"Tariffs and Other Thoughts"

 

 

Sydney M. Williams

www.swtotd.blogspot.com

 

Thought of the Day

“Tariffs and Other Thoughts”

April 9, 2025

 

“So set aside the folk memory of the Great Depression, and try to look

at tariffs in a non-hysterical way, as a policy with rational political aims.”

                                                                                                                                David Frost (1965-)

                                                                                                                                Former British diplomat & politician

                                                                                                                                The Spectator, 3 April, 2025

 

President Trump bears responsibility for the rout in the world’s equity markets. His tariffs, if used to raise revenues, as he claims, will cause a global recession, or worse. If they are used to negotiate lower tariffs on U.S. exports, which he also claims, they will strengthen the economy and may lead to global free trade. He is right, however, in his complaint that there is much in our politics and culture that has gone wrong over the past several years. We are a country, like much of the West, with a spending problem. Federal debt, as a percent of GDP, is higher than it was in 1945 (121% in 2024 versus 112% in 1945). Both political parties are at fault for excessive spending. As well, there has been a rise in anti-Semitism, fueled, in my opinion, by dislike for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and often masked as anti-Zionism. And, of course, our border was open throughout President Biden’s term in office.

 

In this age of technology, we must focus on ensuring access to needed raw materials. Over the past several years, we have let defense spending lapse, while permitting China unchallenged access to commodities and markets across Africa and South America. We have allowed unfettered (and illegal) migration into our country, and not just for those seeking political refuge from despotic governments, but for criminals and gang members, some of whom brought in fentanyl, a drug that has killed an estimated quarter of a million Americans since 2018. We have seen the Democratic Party take a sharp turn to the left, as it became increasingly patronizing in tone – do as I say, not as I do. The Party has focused on equity, not equal opportunity. In the name of diversity, it has encouraged racial division and allowed identity policies, rather than ability and diligence, to become the standard for admissions into colleges and businesses; it has let universities become beacons of “social justice,” rather than pinnacles of learning where students debate controversial subjects in a respectful and tolerant manner; it has encouraged sports venues to allow males to compete against females. Just last year, the Party knowingly nominated a man for President who was mentally unfit, and now we have a Supreme Court Justice who is unable to define a woman. In all of this, mainstream media has been complicit. 

 

None of us want to return to the past. Each generation builds on the previous. Much of manufacturing, in the 21^st Century, will be done by robots, so bringing industries back to the U.S. will not necessarily bring back jobs. Three hundred years ago, and thousands of years before that, the principal source of wealth was land, and the crops grown and the minerals mined. Wealth gaps were enormous and slaves and serfs who worked the land had little or no freedom. The Industrial Revolution, which began almost two hundred years ago, gave rise to a new group of capitalists – those who were innovative, creative, aspirant and diligent. Income and wealth gaps were still enormous; but new products, from railroads to plumbing, improved lives. And that period saw trade expand beyond borders. Industries, to stay competitive moved production facilities. After World War II, in my home state of New Hampshire, textile mills relocated to southern States, to take advantage of cheaper labor and other economic incentives. While those moves hurt New Hampshire’s economy, lower prices of finished goods benefitted consumers across the nation. 

 

More recently, finance and technology have provided sources of wealth. Life is never fair, and there will always be those who have more than others. But definitions of poverty have been defined upwards. Capitalism has improved lives. Keep in mind, the role of government is not to redistribute wealth or equalize outcomes, but to set rules and regulations, enact and ensure adherence to laws, provide a system of equal justice, and offer access to ladders that lead to opportunities for success, recognizing that the rungs on a ladder go down as well as up. And education represents the first and most important step on that ladder. So, education should be a principal concern of government. Yet, because of the power of teachers’ unions – major supporters of the Democrat Party – education has been neglected, as test scores show.  

 

Mr. Trump’s flaws are legion; they include an over-sized ego (a characteristic common to all politicians) and his preference to surround himself with sycophants (another characteristic common to most politicians). And just as his enemies are blinded with hatred, his acolytes are blinded by devotion. Nevertheless, tariffs, as proposed, are not the answer the Administration claims. In fact, left standing, they will cause more damage to markets and the economy. So, the question is: Will they remain as they are? I don’t know.

 

I want to end, however, on a positive note. The people of the United States recognize the extraordinary luck they have to live in this country. This is the only country in the world founded on the principle that men and women are born free, with certain inalienable rights, among which are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. And, yes, I recognize our history has not always been just, that injustice is part of our past. But I also recognize the great strides we have made over the years and the acknowledgment of those injustices by leaders in politics, education and business. Overseas, the United States must continue to practice and project the moral standards that have defined our nation for the past 250 years. 

 

Volatility in the stock market is a concern, but it is worth repeating Benjamin Graham’s quote: …that the market, in the short term, can be seen as a “voting machine,” influenced by investor sentiment and emotions, but in the long run it acts as a “weighing machine,” reflecting the value of companies based on their fundamentals. Current volatility, while putting at risk traders with short time horizons, offers opportunity to long term investors seeking value.

 

As for our nation, Martin Luther King, Jr. reminded us: “The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice.” It is true that Founders like George Washington, Thomas Jefferson and James Madison owned slaves, but it is also true that they provided the framework, in the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution, that permitted America’s moral universe to bend toward a fairer and more inclusive society. And that arc is still bending. History is a continuum. 

 

So, stay positive and stay focused. There is good and bad in all people. We have not yet seen the final act in this play about tariffs. Applause or catcalls should wait.

"End of Identity Politics?"

 Here we are in early December, almost a quarter of the way through the 21^st Century. Growing up in the mid-part of the 20^th Century, I thought I was living in the future. The 19^th Century – the past – was ever-present in grandparents, great aunts and uncles, and older neighbors. The “future,” foretold in books like The Time Machine, Brave New World, 1984 and Fahrenheit 451 and movies like The War of the Worlds and 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea, provided fanciful entertainment, but hardly accurate predictions.

 

But the world does move on, and change is one constant we can count on.  Politically things change. The Party of Lincoln lost the black vote. The Party of segregation became the party of civil rights. Today we are going through another political change, as the Party of the working class is becoming the Party of elites, and of those dependent on government, and the mindless woke. And the Party of Lincoln, the Party of opportunity, is beginning once again to make inroads among the nation’s minorities.

 

Sydney M. Williams

www.swtotd.blogspot.com

 

Thought of the Day

“End of Identity Politics?”

December 2, 2024

 

“If I would not vote against someone on the grounds of ‘race’ or ‘gender’ alone, then by the exact

same token I would not cast a vote in his or her favor for the identical reason. You see how

this obvious question makes fairly intelligent people say the most alarmingly stupid things.”

                                                                                                  Christopher Hitchens (1949-2011)

                                                                                                  Letters to a Young Contrarian, 2001

 

Mr. Trump’s victory on November 5^th may have marked the end of identity politics as we know it. Economic class, the election showed, mattered more than ethnicity, race or gender. Identity politics is based on the natural tendency for people of a specific race, ethnicity, gender, cultural, or religious group to band together, in friendship and to rectify past injustices. But that tendency has been employed and advantaged by politicians who, with the assistance of allies in the media, have divided people into oppressors and oppressed. Identity politics has led to an absence of focus on issues more relevant to individuals. 

 

The election showed that the American public is receptive to merit being the determinant to earned rather than “deserved” reward. DEI and ESG have fallen from favor. With the election, they fell further, defeated by common sense and real-world issues like the border, inflation, crime, disarray overseas, and excessive government intrusion and spending. Victor Davis Hanson, a classicist historian, wrote in the November 21 issue of American Greatness of culture wars: “The age of flashing pronouns, renaming iconic landmarks, statue toppling, trashing the dead, vandalizing with impunity the campus library, or spouting anti-Semitic venom is passing.”

 

But the going is sluggish. While a CBS News/YouGov poll found 59% of American adults approve of how the Trump team is preparing its return to the White House, the Progressive Left is in denial about the election, as they continue to genuflect at the altar of Wokeness. Many believe that America remains racist, a society divided between victims and victimizers – that its history must be expunged and re-written; and that, for the nation’s redemption, taxpayers should continue to fund government departments of diversity, equity and inclusion. And they feel convinced that Mr. Trump symbolizes all that is wrong with the nation. But who is out of touch with America’s electorate? Mike Gonzalez and Armen Tooloee wrote in last Tuesday’s Wall Street Journal: “Donald Trump’s most effective campaign ad featured the tagline, ‘Kamala is for they/them. President Trump is for you.’”

 

In any event, is it accurate to call Mr. Trump a racist, sexist, bigot? Piers Morgan, in the November 23 issue of The Spectator, noted that he received “so many new votes from black, Latino, female, Jewish and Muslim voters, and celebrates by dancing on stage to the Village People’s gay anthem ‘YMCA’.” Empirical evidence suggests the answer to the question is no.

 

Democrats have created a bell-bar approach toward their Party – the elite (the media, the entertainment world, college professors and administrators, coastal tech and Wall Street billionaires) on one side, and those financially dependent on government on the other. It is a policy that ignores working class people, including legal immigrants, those who had once been the backbone of their Party. It is policy that downplays the role of aspiration, dedication, and effort – traits that lead to economic success. Having lived in Connecticut for almost sixty years, I have witnessed this change – wealthy enclaves and country clubs that were once dominated by Republicans have become bastions of Democratic group-think.

 

Politicians have long campaigned by compartmentalizing the electorate. The Marxist Left Review, a semi-annual publication, in August 2021, defined the term: “Identity politics is a set of ideas and practices that aim to build recognition of and expand representation for particular identity groups” to elevate them “to moral and political pre-eminence.” The second half of the 20^thCentury saw the emergence of such large-scale political movements: women’s rights, Black Civil Rights, gay and lesbian liberation, native American movement. They were all, as the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy puts it, based on claims about injustice having been done to them. And their claims were, largely, valid. 

 

But while these issues were imperative sixty years ago, the world has moved on. Those legitimate arguments have morphed into demands that male athletes be allowed to compete in women’s sports, that tampon dispensers be placed in men’s rooms, that school children should be allowed to take hormone-altering drugs without parent permission, and universities where students are fearful of expressing conservative opinions because of retaliation from professors and other students.

 

Despite what we read, see and hear in and on mainstream media and despite claims by Progressives of disinformation from conservative social media outlets, misogyny, racism, xenophobia, and homophobia have been in retreat. Are there still bigots? Of course. There always will be, but they are less ubiquitous than before. Given that the percentage of votes cast for Mr. Trump among blacks, Hispanics and youth increased suggests that the United States is approaching the goal which Martin Luther King sought – that the color of one’s skin is less important than the content of one’s character. The election was an affirmation that merit, aspiration, effort and ability are critical to success, and that affirmative action is yesterday’s answer to yesterday’s problem. The election’s outcome found that economic class was more critical to voters than race, gender or ethnicity. The U.S. is becoming more of a melting pot.

 

People should be judged by ability, effort and their accomplishments. We are each an individual. Today’s identity politics has led to racial and gender discrimination. It was the excuse Nazis used to persecute Jews in the 1930s and ‘40s, and it is what Chinese Communists do today to tyrannize Uyghurs. Its ugliness is seen in anti-Semitism on college campuses. And it is what led the ICC (International Criminal Court) to issue arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant. 

 

I hope my optimism about witnessing the dying embers of identity politics is not pollyannish – that its setback is not just temporary. On February 18, 1958 Senator John F. Kennedy spoke at Loyola College Annual Alumni dinner in Baltimore: “Let us not seek the Republican answer or the Democratic answer, but the right answer. Let us not seek to fix the blame for the past. Let us accept our responsibility for the future.”

 

Read and re-read Christopher Hitchens’ wise remarks that preface this essay. Once anger over the election’s outcome has subsided and common sense returned, cooler heads should prevail. In an interview with Jason Riley in last Wednesday’s The Wall Street Journal, Shelby Steele said, the election was “…a vote for individualism over group identity.” And that it was “… a real note of progress for black America politically.” Aspiration, ability, effort are not characteristics exclusive to one’s gender, race, or ethnicity. But they have not been meted out equally, which explains differences in outcomes. Each of us is unique. Government should support the concept of equal opportunity, and individuals should be encouraged to take advantage of their God-given talents. Merit, regardless of who the individual is, should be the deciding factor in college admission and job offers. If we do, we will put “paid” to the belief in identity politics, at least as we know it; and then we can concentrate on today, the future and new problems that confront us.

"Something is Rotten in the State of Denmark"

 

Sydney M. Williams

www.swtotd.blogspot.com

 

Thought of the Day

“Something is Rotten in the State of Denmark^[1]”

September 5, 2024

 

“American politics is undergoing a profound change in its core pattern.”

                                                                                                                                Newt Gingrich (1943-)

                                                                                                                                New York Sun

                                                                                                                                August 29, 2024

 

When Marcellus utters Shakespeare’s immortal line, he speaks of the corruption that led to Hamlet’s father, King Hamlet, being murdered. When Mr. Gingrich wrote the words in the rubric, it reflected his opinion that corruption, incompetence and dishonesty have come to characterize American politics. One does not have to be in accord with all that Mr. Gingrich believes to agree that politics in the United States has become polarized and that people, in general, have become disenchanted with those who labor in the vineyards along the Potomac.  

 

Complaints about politics and political leaders are as old as civilization, but they have reached new heights in the U.S., and, in fact, in much of the West. A PEW Research study, conducted a year ago, concluded: “Just 4% of U.S. adults say the political system is working extremely or very well; another 23% say it is working somewhat well.” Things have worsened since. On August 21 of this year Statista Research put the approval rating for the U.S. Congress at 16 percent. Keep in mind, this is despite the 118^th Congress “being the most diverse Congress in American history.” Their report concluded that “nearly 60% of Americans have no confidence the parties can govern in a bipartisan way.”

 

When asked how they feel when they think of politics in the PEW study, 65% said they were “always/often exhausted”. Asked as to what words best described the current state of American politics, “divisive” and “corrupt” were the top choices. Members of Congress, especially those on the left, are famous for extolling wealth and income disparities. Yet, the median net worth of an individual member of Congress is more than five times the median net worth of American households. Wikipedia, in a list of presidents ranked by net worth, adjusted for inflation to 2022 U.S. dollars, shows that three of the last five U.S. Presidents head the list: Donald Trump, Barack Obama and Bill Clinton. (George W. Bush is twelfth and Joe Biden is tied with Eisenhower for twenty-second.) Last on the list is Harry Truman, who famously replied when offered a corporate board seat: “You don’t want me; you want the U.S. Presidency, and it’s not for sale.” Today, everything in politics is for sale, including access.

 

“Antiestablishment populism is on the rise in Europe, fueled not just by migration and economic and security fears, but also by a deeper trend: eroding confidence in governments’ ability to overcome these challenges;” so began an article in last Tuesdays The Wall Street Journal by Bertrand Benoit. This lack of confidence in government can be seen in recent elections in Italy, the UK, Germany, the Netherlands, and France. As for problems of inflation, migration and the war in Ukraine, there is, as Mr. Benoit wrote, “confidence is crumbling that elected governments can solve them.”

 

In the U.S., our history has become a cesspool of political correctness. Schools and colleges depict our forefathers as racists and colonizers who despoiled an idyllic Eden. Certainly, we should not revere the Founders of our nation as God-like figures, but we should acknowledge that slave holders like Washington, Jefferson, Madison and Monroe bequeathed us a government that gave us, over time, Lincoln and the Emancipation Proclamation, and then, a hundred years further on, Civil Rights. Is all perfect today? No. We should always strive to improve, but we should never lose sight of the fact that it has been our history of free speech, free enterprise and limited government that have been foundational to our culture and economic growth, the latter which has provided us with living standards unimaginable to our grandparents, even to our parents.

 

Without a common enemy to hate, such as Nazi Germany or the Soviet Union, we have lost our moral compass. The substitution of climate change as an “existential threat,” while popular among Western elitists, does not work. It is an excuse to justify more government control. The Earth’s climate has changed continuously over its billions of years of existence, long before man made his appearance. It will continue to change. Like all living things, man must adapt. It is true that man has used many of the Earth’s resources to improve his living standards, which certainly has had some effect on climate. But, as aspiration, ability, diligence, and free markets made him wealthier and gave him more leisure time, he became more conscious of his environment. When an individual is battling for subsistence he cares not what happens to his waste. The best way to improve the environment in the undeveloped world is to promote economic growth. 

 

The absence of morality is deadly. It can be seen in the attitude of Western politicians who apply a moral equivalence toward the democratic nation of Israel and the terrorist organization Hamas, which governs (or did govern) Gaza. When six hostages were recently shot execution-style by Hamas terrorists, the reaction by the White House (and most leaders in Europe) was to blame Israel along with Hamas, but specifically Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for failing to achieve a cease fire. Why have we lost our sense of right and wrong? The West is challenged in many places. Leaders of China want hegemony in the Pacific, Russia’s Putin wants to restore his country’s Soviet empire, and Iran would like to dominate the Middle East. America’s role should be that “shining city on the hill,” a phrase first used by Jesus in his Sermon on the Mount, then by John Winthrop in 1630, and 259 years later by Ronald Reagan – an example of what man is capable.  

 

I am not so cynical as to believe that someone, or some group, is deliberately trying to undermine our nation and its values – family, work, accountability and responsibility, courage, respect for others, individualism and unity, fairness, merit, care for those less fortunate – though it sometimes seems that way. What I do know is that something is wrong in our country, and in the West – it is the fissures that divide us; it is the sense of entitlement that permeates our bureaucracy and some of our people; it is the claim that exceptional achievements of thousands of individual Americans over hundreds of years was only possible because of a benevolent state. Newt Gingrich is right. Our politics is undergoing a profound (and disheartening) change. We should never be blind to our faults. We should always strive to improve our lot and that of those around us. But we should celebrate our successes, and we should learn from our failures. 

 

At its essence, the United States has been a virtuous country, as has been the West. Both provided individuals the freedom to succeed based on merit, which, in turn, has raised living standards for their citizens, and both have given promise of opportunities to millions who live elsewhere, those whose lives have been reduced by dictators and barbarians. Both have defended freedom. But when nations ignore the moral compass that allowed them to succeed, when they denigrate their history and disregard their Judeo-Christian heritage, they offer an opening to authoritarians, whether from the right or the left. That is what is rotten, and that is the risk the U.S. and the West face.

 

 

 

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[1] William Shakespeare, Hamlet, Act I, Scene IV