"The Boy Who Cried Wolf"

 I yearn for a Ronald Reagan-type figure to emerge from our political landscape. The idea of doing a deal with Putin that would satisfy a few days demand for diesel fuel, and at the same time bad-mouthing Mr. Zelensky who has done miracles for the people of Ukraine, strikes me as dangerous and the height of idiocy. And certainly I would never buy a watch stamped “Trump.” And the idea that we should make a martyr, through a public execution, of U.S. Army major Nidal Hasan, an Islamic terrorist who killed 13 people at Fort Hood in Texas seven years ago is unnecessarily provocative and just plain stupid.

 

What has happened to us, or, I should say to our political leaders. The loudest voices on the left are advocating a path toward Socialism. Are there any common-sensical politicians out there? 

 

Perhaps. I read with admiration Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s speech last Wednesday in Athens – a call for Western nations to reconnect with their civilizational and historical roots. I just hope his wisdom and decency prevail. If you have not read it, pull it up on the internet.

 

 

Sydney M. Williams

 

Thought of the Day

“The Boy Who Cried Wolf”

October 14, 2026

 

“The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populous alarmed (and hence clamorous

to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.”

                                                                                                                                    H.L. Mencken (1880-1956)

                                                                                                                                    In Defense of Women, 1918

 

Almost sixty years before Mencken wrote the line quoted above, Ralph Waldo Emerson, in his essay “Self-Reliance,” expressed similar concerns: “A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines.” In his dystopian novels Animal Farm and 1984, George Orwell wrote of his misgivings for “groupthink” and “doublethink” – where the desire for group harmony overrides critical thinking and reasoned debate.

 

In last Tuesday’s The Wall Street Journal, Steven Koonin and Dr. Scott Atlas wrote analogously, in an op-ed titled “Covid, Climate and the ‘Consensus Trap:’” “We should neither be wholly distrustful of expertise nor subservient to it without critical challenge. We must institute safeguards that make expertise trustworthy: transparency about uncertainty, protection for those who test it, and real consequences when things go wrong.”

 

While Koonin and Atlas were writing of global warming scares, the 2008 credit crisis and Covid, they could have included the recent reaction of many, including mainstream media, politicians and some industry leaders to potential dangers stemming from AI. This is not to suggest that the planet is not in a warming cycle, that debt does not pose risks, that contagious respiratory diseases should be ignored, or that artificial intelligence cannot be used for nefarious purposes. Life is filled with risks, which must be carefully assessed. But sensible risk-taking is integral to a free society that seeks advancement. A police state promises security, but at a price no lover of freedom wants to pay. 

 

There are natural risks over which we have little control. Paleontologists tell us that during the Mesozoic Era (250 to 60 million years ago) the Earth’s temperature was ten to fourteen degrees warmer than it is today. During the peak of the last ice age (10,000 to 11,000 years ago), the temperature was ten to twelve degrees colder than today. Paleoclimatologists attribute those changes to small adjustments in the Earth’s orbit, the tilt on its axis, atmospheric greenhouse gasses, volcanic eruptions and ocean currents. However, these same people estimate that the Earth will survive another four to five billion years. Certainly, man has had an effect on the environment and the weather, but are his effects existential? When I note a ten degree upward (or downward) change in the outside temperature in 24 hours, I marvel at the power of nature – the energy required to warm (or cool) millions of cubic feet of the Earth’s atmosphere in a relatively short time. We face many challenges, but I doubt climate catastrophe is in our immediate future. 

 

The 2008 credit crisis was largely a consequence of political pressure to increase home ownership through government guaranteed loans, while encouraging rating agencies to make subprime mortgages appear safe to lenders. When the economy turned down jobs were lost and foreclosures increased. Yet no one – not politicians, Wall Street bankers, or homebuyers who took on more debt than they should have – assumed responsibility. Largely ignored today by both media and politicians is a real crisis – the size of the federal government’s debt and its entitlement obligations. 

 

Lockdowns of schools were seen as one answer to Covid, even as the lethality was largely centered on the elderly. The human cost can be seen in declines in student academic performance, but have we seen or heard any mea culpas?

 

Mencken was right. Alarming voters propels some politicians into seats of power. As well, such tactics enrich others. Artificial intelligence seems to be the latest target. We have been told that mankind could become extinct in a few years, that a billion people might die. What they mean – but what gets little press – is that a bad actor (a human) could gain control. That is true, as it would be if, for example, Iran got an atomic bomb, and as it was when Mohamed Atta took control of American Airlines Flight 11 on 9/11. Good and evil are not characteristics of weather, markets, pathogens or software. They are traits of humans. The technology already exists to shut down our banking system, close our power grid and interrupt air control. It is critical that we stay ahead of those individuals and nations who would do us harm. Regulation may be needed; for that reason President Trump appointed National Intelligence Director Jay Clayton, former Chair of the SEC, to serve as the Administration’s AI leader.

 

To the best of my knowledge there is no magic formula that erases evil from mankind. But the teaching of ethics is not a bad place to start. The Bible teaches that all humans have the capacity to do harm and good. Morality is not relative; it is universal, as the Ten Commandments make clear. Artificial Intelligence, in the wrong hands, makes easier the ability to cause harm, which is why it is imperative we, as a nation, stay in the lead in its development. Democracy may not be the perfect form of government and free-market capitalism may not be the most equitable economic system, but history shows that no better system has ever been devised.

 

The title of this essay comes from Aesop Fables. Its moral: Because the boy had shown himself a liar, when a wolf did appear no one believed him, and the sheep were scattered. A few of those who warn of the evil of Artificial Intelligence may truly believe in the Frankenstein traits of what they have created. Others fear liability suits or want to discourage competition. Some see warnings as a way to enhance their profile. Politicians see virtue in scaring the public, as it sends people running for the cover of a benevolent government. And there will be a small number whose interest is in having U.S. companies slow their research and development, which would allow China and others to surge ahead.

 

Beware the alarmists.

"Common Sense & COVID-19"

Sydney M. Williams

30 Bokum Road – Apartment 314

Essex, CT 06426

www.swtotd.blogspot.com

 

Thought of the Day

“Common Sense & COVID-19”

October 15, 2020

 

“Common sense is seeing things as they are,
and doing things as they ought to be.”

Harriet Beecher Stowe (1811-1896)

 

A desire for more power for themselves and the state, identity politics and unadulterated hatred for Mr. Trump, have driven common sense into the nether regions of the progressive mind. The Oxford English Dictionary defines common sense as “good sense and sound judgement in practical matters.” It is, as Harriet Beecher Stowe put it, “seeing things as they are,” not as we might like them to be. It is, according to Thomas Edison, an imperative quality: “The three essentials to achieve anything are: first, hard work; second, stick-to-itiveness; third, common sense.” A lack of common sense infects all issues, from the economy, to climate, to the Senate Judiciary Committee. It is the effect of a lack of common sense regarding COVID-19 and reactions to it that concerns this essay. 

 

We have always lived in a politicized world, but we now live in one made more pervasive by the advent of the internet and social media. Attitudes toward masks have become flashpoints in the battle against COVID-19. It is said that opinions regarding masks differentiate Democrats from Republicans. Perhaps, but it sounds too simplistic. I do believe, however, that one can distinguish the individual who abrogates rational behavior to a political narrative. A friend wears a mask when driving alone in his car, but unlike many on the left he is honest as to his reason. He admits the purpose is to send a signal that he cares – not to protect himself or others against the virus – but a sign of his righteousness. But he ignores risks to his health; for, no matter how “woke” he may feel, we all need the fresh air an open car window provides. Dr. Margarite Griesz-Brisson, a German Consultant Neurologist and Neurophysiologist is quoted: “We know that the human brain is very sensitive to oxygen deprivation. There are nerve cells, for example, in the hippocampus that can’t be longer than three minutes without oxygen – they cannot survive.” It is an opinion that resonates common sense. Yet, Mr. Trump is ridiculed for removing his mask, when ten or twenty feet from others, while Mr. Biden has spoken of imposing a nation-wide mask-wearing mandate.

 

Believing it helps Mr. Biden, mainstream media highlights the number of COVID-19 infections in the U.S. and compare them unfavorably with the rest of the world. They ignore an inconvenient perspective – a higher number of tests per thousand people yields a higher number of positive cases. The U.S. has been testing 2.87 people per thousand, while Canada, France and Germany are testing a third fewer. More tests generate more confirmed cases. Hospitalizations, a more important number, get little attention probably because those numbers are down by two thirds since a bump in July, despite more people testing positive. And positivity rates likely do not indicate the extent of the spread. Most officials argue the number of 7.5 million Americans having tested positive for COVID-19 is likely off by 90%, suggesting the real number is closer to 75 million, with the vast majority being asymptomatic.  

 

The Left prefers draconian “lockdowns” to a system that, first, protects the vulnerable and then, with commonsensical safeguards, opens the economy. Their priority, as explained by Mr. Biden, is to defeat the virus before addressing the economy. It is an elitist attitude that assumes everyone can either work from home, can live for a year without an income, or assumes taxpayers will make up the difference, oblivious to the fact the economy has been stunted. As Dr. Scott Atlas said, a “lockdown is a luxury of the rich.” It is a policy that has forced school closings and encouraged remote learning, despite the fact that, for school-age children, the virus is no more dangerous than the flu. The policy has been especially harmful to the nation’s most needy. Nearly 100,000 U.S. businesses, mostly small ones, have gone bankrupt. While the labor participation rate has improved since April, it is still down almost two percentage points from before the pandemic, which means there are still three million fewer people employed than at year end 2019. Lockdowns have unintended consequences. For example, in my state of Connecticut, domestic violence shelters are running at 150% of capacity, requiring victims to be placed in hotels.

 

The Left claims to “follow the science,” yet the science they follow is one that accords only with their political views. When the science is at odds with their predetermined narrative, it is rejected. The Great Barrington Declaration is a case in point. It is a treatise prepared by three epidemiologists from Stanford, Harvard and Oxford: Doctors Jay Bhattacharya, Martin Kulldorff and Sunetra Gupta, respectively. Joel Achenbach, writing for the Associated Press, referred to them as “maverick scientists,” a comment that says more about Mr. Achenbach than it does about the three doctors. The doctors urge adoption of what they term “focused protection” of the vulnerable, while publicly acknowledging the increasing evidence that “current lockdowns are producing devastating effects on short and long-term public health,” and that “keeping these measures in place until a vaccine is available will cause irreparable damage, with the underprivileged disproportionately harmed.” The paper has been signed by over 30,000 doctors and scientists around the world. The Left’s denial of the group’s authenticity is based on the fact that the research was underwritten by the American Institute for Economic Research, a think tank in part funded by the “hated” Koch family. Science is never fixed; it is always a work-in-progress.

 

Common sense says listen to all sides, then form your decisions. In my case, it means wearing a mask when inside and around strangers, or outside if people come within six or ten feet. I wash my hands, often and carefully. I avoid crowded venues and socially distance. I use sanitizers. Most importantly, I try to employ common sense and try not to be fearful. If you are not infected and you know the same is true of those with you, i.e. your family, a mask is unnecessary. When outside, alone and in the fresh air, a mask does more harm than good, as we inhale oxygen and exhale carbon dioxide. The idea that a mask mandate should be imposed is ridiculous, harmful and serves no purpose other than to fire up a partisan divide. There has been no such talk of mandating surgical gloves, yet when I pump gas or go into a supermarket, I wear them, because my judgement tells me it makes sense. Public policy should assure protection of the vulnerable, but it should also be cognizant of the harmful psychological effects of loneliness; it should let students return to schools and allow the economy to sensibly reopen. We should be fully aware of and never forget the unintended consequences of public policies gone awry.   

 

A lack of common sense is manifest across our culture and society. It could be seen last year when 181 CEOs of U.S. companies, desirous to be “woke,” committed to “stakeholder capitalism, a “collective creed of workers, customers, communities, climate and country,” as Andy Kessler wrote in The Wall Street Journal. The term “stakeholder capitalism” stirs the emotional loins but is redundant. Businesses that do not treat its workers well, keep customers happy, pay taxes, and heed rules and regulations will be out of business. That’s the way markets work. It is common sense. Milton Friedman’s advice of a half a century ago remains applicable: “The social responsibility of business is to increase its profits.” If it does, workers, customers and the community thrive. If it does not, they do not. A lack of common sense can be seen in the adamancy of climate advocates who claim anyone who questions their advocacy is a “denier.”

 

Philip Stanhope, Lord Chesterfield, in a letter to his son, wrote: “A weak mind with no common sense magnifies trifling things and cannot receive great ones.” Those words characterize progressives intent on abandoning rational discourse for the sake of a narrative that serves their desires – more power for themselves and the state.

"COVID -19 Has Gone to College - Or Has It?"

                                                             Sydney M. Williams

www.swtotd.blogspot.com

 

Thought of the Day

“COVID-19 Has Gone to College – Or Has It?”

September 11, 2020

 

“Education is the most powerful weapon

you can use to change the world.”

                                                                                                Nelson Mandela (1918-2013)

                                                                                                Speech, July 16, 2003

 

A critical component of democracy is education. The perpetuation of our political institutions, as Abraham Lincoln warned in Springfield, Illinois on a January evening in 1838, is not a given. Passion, he warned, can be our enemy. “Reason, cold, calculating, unimpassioned reason must furnish all the materials for our future support and defense.” It is to teach one to reason, to think, to calculate that universities exist.

 

In his 1916 book Democracy and Education, the educational reformer John Dewey argued it is education that allows youth to become productive members of society. Franklin Roosevelt said that “the real safeguard to democracy is education.” It is a sentiment that has been expressed by hundreds of politicians and philosophers over the years. Today, in a risk adverse world, schools, colleges and universities weigh needs of students to learn versus fear of COVID-19 and lawsuits that might ensue. Nevertheless, online learning is no substitute for in-person classrooms.

 

Most would agree that a failure to open schools and colleges is harmful to students. However, there are some administrators and professors (as well as a few students) who are vulnerable, either because of age or comorbidities, so universities should proceed with caution. There are, however, some who want to keep the pandemic alive for political purposes, a view endorsed by mainstream media. A New York Times article last Sunday was headlined: “A New Front in America’s Pandemic: College Towns.” The article, which focused on the University of Iowa, reported there were “about 100 college communities around the country where infections have spiked in recent weeks as students returned for the fall semester” – a self-evident truth, as students did return to campuses. The article did add that “there has been no uptick in deaths in college communities,” but they failed to mention a subsequent decline in instances. For example, in Iowa City, there was a spike on August 27 and 28 (1,467 and 2,632 cases respectively), but, left unmentioned, by September 1 the number was down to 612 and on September 7 at 408, in line with where it had been before students returned to the campus. The headline was provocative and deceptive.

 

My wife and I have five grandchildren in college this fall, two sophomores and three freshmen. Their evidence is anecdotal but none the less, interesting. They attend five different universities in four states. The eldest is a sophomore at Bucknell, where their COVID-19 Dashboard reports three active cases, with 17,521 tests having been administered so far. She reported she was “not sure what percentage of classes are in person but all of mine meet in person.” She added: “We haven’t been able to play squash yet but the gym is open so I can go there which is nice.”  Our oldest grandson is a sophomore at Brandeis. All students are tested twice a week. For the two weeks ended September 6, 4,417 individuals were tested, with one testing positive. Two students are in isolation. As in all colleges, rules and regulations have been imposed. In an article for his student newspaper, he wrote: “This new regulation remains conscientiously observed to its necessary effect, but only to its necessary effect. The spirit of youth will find a method to express itself…” Youth will be youth! His classes are online and in-person.

 

Our third grandchild is a freshman at Notre Dame. Shortly after her arrival, a COVID-19 outbreak occurred, allegedly from an off-campus party. She wrote: “COVID definitely has a big presence on campus this year (we had to go online for two weeks because our numbers were so high), but now we are back in person.” 9,416 tests have been administered, with one positive case reported on Monday, which was down from 82 on August 19. The fourth oldest grandchild is a freshman at Wake Forest. According to their COVID-19 Dashboard, there have been forty-one positive cases since August 26 and only three in the last three days. He wrote: “COVID also has a big presence on how Wake operates. Most people only have one in-person class.” The fifth grandchild – she turned 18 yesterday! – is at Elon. She texted: “Elon only has 5 active cases and 78 people in isolation. All of my classes are in-person or hybrid, but the sports season is cancelled.” All five are doing well, as they adjust to a unique 2020 campus life.

 

As expected, infections rose as colleges and schools re-opened. But, critically, across the country, hospital occupancies declined, as did deaths – the latter peaked in the week ending April 18 at 17,039 and fell to 1,192 for the week ending August 29. (To put that number in perspective, about 55,000 Americans die every week.) As Dr. Scott Atlas, special adviser to the president and member of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, wrote this week in The Hill: “We know who is at risk. Only 0.2% of U.S. deaths [from COVID-19] have been people younger than twenty-five, and 80% have been people over sixty-five.” Schools and colleges, exercising caution, should re-open. Michael Barone, in an op-ed in the New York Post on September 7, pointed out that COVID-19 “has been less deadly to those under 65 than flus were.” Who, when in college, did not get sick?

 

With an election looming, the economy was Mr. Trump’s strongest suit as the year began. Unemployment among minorities was the lowest on record. Wages were rising for those at the low end. The middle class was coming back. The Middle East had quieted. China was being challenged. Then the virus appeared; lockdowns were imposed, schools and colleges were closed, commerce came to a halt. Democrats saw a new opening – vilify the President for his handling of the virus and keep enough of the economy shut down, so Mr. Trump loses what advantage he had. Substitute election day in-person voting with ever-earlier, and less safe guarded, voting by mail. Then, another shoe dropped. Protests and riots followed the killing of George Floyd, a black man, by a white Minneapolis policeman. That led to the resurrection of the Marxist Black Lives Matter group and gave new life to the fascist Antifa organization. Riots occurred in more than a dozen blue-run cities. People were killed, cars were burned, and property was destroyed. Democrats stuck by the rioters, referring to them as peaceful protesters. They called for the defunding of police, no matter the damage they had done to the lives and property of law-abiding citizens.

 

It was inevitable that COV ID-19 would be politicized. We will leave it to future historians as to whether the lockdowns and school closings were necessary. While we do not have a vaccine for the disease, we know more than we did six months ago – who is vulnerable, who is not, what medicines work, which do not, the value of sanitizing, masks and social distancing. Nevertheless, incredibly, Democrat Vice President candidate, Kamala Harris warned people not to get vaccinated against COVID-19, if one is developed and approved by the CDC and FDA before the election. So, is science to be ignored when it does not fit the narrative?

 

In answer to the question posed in the title of this essay – yes, COVID-19 has gone to college, a nuisance but not deadly and largely abiding in seclusion. As much as we would like, we cannot live without risk. Colleges should accept what risks exist and open normally. To not do so is to deprive the roughly twenty million college students from opportunities they have earned, and which they deserve.