"The Month That Was - June 2018"

Sydney M. Williams

The Month That Was – June 2018

July 1, 2018

“I went to Cannes – leaving Jeeves behind, he having intimated that

he did not wish to miss Ascot – round about the beginning of June.”

                                                                                                P.G. Wodehouse (1881-1975)

                                                                                                Right Ho, Jeeves, 1934

Perhaps the universe operates according to a plan? I don’t know. But life on earth is in constant and unpredictable flux. Change is ever-present, whether caused by nature or man. What is needed are pilots to help navigate treacherous shoals, not whether to move left or right, but to plot courses based on a moral compass, in accordance with the ideals laid down by the Founding Fathers and one dependent on simple, proven principles of right and wrong, like common sense, the Ten Commandments, or Jordan Peterson’s “12 Rules for Life.”

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No month is without news highlights and June was no different. Certainly, Singapore vied for top billing. However, the story in the winning envelope was the release of the Inspector General’s report on its probe into the actions of the FBI and the Justice Department during the summer of 2016. It tells a story of corruption, collusion and bias within the nation’s premier law enforcement agency. Even The New York Timesreported that it painted a harsh portrait of the FBI during the 2016 presidential election, describing a destructive culture in which James Comey, the former director was “insubordinate… Senior officials privately bashed Donald J. Trump, and agents came to distrust prosecutors.” Current FBI Director Christopher Wray, in a subsequent press conference, appeared in denial: He said he took the report seriously, but nothing in it “impugns the integrity” of the FBI. “Our brand is doing just fine.” The Wall Street Journalreported: “Though IG Michael Horowitz’s conclusions are measured, his facts are damning.” While the report claimed there was no documentary or testimonial evidence to suggest political bias, facts suggested otherwise. Most damning was the text exchange between Peter Strzok, the FBI agent in charge of the Trump-Russia investigation and his paramour, top FBI lawyer Lisa Page. In August 2016, Ms. Page texted Mr. Strzok, “[Trump’s]not ever going to become president, right?” Mr. Strzok responded, “No. No, he won’t. We’ll stop it.”

On the day the news broke, the Times gave space for Mr. Comey to respond in an op-ed, which he did, in his familiar, sanctimonious manner, giving lie to the title of his self-serving book. One consequence of the IG report: the Mueller investigation may face a legal obstacle. As David Rivkin and Elizabeth Price Foley recently wrote in The Wall Street Journal, the investigation “is tainted by antecedent political bias.”

The reason this story came before the Trump-Kim meeting is that a self-governing democracy, which is the United States, relies on trust in its institutions, especially those that enforce the nation’s laws. The principal threat to democracy is not an external enemy; it is when the foundations of a republic crumble from within – when freedoms give way to the insidious demands of omnipotent government, when emotional outcries supersede rational responses. Its demise can be a function of a people grown too dependent on government’s largesse, when people forego personal freedom for the comfort of assured care. Unscrupulous politicians take advantage of people’s proclivity to be led. Democracies can also end in anarchy, with a loss of trust in leaders and government institutions. The Founder’s concept of liberty held that self-determined government would include checks and balances, a free people but with the constraint of tradition and civil behavior, all bound by the rule of law. Michael Horowitz’s report was an expose that all is not as it should be.

Clues to watch for in faltering democracies and fledgling tyrannies are more government: higher taxes, increased regulations, and spending that rises faster than GDP. Watch for rogue bureaucrats who put politics above the will of the people, smooth-talking politicians who purport to do good, but in fact deceive citizens and deprive them of liberty. Look out for intensification of partisanship, an inability of Congress to function and the refusal of government employees to heed electoral results. Beware of a backlash.

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The other big news during the month was Singapore – the meeting between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un. Whether their agreement results in de-nuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is anyone’s guess, but it was a step forward. The two participants spoke in glowing terms, despite mutual insults of a few months earlier. Reaction was as expected: Republican lawmakers applauded the summit but were cautious regarding expectations. Democrats said Mr. Trump made too many concessions. Chuck Schumer called it “purely a reality show.” Nancy Pelosi claimed the “hasty” meeting “elevated” the Communist dictator to the world stage. “Never-Trumpers” were silent. The pact to which this agreement is compared is the Iranian deal of 2015. But there are differences. For one, no $400 million in cash has been delivered to Pyongyang on wooden pallets, as was sent to Tehran in 2015. For another, compare Mike Pompeo and John Bolton to John Kerry and Susan Rice. Which team is tougher, more willing to take the harder line? 

As for me, I am from Missouri, skeptical but hopeful, despite Mr. Trump’s propensity for braggadocio. What makes me skeptical are Mr. Trump’s egotism, his imperviousness to criticism and the history of two prior Kim regimes. What makes me hopeful is the overwhelming negative reaction on the part of mainstream media. For example, an article in the June 13 issue of the Financial Times, a once esteemed and unbiased paper, was headlined: “Kim judged clear winner even before ink dries on Trump deal.” The article quoted six “experts,” none of whom had anything positive to say. They claimed Mr. Trump had made “big concessions,” which included a “security guaranty,” but they didn’t say which ones and from whom. The only concession was the announcement that the U.S. would halt joint military exercises with South Korea – something that could be re-started in a matter of months, as our troop level in South Korea is to remain the same. No mention was made that sanctions, which includes ones from China, would remain in place, sanctions that drove Mr. Kim to the bargaining table. No mention was made of Mr. Trump’s own skepticism, embodied in his observation, “we’ll see.” With expectations so low victory may be possible.

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Important for the preservation of the separation of powers was the announced resignation of Supreme Court Associate Justice Anthony Kennedy. His doing so provides Mr. Trump the opportunity to appoint another individual who will help put the Constitution above politics. An overblown, hyped story was one of children being separated from their parents at our southern border, a subject addressed in a TOTD on June 20. I use the word “overblown” because such separations, while never desirable, are nothing new and have been used by Presidents since at least the mid 1990s. The difference is that Mr. Trump was vocal in issuing a “zero tolerance” order regarding illegal crossings. Other Presidents have hidden such draconian actions behind deceptive, sweet-smelling words of inclusion. Until the border is secured, the problem of illegal crossings will persist. One recommendation worth pursuing was made by Victor Davis Hanson of the Hoover Institute at Stamford: Illegals and their families could be housed temporarily in under-used college and university housing during summer months. College dorms are better decorated, beds more comfortable and meals tastier and more nutritious than those found on Army bases. Besides, it would provide elites a chance to get to know people they know now only as symbols and see only at a distance. 

The U.S. withdrew from the UN Human Rights Council, which has become a platform for authoritarian countries, like Cuba, Rwanda and Venezuela. It has little to do with human rights. The Group of 7 met in Quebec City and ended with school-yard taunts in which all leaders looked ridiculous, especially the six who decided not to accept Mr. Trump’s recommendation that all tariffs be abandoned. In Colombia, the pro-business candidate Iván Duque Márquez beat former guerilla Gustavo Petro for the Presidency. Italy’s new coalition government will be comprised of the right-wing League, which won 37% of the vote and the left-wing Five-Star Movement, which won 32%. Spain unveiled a new government led by Socialist Pedro Sánchez but could be short-lived as his party has only a quarter of the seats in Parliament. He introduced his “pro-gender-equality, cross-generational” cabinet, which hopefully includes the best and the brightest. Mexico’s election will be held today, July 1. It is widely expected that the left-leaning anti-American Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) will win. President Trump announced he would meet with Vladimir Putin on July 15 in Finland. “Remainders” in the UK, taking their cue from “Resistors” in the U.S., blamed Russian interference for Brexit, not free and democratic elections.

Five people were killed when Jarrod Ramos, a man with a grudge against Annapolis’Capital Gazette, blasted his way into the newsroom, killing five and wounding two. Four Supreme Court decisions will have long-lasting effect. All were 5-4 decisions, indicating the political polarization of a court that should be above politics. In Janus v. AFSCME, the Court decided for the plaintiff – that unions cannot force members to pay for political activities with which the individual disagrees. In South Dakota v. Wayfair, the Court determined that state and local taxes must be collected by on-line sellers, regardless of whether the seller has an operation within the state. In National Institute of Family and Life Advocates v. Becerra, the Court ruled that the First Amendment prohibits the State of California from compelling licensed pro-life centers to post information on how to obtain a state-funded abortion. In Trump v. Hawaii, the Court upheld the President’s right to impose a travel ban on those countries he deems a threat to national security. Primaries were held in a number of states. While generalizations are famously inaccurate, Trump-backed Republicans did well, while Democrats swung further left, reminding one of Yeats: “…Things fall apart; the center cannot hold.”  

   

In financial markets, the most noteworthy changes during the second quarter were the rise in short rates, accompanied by a flattening of the yield curve – from 104 basis points to 92; declines in the price of gold and Bitcoins, and rises in oil prices and the U.S. Dollar. The TED spread – the difference between 3-Month Libor and 3-Month US Treasuries – narrowed, indicating less perceived credit risk. Bucking modestly positive stock market trends were the Shanghai Index and the Emerging Market Index, both down about ten percent. For the month, stocks in the U.S. were generally flat – the DJIA closed down 0.006% and the S&P 500 closed up 0.005%. Volatility ebbed. The Federal Reserve, as expected, raised Fed Funds Rates by a quarter point. The Institute for Supply Management released its report for the non-manufacturing sector, which suggested aggregate demand is overtaking aggregate supply, which, could lead to higher prices and stronger wages. The University of Michigan’s measure of consumer sentiment rose to 99.3 in June, from 98.0 in May. Amazon, JP Morgan and Berkshire Hathaway named Atul Gawande, a prominent surgeon and writer, to become CEO of their joint venture to tackle US-employee healthcare. Trade and tariff wars remained on center stage, affecting market commentators more than markets. Whether they reflect a game of chicken, blind-man’s bluff, or the hard-ball negotiating tactics of the Trump Administration remains to be seen. (I suspect the latter.)   

The announcement by Harley Davidson, the iconic American manufacturer of motorcycles, that they would move some production to Thailand caused an uproar, a manifestation of the hyperbole on the part of politicians and the press, and indicative of the political chasm that seems unbridgeable. Both sides exaggerated the planned move. First, the company initially announced the decision in January, to little fanfare. Second, Harley already has manufacturing facilities in Australia, Brazil, India and Thailand. Keep in mind, companies have four constituents: customers, employees, shareholders and communities. To the best of their ability they must satisfy all, which is what Harley Davidson is attempting. Michael Bloomberg said he would spend $80 million on behalf of Democrat candidates in the mid-term elections. Some Amazon employees said they will not be involved in selling face-recognition equipment to law enforcement agencies. (Ironically, it was face recognition technology that led to the identification of Jarrod Ramos in Annapolis.) A team of medical researchers at Mt. Sinai in New York City concluded that certain viruses, including Herpes, affect the behavior of genes involved in Alzheimer’s. The photograph “crying child,” used as a cover on Time Magazineto highlight the Trump Administration’s separation of children from their parents at our southern border, was phony. The child was with her mother. Wildfires in Colorado destroyed over 1000 homes and twenty-six square miles. The morally-challenged Samantha Bee called Ivanka Trump a “c—t”, with Sally Fields seconding the description. Not to be outdone, the verbally-challenged Robert De Niro, at the Tony Awards, twice repeated his call for action: “f—k Trump.”  “The Band’s Visit” won the Tony for the best new musical. “Koko,” the gorilla who charmed Mr. Rogers, died at age forty-six. New York City Mayor de Blasio chose to water down admission criteria at the City’s elite public school, swapping intellect for a more representational balance of race and ethnicity. Kathleen Kraninger, of the White House Office of Management and Budget, was nominated to lead the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau (CFBP.) Inexplicably, the FDA decided that “pure” maple syrup must carry the label, “Sugar added.”

New Zealand’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern gave birth to a baby girl, the second elected leader in modern times to give birth while in office. (In 1990, Pakistan Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto gave birth to a daughter.) Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan was returned to office with 53% of the vote. The long-running dispute between Greece and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia looked like it came to an end with the naming of the country just north of Greece as the Republic of North Macedonia, but not all i’s are dotted, or t’s crossed. Spain accepted 629 migrants stranded when Italy’s new government refused them entry. (Over the past four years, Italy, a country of 60 million, has taken in 640,000 migrants.) Pope Francis met with a group of oil company executives to discuss climate change. An earthquake in Guatemala’s left 300 dead or missing. Studies published in the Journal of Science indicated that discoveries by NASA’s “Curiosity Rover” showed traces of Methane on Mars, indicating that life might once have existed there. In a case of political correctness carried too far, Tommy Robinson, a British journalist was jailed for live-streaming activities outside a courthouse in Leeds where some Muslim men were facing trial on charges of child rape and sex trafficking, “grooming” is the euphemism used for such mendacious behavior by the British courts, when it applies to Muslim men. 

In sports, the Golden State Warriors won the NBA championship and the Washington Capitals won the Stanley Cup. The French Open was won by Simona Halep (Romania) and Rafael Nadal (Spain). “Justify” won the Belmont Stakes, the 13th three-year-old to win the Triple Crown. Brooks Koepka won the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills. Yale beat Harvard in the 153^rdBoat Race on the Thames in New London, CT. 

The Grim Reaper made his appearance and took away a number of our finest: Gena Turgel, a Holocaust survivor who helped Anne Frank in her final days and who found love with a British soldier-liberator. She died at 95. Ellan Brennan, matriarch of one of the nation’s premier restaurants, Commander’s Palace in New Orleans, died at 92. Poet Laureate and New Hampshire resident Donald Hall died at 89. Sadly, suicide took Kate Spade at 55 and Anthony Bourdain at 61. A neighbor and friend In Essex, Douglas Bennet, who led both NPR and Wesleyan University, died at 79. And my good friend Harold Rubin died of Multiple Myeloma, at age 76.

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Not all the news was dramatic, horrific or just plain bad. Three items during the month suggest a nascent, positive change in higher education: The first was an interview on C-Span with Yale Professor John Lewis Gaddis, author of On Grand Strategy. Professor Gaddis discussed the Yale-sponsored sojourns he requests of his students, to spend time in small towns across the U.S. The idea is to immerse themselves in the world outside the ivied walls within which they are privileged to study. Another example: Salena Zito, a political journalist, was recently invited to teach a class on small-town America at Harvard. The students spend two or three days in towns in Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Ohio. Despite myriad ethnic and socio-economic backgrounds, most students in both colleges came from coastal urban and suburban areas, with similar political viewpoints. The lesson learned is that the wisdom of the people is a far better arbiter of principles of democracy than the dictates of those who have been spent careers in ivory towers. The third item suggesting the possible beginnings of a positive change in higher education was an op-ed in The Wall Street Journalby Emily Esfahani Smith. Ms. Smith is with the Hoover Institute. She wrote of Heterodox Academy, an organization founded in 2015 to promote viewpoint-diversity on campus. The Academy now numbers more than 2000 professors and graduate students in the U.S., and includes such luminaries as Steven Pinker of Harvard, John McWhorter of Columbia and Robert George of Princeton. In 2015, the University of Chicago issued a statement validating the importance of free speech. To date, forty-two colleges, from Columbia to the University of Minnesota, have adopted the Chicago principles. It is true that these examples represent a small fraction of our educational institutions, but, as the saying goes, from little acorns giant Oak trees grow. It is a start.

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June was a month of remembrances. Seventy-eight years ago, on June 4-12, 1940, 338,000 British soldiers were evacuated from Dunkirk, because thousands of civilians risked their lives to save their fellow countrymen. Four years later, on June 6, 1944, a full complement of Allied soldiers returned to the beaches at Normandy; the re-taking of Europe began.

We enter July, the start of the second half of the year and the month we celebrate our Declaration of Independence. It is a fitting time to consider the hard-fought unity that brought forth that document and to recognize the civility that permitted its issuance, and which is necessary for our democracy to survive.

The Month That Was - May 2018

Sydney M. Williams

The Month That Was – May 2018

May 31, 2018

“As full as spirit as the month of May,

And as gorgeous as the sun in midsummer.”

                                                                                                Henry IV, Part I

                                                                                                Williams Shakespeare

What a month! The anti-Trump venom persisted…and worsened. It came into sharper focus with the news that the FBI, under the Obama Administration, had inserted Stefan Halper as a spy (or informant, as the New York Times euphemistically called him) into the Trump campaign – ‘Operation Crossfire,’ as it was dubbed – “benign information gathering,” as James Clapper put it[1]. This is in addition to the dubiously obtained FISA warrants to surveil the Trump organization. Not since Lyndon Johnson spied on Goldwater in 1964 has the FBI been so blatantly used for political purposes. But, where is the outrage over the use of government to silence the opposition? Incredibly (and fortunately), it is having little effect on Mr. Trump’s policies here or abroad – like the tax bill, deregulation, North Korea, Jerusalem and Iran. 

As for the latter, the EU is upset over Mr. Trump’s failure to recertify the Iran nuclear deal. Only a people who viewed Mr. Obama’s Iran deal through the commercial lens of their largest companies would be so unconcerned with a rogue nation that has used its new-found wealth to fund militarization and terrorism. Only a people protected by their big brother in North America would not fret about the nuclear ambitions of Iran.(Despite the EU having a slightly larger economy, the U.S. spends more than two and a half times what the EU does on defense, and a big slice of that spending is in defense of Europe.)

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Consider the month’s news: The spiking of the Iran nuclear deal (a deal which Mr. Obama realized the Senate would never support); setting a date (possibly) to meet with Kim Jong-un, and re-locating (finally) the U.S. Embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Curiously, but not surprisingly, the Left derided all three decisions. Nancy Pelosi criticized the President for meeting with Mr. Kim and then criticized him for renegotiating the terms. The movement of the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem was accomplished, but both Iran (financial sanctions and a new deal) and North Korea (denuclearization of the Peninsula) remain works in progress. The Left is in denial: How does an outsider, a boorish, unprincipled ignoramus, with dyed-blonde hair, accomplish what sanctimonious political elites could not? 

North Korea released three American hostages and blew up tunnels at its Punggye-ri testing site. (Admittedly, that site was probably unusable.) To protest the opening of the U.S. Embassy, Hamas (and Iran) showed their true colors, sending (paid) demonstrators to their deaths in Gaza. Iran fired rockets at Israel’s Golan Heights from bases in Syria, which were knocked down by Israel’s superior technology. Later, a number of Iranian bases in Syria were destroyed by Israel’s air force. Trade wars spurted, spluttered and spurted. Republicans in Congress took issue with Mr. Trump’s decision to rescue China’s telecom company ZTE. But, we must remember that Mr. Trump, like the fox to Congress’s hedgehog, is playing multiple hands with China – North Korea, relations with Iran, a laser attack from an air base in Djibouti and military bases in the South China Sea. Congress, playing to special interests and the media, like the hedgehog, takes on one issue at a time.

Nicolas Maduro’s re-election in Venezuela was fore-ordained and will worsen the condition of its people. Following imposition of new sanctions, the U.S. Envoy in Caracas was expelled. In a surprise, Iraq’s Muqtada al-Sadr’s coalition was the big winner in his country’s Parliamentary elections. Mr. al-Sadr was strongly anti-American during the 2003 invasion but is now strongly anti-Iran. Shia terrorist groups Hezbollah and Amal were the big winners in Lebanon’s election. Ninety-two-year-old former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad defeated his former mentee, current Prime Minister Najib Razak. The latter has been embroiled in corruption charges. This was the first defeat for the Barisan Nasional coalition since Malaysia was untethered from Great Britain in 1957. In Italy, President Sergio Mattarella’s decision to reject the attempt of two rival populist parties – 5-Star Movement and the League – to form a government was applauded in Brussels and y the liberal media, but it risks democracy in the Eurozone’s third largest economy. In a decision that could have come from Lewis Carroll, Syria was named president of the United Nation’s Conference on Disarmament. For virtually the entire month Hawaii’s Kilaueu’s volcano on the Big Island has been spilling lava, releasing toxic gasses and erupting molten rocks. 

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The latest school shootings in Texas, in which ten people died, means we must re-think our response to mass gun violence. We are living with an epidemic that is expanding geometrically. The Left says curtail guns. The Right insists on adherence to the 2^ndAmendment. We must think outside the box. Stricter rules regarding gun-ownership make sense and I see no civilian need for automatic assault rifles. But guns have always been common. Our home in the small New Hampshire town where I grew up was likely the only one without weapons, yet even gun accidents were rare. Personally, I am not a fan of guns; nevertheless, it is not the weapon that is at fault. It is the individual who pulls the trigger.

Wikipedia lists school and college shootings by decade. While perhaps not precisely accurate, the numbers suggest a trend. In the 1940s, there were eight such shootings, with eleven dead. In the 1950s, the number doubled to sixteen, with fourteen dead. In the 1960s, nineteen shootings left forty-four dead. In the 1970s, there were thirty-one attacks, leaving thirty-seven dead. In the 1980s, that rose to forty-one, with fifty-one losing their lives. In the 1990s, sixty-six shootings left ninety-three dead. In the 2000s, sixty-five shootings caused one hundred and eleven to die. And, in the 2010s, just through 2014, there have been 93 shootings, with ninety-one dead. If we take this contagion seriously, as we must, Congress will have to consider, besides gun laws, the role of mental health and the culture of violence that permeates our lives, from Hollywood to rock music, video games and late-night talk shows. Families and communities must be unafraid to call-out mental issues where they exist. Political correctness should be abandoned. Parents and schools must re-focus on old-fashioned rules: civility, respect, manners and decency. 

During the month Connecticut joined eleven states and the District of Columbia in approving a National Popular Vote compact, which would require each participating state to allocate its electors to the winner of the national popular vote, regardless of how its citizens voted. What they want: eliminate the Electoral College. Connecticut’s vote, hasty and unwise, was taken in response to the 2016 election. Keep in mind, Mrs. Clinton’s popular victory was made possible because of only two states – New York and California. What is being implied (but unsaid) is that smaller states don’t count. Ironically, at the Constitutional Convention in 1787, the author of the Great Compromise, which gave Congress its bicameral structure, was Connecticut’s Roger Sherman. The Compromise ensured that small states would get equal representation in the Senate, while the House would reflect population. It is one of the fundamental elements in the checks and balances that have allowed our government to survive over two hundred years. “I do not, gentlemen, trust you,” said Gunning Bedford of Delaware. “If you possess the power, the abuse of it could not be checked; and what then would prevent you from exercising it to our destruction?” Wiser heads than those in Connecticut, I hope, will prevail.

In a case that pitted the National Collegiate Athletic Association against the State of New Jersey, the Supreme Court, in a 6-3 decision, struck down a 1992 law, the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act, which prohibited states from authorizing gambling. The federalist in me said that was a good thing, individual states should make such decisions. The financier in me said this will help states in economic distress. However, the moralist in me said this was a terrible decision. It will encourage gambling – the belief that riches can come from little or no effort. Gambling is addictive and encourages bad behavior. It can lead to depression, criminal activities and bankruptcy. The National Council on Problem Gambling claims that 16% of Americans gamble at least once a week. Like the lottery, it will provide funds to states but do so via a regressive tax. If not accompanied by fiscal restraint, it will do nothing to reduce deficits. 

Elsewhere, domestically, Gina Haspel was confirmed as the first woman Director of the CIA. Midterm and state elections are under way. Primaries and conventions were held in Connecticut, Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia, Idaho, Nebraska, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky and Texas. 

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Stocks meandered, on light volume, with diminished volatility. For the month, the DJIA closed up 2%. It is the bond market where attention should be paid. James Grant, in the May 4 issue of “Grant’s Interest Rate Observer,” wrote: “For the first time since 1981, Treasuries (U.S.) have delivered a negative, inflation adjusted return over the trailing three years.” The U.S. bull market in bonds began in September 1981 when the yield on the Ten-year reached 15.68%. It troughed two years ago (thirty-five years later), with the yield at 1.39%. It closed this month at 2.8%. Like any market, prices (and yields) don’t go in straight lines, but one can infer whether one is in a long-term bear or bull market. My conclusion is that a bear market in bonds began two years ago; but tops and bottoms of markets can extend across months, if not years. Central banks around the world have become (or are becoming) less expansionary, but you wouldn’t know it when looking at yields on some European bonds. The yield on the U.S. Two-year, at 2.4%, exceeds the yield on government Ten-year bonds in Germany, France, the UK and Spain. I find it hard to believe that Europe, with its slower economic growth and more socialist ways, is more credit worthy than the U.S. However, that spread differential – undeserved, in my opinion – has strengthened the Dollar and could cause U.S.  Treasury yields to moderate in the near term, but I suspect that in ten years yields will be higher. 

The concern for stocks is liquidity. Increasingly, trading is dominated by machines: High Frequency Traders (HFTs), index funds and ETFs, where individual company fundamentals matter less than asset allocation decisions. The floor of the NYSE is almost fully automated, not dissimilar to the NASDAQ. The question, to which no one has an answer: what happens when a mini flash-crash turns into a full-blown panic? Ultimately fundamentals would carry the day, but the short term could be scary. Markets are based on faith, trust and confidence – characteristics of people, not machines. One answer: dividends – the ultimate return on stocks. And the IRS could treat dividends as returns of capital, which is what they are. 

The month also saw further declines in the Argentina Peso and the Turkish Lira. Currency depreciation is a concern and reflects a lack of confidence in government and its monetary policy. (The Venezuela Bolivar has fallen 90%, since Maduro came to power in April 2013.) To stem the decline, Argentina’s central bank raised rates to 40%, while the Turkish Central Bank raised its lending rate to 16.5%. The price of crude oil was volatile but flat on the month, but still on an upward path that began in January 2016. The Dollar nudged higher, driven by higher yields on U.S. Treasuries, and Bitcoins were lower by about 20%. Investment manager AllianceBernstein announced a move from Manhattan to Nashville, following other money managers, like PIMCO, Charles Schwab and Fidelity, who are opening offices in Austin, Phoenix, Denver and Dallas. High state and local taxes (and regulatory practices) arewatched by businesses. The second revision to first quarter U.S. GDP showed the economy gaining 2.2 percent.

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The number of births in the U.S., according to the National Center for Health Statistics, dropped by two percent last year, to 60.2 for every 1000 women between the ages of 15 to 44 – the lowest in forty years, giving the U.S. a fertility rate of 1.76. We were at 2.12 in 2007. While there are those who are not concerned about these numbers, lower birth rates reflect a pessimistic view of the future and imperil economic growth. Pope Francis, straying from his spiritual responsibilities, declared that financial derivatives, like credit default swaps are “amoral” and “a ticking time bomb.” This is a man not particularly fond of capitalism, which he has described as “terrorism against humanity.” All Catholic Bishops in Chile offered to resign following revelations of a sex abuse scandal. President Trump announced he wanted to form a fifth branch of the military – a space force. UK reporter Tommy Robinson was jailed on breach of peace charges in Leeds for filming Muslims charged with rape and pedophilia. Missouri Governor, Republican Eric Greitens resigned over a sex scandal. ABC cancelled Roseanne Barr’s show because of a racist Tweet about Valerie Jarret. Ms. Barr blamed Ambien. Ms. Jarrett blamed President Trump. Meghan Markle married her Prince.

Speaking at a tech conference, President Obama said, “I didn’t have scandals, which seems like it shouldn’t be something to brag about.” Has he forgotten Lois Lerner at the IRS, targeting conservatives, or letting Nakoula Basseley Nakoula take the fall for the Benghazi attack that caused the death of Ambassador Chris Stevens?  Does he no longer remember Uranium One or ‘Fast and Furious?’ Ireland voted to allow women to have abortions in the first twelve weeks of pregnancy. While I agree that women should have control over their bodies, there was something unseemly about young women gloating over receiving permission to take a life.  What about personal responsibility? A male student in an Indiana high school opened fire before being tackled by seventh-grade science teacher Jason Seaman. Mr. Seaman was wounded, as was one other student. But his action prevented more casualties.

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In sports, “Justify” won the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, both on sloppy tracks. He will head to New York for the Belmont Stakes and a chance at the Triple Crown. The Golden Knights (Las Vegas) and the Capitals (Washington) will play for the Stanley Cup, and the NBA Championship will pit the Golden State Warriors (Oakland) against the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Death took Tom Wolfe, best known for his novel that captured the ‘80s, The Bonfire of the Vanities. He died at 88. Philip Roth – author of Goodbye Columbusand Portnoy’s Complaint– died at 85. Professor Bernard Lewis, one of the great scholars of Islam, died at 101. Richard Pipes, the leading intellectual opponent of détente and an escapee from Poland in 1946, died at 94. Alan Bean, the fourth man to walk on the moon died at 86. And I lost a good friend, former classmate of my wife and former Lieutenant Governor of Connecticut, Eunice Groark. Eunice was 80.

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We approach the midpoint of the year and the year’s longest day. Like all months, it will bring good news and bad, the expected and the unexpected. Let us hope that wisdom prevails, that respect dispels disdain and crudity makes way for comity. Above all, I hope the month brings peace and good health.

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[1]I wrote that Halper was a spy; that is an opinion; however, one based on extensive reading and strong belief.

"The Month That Was - April 2018"

Sydney M. Williams

swtotd.blogspot.com

“The Month That Was – April 2018”

May 1, 2018

“A gush of bird-song, a patter of dew; a cloud and a rainbow’s warning,

Suddenly sunshine and perfect blue – an April day in the morning.”

                                                                                                Harriet Prescott Spofford (1835-1921)

American writer, poet

When in Rome, as the saying goes, do as Romans. Caroline and I spent a few days in Rome during the middle of the month, and one thing Romans don’t do is read a lot of English-language newspapers. I was, however, able to read the New York Times International Editionmost days, but no doubt missed some of the news. For that I apologize.

“…suddenly sunshine and perfect blue…” After a cold and wet April, some sunshine appeared in the past week, at least here in the northeast. As well, the month provided signs of optimism – perhaps only visible to those of a cheerful disposition. And, this despite on-going concerns: the Islamization of European nations like Belgium and France; the threat to liberty that comes from an expanding, unaccountable European government in Brussel; the risk of protectionism; the confluence of expanding government debt and rising interest rates; and the threat to democracy from those who persist in using all means possible – including nasty innuendos and circumventing civil liberties – to end, or at least stymie, the Trump Presidency.

Kim Jung-un, in preparation for a June summit with President Trump (and I suspect under orders from Beijing), agreed to suspend nuclear and missile tests and shut down the site of the last half dozen tests under Mount Mantap – a location many scientists suspect is in danger of collapse. Mr. Kim crossed the border into South Korea – the first North Korean leader to do so since 1953 – to meet with President Moon Jae-in. Also, leaders of the world’s largest countries met: India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and China’s President Xi Jinping. After 59 years of rule, the last Castro left office, though it is uncertain that Miguel Diaz-Canel will serve the people any better. Jobless claims fell during the month. Unemployment is at 4.1% and work-force participation is rising. After years of stagnation, there was a modest increase in hourly earnings of 0.3%. Even the stock market, following two months of declines, rose modestly. Following publication of Steven Pinker’s book Enlightenment Now, op-eds appeared by Jonah Goldberg in National Reviewand Daniel Finkelstein of The London Timesnoting what every student of history should know: The world has never been richer, healthier, more democratic or fairer – a consequence of the Enlightenment: western values, self-determination, democracy, rule of law, market-driven economies, humanism, reason and science. Something to keep in mind, when we find ourselves in a funk.

In a Nashville Waffle House, James Shaw pushed back against what has become a social norm of non-interference: where fear of offending allows bad people to do harm, where universities bow to students’ unreasonable demands, and where children freely disobey parents and teachers without consequence. Mr. Shaw rushed the shooter Travis Reinking, preventing him from killing more than he had. Individuals across the political spectrum praised him, as they did Barbara Bush, suggesting that traditional values do still abound. Mrs. Bush, the wife on one President and the mother of another, was a woman of high moral character who put her family above all else. She did not have to join #MeToo to justify her independence and sense of self. Had she been born at a different time, she might have become a chief executive, but she never regretted her role. Like Mr. Shaw has become, she was an inspiration to millions of Americans, who struggle to find a moral compass in the mishmash of today’s multicultural morass.

In Hungary, Prime Minister Victor Orban won a third term, gaining a two-thirds parliamentary majority. He is a concern to Brussels, who fear right-wing authoritarians rising in eastern European nations like Poland, Romania and Slovakia. It is true that these countries are governed by nationalists and that they are net monetary beneficiaries of the EU’s largesse, but they are also subject to laws made in Brussels over which they have little sway, including those that control immigration. Perhaps today’s nationalism is but a backlash against an intrusive EU? Self-examination would be useful for bureaucrats in Brussels. As well, there has been a rise in anti-Semitism throughout the EU, but especially in western Europe. This is not a re-birth of Nazism and Fascism; it is the Middle East come to Europe. France today has twelve times as many Muslims as Jews. Germany has thirty-five times more Muslims than Jews. 

Before he was confirmed as Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo traveled to North Korea to prepare for the proposed meeting – possibly in June – between Mr. Trump and Kim Jong-un. Joined by Great Britain and France, the United States struck chemical facilities in Syria, in retaliation for a gas attack President Assad made on his own people. When red lines are crossed, push-back is critical. Emmanuel Macron visited Washington. Mr. Trump and the first lady hosted the French President and his wife at Mount Vernon. The next evening, they were given a state dinner, the first of Mr. Trump’s Presidency. M. Macron’s purpose was to dissuade Mr. Trump from walking away from the Iran deal and urging him not to abandon the Paris Agreement. Instead, he suggested both could (and should) be improved. As to whether his goals were achieved remains unknown at this point, but good feelings between the two leaders were obvious. Angela Merkel, a lame-duck in Germany, arrived a day later with the same message. Earlier in the month, to little fanfare or press coverage, Japan’s President Shinzo Abe visited Mr. Trump at his home in Palm Beach.

While the Left claims that Mr. Trump has abandoned global responsibilities and retreated behind borders, his actions suggest otherwise. The truth is that he has asked more of those with whom we share values – denied the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the hands of authoritarian and terrorist nations; created a coalition of Arab military forces to replace (some) U.S. forces in Syria and Iraq; increased the contributions from European nations to NATO, as Putin flexes his muscles in Ukraine, the Middle East and the Baltic States, and got Japan to recognize its responsibility to help defend Asian seas against a resurgent China.

A caravan of Honduran refugees – possibly including gang members of Barrio 18 and/or MS 13 – crossed Mexico and arrived in Tijuana, which abuts San Diego. President Trump, following in the footsteps of his two predecessors, sent troops to the border; though California’s Governor Jerry Brown, taking a leaf from the Confederacy, wants to declare his state a sanctuary – independent of U.S. federal law. Nicaragua, just south of Honduras and led by Leftist Daniel Ortega, is, like Venezuela, disintegrating into social and economic chaos. Violent protests broke out when the state approved a resolution that would increase contributions by workers and employers into the Nicaraguan Institute for Social Security, while reducing payouts by five percent. Center-left candidate Carlos Alvarado won Costa Rica’s presidential election.

Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan announced his retirement from the Congress, something more members of Congress should consider. After a series of dubious (and vile) accusations, Dr. Ronnie Jackson withdrew his name as nominee to head the VA. Bob Mueller said Mr. Trump was not a target. However, the DNC, wanting to ensure the investigation remains on the front pages and adding new meaning to legal frivolity, filed a lawsuit against the Russians and the Trump campaign. Scott Pruitt, EPA chief who through deregulatory decisions has played a major role in speeded-up GDP growth, became a target of an ethically-challenged Left. Teachers in Kentucky and Oklahoma, following the lead of West Virginia, protested cuts to pay, benefits and school funding. The real problem is growth granted unions and a lack of fiscal stewardship on the part of legislators. Many teachers are underpaid and are consigned to over-crowded classrooms. But public-school enrollments are lower than twenty-five years ago, yet the number of administrators has increased. In the meantime, states’ debts are increasing, interest costs are rising, and budgets are unbalanced.

Preliminary first quarter GDP numbers were reported at plus 2.3% percent, slightly above the Conference Board’s estimate of 1.9 percent. The stock market, as measured by the DJIA, was up less than one percent. FANG stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google), which, over the past two months, had led markets lower, rose in April. Bond prices were lower, with the yield on the 10-Year exceeding 3% for the first time in four years. The question for consumers, investors, policy makers and business: Does this represent a hiccup in a continuing long slide in rates, or have bond markets turned? While no one knows for sure, my guess is that we are witnessing an extended topping in bond prices. Interest-rate moves are long cycles. Rates gradually rose from the end of World War II – passing through 5% in December 1965 – to reach a high on the 10-Year in September 1981 of 15.8 percent.  The low was 1.5%, in August 2016. The U.S. Dollar rose during the month. Bitcoin prices continued their volatile ways, rising 33% for the month. Incidentally (and amusingly) Bloomberg reported that two British economists, Richard Jackman of the LSE and Savvas Savouri of a London-based hedge fund, over a two-bottles-of-wine dinner concluded that the value of a Bitcoin was between $20.00 and $800,000.00 – naming their finding the Côtes du Rhône Theory.

Elsewhere, Finland announced they would halt their trial with “universal basic income,” something Socialist Bernie Sanders wants for the U.S. The Malaysian Prime Minister dissolved Parliament, paving way for a general election on May 9. The U.S. levied sanctions against three dozen Russian oligarchs and entities. At his annual Boao Forum for Asia, held on the southern Chinese island of Hainan, President Xi Jinping promoted openness, but attendees were unable to use Google, log on to Facebook or post to Twitter. The Soar Chapel, in the English farming community of Breton, now has one member, 85-year-old Evan Thomas Jones, who is determined not to let the doors close. A bus carrying members of Canada’s junior hockey team crashed, killing fifteen. In Toronto, ten people were killed, and fifteen injured, when a crazed individual drove his van down a crowded sidewalk. In the good news category, John McGeehan of the University of Portsmouth (England) reported in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciencesthat an enzyme had been discovered that breaks down and dissolves polyethylene terephthalate (PET) into its original chemical chains. PET is a common plastic, which pollutes the world’s oceans.

Bill Cosby was found guilty on three counts of sexual assault. The 80-year-old could spend the rest of his life in prison. “The Avengers: Infinity War,” which cost Disney $300 million to produce, set a global record its first weekend, taking in $630 million. Roseanne Barr, on the re-opening of her show “Roseanne,” told her audience: “Trump supporters are human.” The Left was incensed. The New York Times: “Roseanne just ends up normalizing Trump and his warped, harmful political ideologies.” James Comey, following other public officials who have used public service to garner private profits, released his memoir, with its officious and self-serving title, A Higher Loyalty. I am a reader but will never buy or read his book.

In basketball, Notre Dame won the women’s NCAA title, while Villanova won the men’s. American Patrick Reed won the Masters Tournament at Augusta.

Death claimed, as mentioned above, Barbara Bush, “the adult in the room,” as John Podhoretz wrote. Winnie Mandela died at 82, and Lois Wheeler Snow, wife of C.P. Snow, died at 97. Linda Brown, whose name became synonymous with desegregation died at 75. Olympic U.S. ski coach Bob Beattie died at 85. Two-year-old Alfie Evans, the center of a tug-of-war between his parents and the NHS, died at Alder Hey Children’s Hospital in Liverpool. And I lost a good friend, Harry Sedgwick, a classmate and associate of Robert Kennedy and remembered for his smile, love of people and twinkling eyes. He died at age 90.

We move on to May, the merry month whose first few days look to finally usher in Spring.  

"The Month That Was - March 2018"

Sydney M. Williams

swtotd.blogspot.com

“The Month That Was – March 2018”

April 1, 2018

“One swallow does not make a summer,

but one skein of geese, cleaving the murk of March thaw, is the Spring.”

                                                                                                Aldo Leopold (1887-1949)

                                                                                                American writer and conservationist

March came in like a lion and maintained its “Big Cat” status for most of the month – four Nor’ Easters here in Connecticut! Only in its last few days did the month begin to resemble a member of the ovine race, and then more of a ram than a lamb. The month saw persistent, unprecedented attacks on Mr. Trump, like Joe Biden who threatened to beat him up (imagine two septuagenarians going at it!); andJohn Brennan who alluded to Trump’s venality and moral turpitude (talk of the pot calling the kettle black!).And then there were the gale-force winds of a morally deficient porn star “Stormy” Daniels, a temptress, certainly, but more a squall than a tempest, in her claim of being defamed.

It was not only gusty weather and blustery verbiage from Washington that made the month roar like a lion. Wall Street’s bears, who had emerged from hibernation in February, continued their selling in March. Islamic terrorists persisted in the killing and maiming of civilians in Burkina Faso, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, Pakistan, India, Yemen, Niger, Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq, Egypt and France. Gun violence at home and deadly fires overseas found their way into the month.

Kim Jong-un, President of North Korea announced his desire to meet with President Trump. The President accepted the invitation. An hysterical Left expressed disbelief. How could the loud-mouthed braggart in the White House succeed where pin-striped savants from “Foggy Bottom” had failed? Should the meeting come off, it would be reminiscent of the anti-Communist Richard Nixon going to China in 1972. For Trump is a hard-liner when it comes to North Korea. He believes in negotiating from strength. Keep in mind, the ironic motto of the former Strategic Air Command (SAC): “Peace is Our Profession.” Mr. Kim met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, which was likely a command performance. It is stability in the Korean peninsula that the Chinese want, and the mercurial Mr. Kim’s antics have made them nervous. The mandarins in Beijing do not want a nuclearized Korean Peninsula. Two consequences of Mr. Kim’s parley with Mr. Xi: the announced visit of Kim Jong-un to South Korea and an overture made to Japan.

Elsewhere, in the Syrian city of East Ghouta, on the outskirts of Damascus, rebels were forced out after months of combatting Assad’s troops and their Russian allies. Over a thousand civilians have become casualties in fighting that is reminiscent of Aleppo. Nerve gas was responsible for the near-deaths of former Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia in the English city of Salisbury. Without doubt, Vladimir Putin was responsible, even though he denied Russian complicity. Great Britain expelled 23 Russian diplomats. President Trump ordered the Russian consulate in Seattle closed and told 60 Russian intelligence officers they had seven days to leave the U.S. By last Monday, more than 25 countries had acted in solidarity with Great Britain, in the largest collective expulsion of Russian intelligence officers in history. Russia retaliated, expelling diplomats and shuttering the U.S. consulate in St. Petersburg.

The autocratic Mr. Putin won re-election as President of Russia. Despite his authoritarian ways (or better yet, because of them), his margin of victory keeps increasing – this time with 77% of the vote. By the end of this term (2024) he will have served as the undisputed leader of Russia longer than any man since Stalin. The Italian election was a triumph for nationalist populism, with the Five Star Movement receiving 30% of the vote. They, with the Northern League and a handful of nationalist/xenophobic parties, will control 55% of the seats in the Chamber of Deputies. The big losers were center-left and center-right parties, indicating unhappiness with Brussels and a failure of centrists to deal with the economic and immigration crises facing their country. Egypt’s election was marred by a car-bomb explosion in Alexandria, when two policemen were killed in an attempt to assassinate security chief General Mostafa el-Nemr. In a feigned democratic vote, President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi won re-election with more than 90% of the vote. Facing impeachment, Peru’s President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski resigned, elevating Vice President Martin Vizcarra.

Deck chairs at the White House were rearranged. Rex Tillerson will be replaced at State with CIA Director Mike Pompeo; Larry Kudlow replaced Gary Cohn as head of the National Economic Council, and John Bolton displaced H.R. McMaster as National Security Director. Gina Haspel, Deputy Director of the CIA, will be nominated to assume the Director’s role. If approved by the Senate, she will become the first female head of that organization. In my opinion, Pompeo and Bolton have their moral compasses pointed in the right direction. Mr. Bolton, the “bête noire” of progressives, once expressed his opinion about treaties in the form of a question: “Does it solve the problem, or does it simply make the participants feel good?” Confronting Iran and going in to discussions with North Korea, the U.S., in my opinion, is best served by those who speak frankly and who believe that peace is best achieved through strength. The Roman military historian Vegetius once said (in Latin, not English): “If you want peace, prepare for war.” In terms of the economy, Mr. Kudlow has known the President for many years. He understands him, believes in free trade and is unafraid to disagree. Ms. Haspel stands accused of water-boarding, but she was abiding by rules in place at the time. David Shulkin was ousted as head of the Veteran’s Administration. As successor, President Trump will nominate White House Naval physician, Dr. Ronny Jackson.  

Deputy Director of the FBI Andrew McCabe, a man who has difficulty with the truth, was fired by Attorney General Jeff Sessions two days before he would have been eligible for an “enhanced” government pension, whatever that is. He was fired based on a report from the Office of Professional Responsibility, an FBI internal committee that makes such recommendations. The reason: he lied to investigators, claiming to be “confused and distracted,” regarding the investigation into Hillary Clinton and the Clinton Foundation. A disingenuous Mr. McCabe blamed his dismissal on President Trump – that he had been “singled out” after “unrelenting” personal attacks by the President. Advocating for Democrats, protecting their hides and looking for scapegoats is the principal activity of too many senior bureaucrats in Washington. Too often, those like Mr. McCabe – think of Lois Lerner – have escaped responsibility for nefarious acts.

The month had its share of violence. In a Maryland school, seventeen-year-old high school student Austin Rollins, armed with a hand gun, shot and killed sixteen-year-old Jaelynn Willey and wounded a fourteen-year old male student. When confronted by armed school resource officer Blaine Gaskill, the shooter turned the gun on himself. In Austin, Texas the FBI and local police caught up with Mark Conditt who had mailed five packages that exploded, killing two and wounding one. He blew himself up as officers approached his car.  Three women hostages were killed at a California veteran’s facility, after a day-long siege, along with the gunman, thirty-six-year-old Albert Wong.

March for Our Lives was held in Washington, D.C. with rallies in cities around the country. Organizers claimed that 800,000 showed up in Washington to protest guns, which would make it the largest rally in the country’s history. The demonstration centered around students from Parkland, Florida where seventeen students were slain at the Marjory Stoneman Douglas high school on Valentine’s Day. The rally show-cased the power of youth, only marred by celebrities seeking publicity and politicians trolling for votes.

In economic and financial news, Congress passed, and the President signed, a $1.3 trillion spending bill, to take the government through the balance of its fiscal year. That’s a lot of money the country doesn’t have. “Grant’s Interest Rate Observer” reported that net borrowing in fiscal 2018 will be $955 billion and $1.083 trillion in fiscal 2019. Keep in mind, debt is increasing as interest costs are rising. This will become a ‘catch-22’ event, if not next year, at some point. The Federal Reserve raised the Fed Funds rate another twenty-five basis points, to 1.75% – still a quarter point below where it was in the third quarter of 2008. (Incredibly, the Federal Reserve kept Fed Funds in a range of zero to 25 basis points for twenty-six quarters!) They suggested there will be another two or three additional increases this year. The President spoke of placing tariffs on steel and aluminum, but later exempted all participants except for China, showing once again that it is not what Mr. Trump says that is important, but what he does. Sanctions were increased on North Korea ahead of the expected May meeting. Congress rolled back bank regulation on small banks, which have been pressured by mountains of regulation. Despite concerns ten years ago, big banks have become even bigger. Assets at the four largest banks, as a percent of national GDP, have risen from 43% in 2008 to 47% now, while small businesses have been hurt, as small and mid-size banks were unwilling, or unable, to lend. Household net worth rose to $98.4 trillion, a record. Broadcom’s bid for Qualcomm was delayed pending issues of national security. Stocks fell for the second consecutive month, down 3.7%, as measured by the DJIA. Treasury bonds rose in price and the price of Bitcoin declined 30 percent.

An Islamic attack in the small town of Trèbes, France killed five, but created a hero in Arnaud Beltrame who swapped himself for a female hostage and died as a result. Former Catalan leader Carlos Puigdemont was detained in Germany on an international arrest warrant after crossing the border from Denmark. Malala Yousafzai, who received the Nobel Peace prize in 2014, returned to Pakistan (under heavy security) for the first time since being shot in 2012 by Islamic militants. Her crime: championing education for girls. Seven U.S. soldiers died in a helicopter crash in Iraq. Sixty-four people, including 41 children, were killed in a mall fire in the Siberian city of Kemerovo. A fire in a prison in Venezuela caused the death of 68 inmates. Hillary Clinton, on her “explaining” tour, spoke in Mumbai where she referred to the 63 million people who voted for Mr. Trump as dupes, racists, misogynists and/or stupid. (I guess I know where I stand!) Qantas Airways made a “giant leap forward in long-haul travel,” as the New York Timesput it, with a non-stop, seventeen-hour flight from Sydney, Australia to London.

Cambridge Analytica was called out for providing data on 50 million Facebook users to Donald Trump’s 2016 Presidential campaign. (Of course, when the Obama campaign used similar methods in 2012 it was considered smart politics.) Consequently, Mark Zuckerberg has been asked to appear before Congress. Facebook and other tech companies may find themselves subject to more intense regulation. (I will have more say on this subject in a future TOTD.) Democrat Conor Lamb won the special election in Pennsylvania’s 18^thDistrict, a traditionally Republican district, but one that is being gerrymandered out of existence. The hypocritical Senator from Massachusetts Elizabeth Warren told Mike Mulvaney, newly appointed head of the CFPB (Consumer Finance Protection Bureau) that she would give him “one last chance” to answer questions about his role at the bureau. In September 2010, Senator Warren was appointed by President Obama to establish the agency, something she had proposed three years earlier while a professor at Harvard Law School. The agency, as designed by Ms. Warren, is independent of Congress and receives its funding from the Federal Reserve, a condition she apparently now regrets or has forgotten.

Tenured Professor Amy Wax of the University of Pennsylvania Law School was dismissed from teaching a required course to first year law students, because her opinions were at odds with those of the administration and some students, students who are supposed to be there to learn, not instruct. It was announced that Netflix is in discussions with former President Obama to produce a series of “high-profile shows” that will, according to the New York Times, “provide him a global platform after his departure from the White House.” Whatever happened to the standard set by George Washington, and followed by most ex-Presidents – with the notable exception of Bill Clinton – to disappear from the limelight after they leave the Presidency? “The Shape of Water” won best picture at the Academy Awards. The story involves a young woman having sex with a sea monster, which says a lot about our culture. As an example of mindless political correctness, Mount Holyoke, an all-women’s college in Massachusetts, is asking professors and others to no longer refer to their students as women. A case before the Supreme Court, “National Institute of Family and Life advocates v. Becerra” is about compelling pro-life pregnancy centers to provide free information about abortions. 

“March madness” crept into April, when Notre Dame will play Mississippi State for the women’s NCAA title, while Michigan will play Villanova for the men’s. Baseball’s opening day came at the end of the month, with 28 of the 30 major league teams in play. The newly-signed Yankee Giancarlo Stanton hit two homeruns! In Alaska, Joar Ulsom of Norway won the 1000-mile Iditarod race, from Anchorage to Nome in nine days, thirteen hours and one minute…and sixteen exhausted dogs.

Death claimed Peter G. Peterson (91) who went from the chairmanship of Bell and Howell at age 36, to White House assistant, to the chairmanship of Lehman Brothers, back to the White House, to chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and chairman of the Council on Foreign Relations, and finally to the Peterson Institute for International Economics. His concern was Democrats habit of over spending and Republicans excessive use of tax cuts. Death took Stephen Hawking, the brilliant theoretical physicist who was Director of Research at the Centre for Theoretical Cosmology at the University of Cambridge, and the author of A Brief History of Time. He had an early-onset of a rare motor neuron disease, which gradually paralyzed him over many decades. He once offered two pieces of advice to the young: “One, remember to look up at the stars, not down at your feet. Two, never give up work. Work gives you meaning and purpose and life is empty without it.” Professor Hawing died at 76. Linda Brown also died at 76. Her name will forever be associated with the landmark 1954 Supreme Court racial segregation case, Brown v. Board of Education. Ms. Brown was nine years old when she was barred from attending the all-white public Summer school, a few blocks from her home in Topeka Kansas. “I didn’t comprehend color. I only knew I wanted to go to Summer,” she later explained. Her death is a reminder that progress, while sometimes painfully slow, does march on. Rusty Staub, the beloved Mets icon, died on baseball’s opening day, at 73.

We move on to April, the month when taxes come due, but also a month of firsts: when turtles first appear, when song-birds first return to their summer homes, when lilacs first bloom and the month when lawns first have their seasonal haircuts. It is also the month my wife and I celebrate 54 years of marriage.