easily qualify for the “A” team – Mitch Daniels of Indiana is at the head of the pack, in my opinion. Paul Ryan from Wisconsin has done more to address the inequities embedded in our entitlement programs than anyone from either party. Bobby Jindal, the first Indian-American governor in the U.S., and a Rhodes Scholar, has used the devastation caused by Hurricane Katrina (2005) to re-build the New Orleans school system, transforming what was one of the country’s worst systems into one of the nation’s best. In every election he has entered, he has won by an ever-widening margin.
New Jersey’s Governor Chris Christy assumed responsibility for a budget that was mired in debt and a bureaucracy ladened with corruption. He has put the state on a path toward a sound financial footing. Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin incurred the wrath of union bosses and corrupt politicians when he exposed the symbiotic relationships that kept both in office for decades – money for votes, ignoring the burden with which they were oppressing the next generation. He is facing a recall election that should take place prior to the convention. Mark Rubio, newly elected Senator from Florida is another rising Republican star. There are others. The point being that the Republican Party is not bereft of talent.
The last time the outcome of the nominating process was decided at a convention was 1976, when incumbent President Gerald Ford was nearly toppled by former California Governor Ronald Reagan. The majority of the delegates who will show up in Tampa will be pledged to a specific candidate, at least on the first ballot. (It is a pledge, not a legal requirement.) If none of the candidates has the delegates necessary to win, the process will require additional ballots, and at open conventions anything can happen, including the possibility that someone from the “A” team could be nominated.
National conventions came into being in 1832. Earlier, members of Congress selected their respective party’s standard bearer. The first binding primary was New Hampshire’s in 1952. That year General Eisenhower, who not once campaigned in the state, defeated long time U.S. Senator and favorite of the Republican establishment, Robert Taft. At the Convention in July, Eisenhower, after some bartering, won on the first ballot, and went on to a landslide victory in November.
Republicans need someone about whom they can get excited. The individual would have to be willing to suffer from the slings and arrows of a Democrat machine that will expose and demonize every detail of their personal lives. Voters are becoming used to such trash, where there are no holds barred and everything is fair game. Unlike President Obama, who for some reason has been shielded from such scrutiny – college buddies, grades, girlfriends, etc – Republicans should expect no such deference on the part of the press, or the opposition.
If the Republican nomination does get decided at the Convention, it won’t necessarily be a bad thing; if an “A” team member is chosen as nominee, and is willing to withstand the scrutiny and onslaught, it would be the Republic that would benefit.
Labels: TOTD
posted by Thought of the Day @ 9:50 AM
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