"The Month That Was - April 2018"

Sydney M. Williams

swtotd.blogspot.com

“The Month That Was – April 2018”

May 1, 2018

“A gush of bird-song, a patter of dew; a cloud and a rainbow’s warning,

Suddenly sunshine and perfect blue – an April day in the morning.”

                                                                                                Harriet Prescott Spofford (1835-1921)

American writer, poet

When in Rome, as the saying goes, do as Romans. Caroline and I spent a few days in Rome during the middle of the month, and one thing Romans don’t do is read a lot of English-language newspapers. I was, however, able to read the New York Times International Editionmost days, but no doubt missed some of the news. For that I apologize.

“…suddenly sunshine and perfect blue…” After a cold and wet April, some sunshine appeared in the past week, at least here in the northeast. As well, the month provided signs of optimism – perhaps only visible to those of a cheerful disposition. And, this despite on-going concerns: the Islamization of European nations like Belgium and France; the threat to liberty that comes from an expanding, unaccountable European government in Brussel; the risk of protectionism; the confluence of expanding government debt and rising interest rates; and the threat to democracy from those who persist in using all means possible – including nasty innuendos and circumventing civil liberties – to end, or at least stymie, the Trump Presidency.

Kim Jung-un, in preparation for a June summit with President Trump (and I suspect under orders from Beijing), agreed to suspend nuclear and missile tests and shut down the site of the last half dozen tests under Mount Mantap – a location many scientists suspect is in danger of collapse. Mr. Kim crossed the border into South Korea – the first North Korean leader to do so since 1953 – to meet with President Moon Jae-in. Also, leaders of the world’s largest countries met: India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and China’s President Xi Jinping. After 59 years of rule, the last Castro left office, though it is uncertain that Miguel Diaz-Canel will serve the people any better. Jobless claims fell during the month. Unemployment is at 4.1% and work-force participation is rising. After years of stagnation, there was a modest increase in hourly earnings of 0.3%. Even the stock market, following two months of declines, rose modestly. Following publication of Steven Pinker’s book Enlightenment Now, op-eds appeared by Jonah Goldberg in National Reviewand Daniel Finkelstein of The London Timesnoting what every student of history should know: The world has never been richer, healthier, more democratic or fairer – a consequence of the Enlightenment: western values, self-determination, democracy, rule of law, market-driven economies, humanism, reason and science. Something to keep in mind, when we find ourselves in a funk.

In a Nashville Waffle House, James Shaw pushed back against what has become a social norm of non-interference: where fear of offending allows bad people to do harm, where universities bow to students’ unreasonable demands, and where children freely disobey parents and teachers without consequence. Mr. Shaw rushed the shooter Travis Reinking, preventing him from killing more than he had. Individuals across the political spectrum praised him, as they did Barbara Bush, suggesting that traditional values do still abound. Mrs. Bush, the wife on one President and the mother of another, was a woman of high moral character who put her family above all else. She did not have to join #MeToo to justify her independence and sense of self. Had she been born at a different time, she might have become a chief executive, but she never regretted her role. Like Mr. Shaw has become, she was an inspiration to millions of Americans, who struggle to find a moral compass in the mishmash of today’s multicultural morass.

In Hungary, Prime Minister Victor Orban won a third term, gaining a two-thirds parliamentary majority. He is a concern to Brussels, who fear right-wing authoritarians rising in eastern European nations like Poland, Romania and Slovakia. It is true that these countries are governed by nationalists and that they are net monetary beneficiaries of the EU’s largesse, but they are also subject to laws made in Brussels over which they have little sway, including those that control immigration. Perhaps today’s nationalism is but a backlash against an intrusive EU? Self-examination would be useful for bureaucrats in Brussels. As well, there has been a rise in anti-Semitism throughout the EU, but especially in western Europe. This is not a re-birth of Nazism and Fascism; it is the Middle East come to Europe. France today has twelve times as many Muslims as Jews. Germany has thirty-five times more Muslims than Jews. 

Before he was confirmed as Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo traveled to North Korea to prepare for the proposed meeting – possibly in June – between Mr. Trump and Kim Jong-un. Joined by Great Britain and France, the United States struck chemical facilities in Syria, in retaliation for a gas attack President Assad made on his own people. When red lines are crossed, push-back is critical. Emmanuel Macron visited Washington. Mr. Trump and the first lady hosted the French President and his wife at Mount Vernon. The next evening, they were given a state dinner, the first of Mr. Trump’s Presidency. M. Macron’s purpose was to dissuade Mr. Trump from walking away from the Iran deal and urging him not to abandon the Paris Agreement. Instead, he suggested both could (and should) be improved. As to whether his goals were achieved remains unknown at this point, but good feelings between the two leaders were obvious. Angela Merkel, a lame-duck in Germany, arrived a day later with the same message. Earlier in the month, to little fanfare or press coverage, Japan’s President Shinzo Abe visited Mr. Trump at his home in Palm Beach.

While the Left claims that Mr. Trump has abandoned global responsibilities and retreated behind borders, his actions suggest otherwise. The truth is that he has asked more of those with whom we share values – denied the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the hands of authoritarian and terrorist nations; created a coalition of Arab military forces to replace (some) U.S. forces in Syria and Iraq; increased the contributions from European nations to NATO, as Putin flexes his muscles in Ukraine, the Middle East and the Baltic States, and got Japan to recognize its responsibility to help defend Asian seas against a resurgent China.

A caravan of Honduran refugees – possibly including gang members of Barrio 18 and/or MS 13 – crossed Mexico and arrived in Tijuana, which abuts San Diego. President Trump, following in the footsteps of his two predecessors, sent troops to the border; though California’s Governor Jerry Brown, taking a leaf from the Confederacy, wants to declare his state a sanctuary – independent of U.S. federal law. Nicaragua, just south of Honduras and led by Leftist Daniel Ortega, is, like Venezuela, disintegrating into social and economic chaos. Violent protests broke out when the state approved a resolution that would increase contributions by workers and employers into the Nicaraguan Institute for Social Security, while reducing payouts by five percent. Center-left candidate Carlos Alvarado won Costa Rica’s presidential election.

Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan announced his retirement from the Congress, something more members of Congress should consider. After a series of dubious (and vile) accusations, Dr. Ronnie Jackson withdrew his name as nominee to head the VA. Bob Mueller said Mr. Trump was not a target. However, the DNC, wanting to ensure the investigation remains on the front pages and adding new meaning to legal frivolity, filed a lawsuit against the Russians and the Trump campaign. Scott Pruitt, EPA chief who through deregulatory decisions has played a major role in speeded-up GDP growth, became a target of an ethically-challenged Left. Teachers in Kentucky and Oklahoma, following the lead of West Virginia, protested cuts to pay, benefits and school funding. The real problem is growth granted unions and a lack of fiscal stewardship on the part of legislators. Many teachers are underpaid and are consigned to over-crowded classrooms. But public-school enrollments are lower than twenty-five years ago, yet the number of administrators has increased. In the meantime, states’ debts are increasing, interest costs are rising, and budgets are unbalanced.

Preliminary first quarter GDP numbers were reported at plus 2.3% percent, slightly above the Conference Board’s estimate of 1.9 percent. The stock market, as measured by the DJIA, was up less than one percent. FANG stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google), which, over the past two months, had led markets lower, rose in April. Bond prices were lower, with the yield on the 10-Year exceeding 3% for the first time in four years. The question for consumers, investors, policy makers and business: Does this represent a hiccup in a continuing long slide in rates, or have bond markets turned? While no one knows for sure, my guess is that we are witnessing an extended topping in bond prices. Interest-rate moves are long cycles. Rates gradually rose from the end of World War II – passing through 5% in December 1965 – to reach a high on the 10-Year in September 1981 of 15.8 percent.  The low was 1.5%, in August 2016. The U.S. Dollar rose during the month. Bitcoin prices continued their volatile ways, rising 33% for the month. Incidentally (and amusingly) Bloomberg reported that two British economists, Richard Jackman of the LSE and Savvas Savouri of a London-based hedge fund, over a two-bottles-of-wine dinner concluded that the value of a Bitcoin was between $20.00 and $800,000.00 – naming their finding the Côtes du Rhône Theory.

Elsewhere, Finland announced they would halt their trial with “universal basic income,” something Socialist Bernie Sanders wants for the U.S. The Malaysian Prime Minister dissolved Parliament, paving way for a general election on May 9. The U.S. levied sanctions against three dozen Russian oligarchs and entities. At his annual Boao Forum for Asia, held on the southern Chinese island of Hainan, President Xi Jinping promoted openness, but attendees were unable to use Google, log on to Facebook or post to Twitter. The Soar Chapel, in the English farming community of Breton, now has one member, 85-year-old Evan Thomas Jones, who is determined not to let the doors close. A bus carrying members of Canada’s junior hockey team crashed, killing fifteen. In Toronto, ten people were killed, and fifteen injured, when a crazed individual drove his van down a crowded sidewalk. In the good news category, John McGeehan of the University of Portsmouth (England) reported in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciencesthat an enzyme had been discovered that breaks down and dissolves polyethylene terephthalate (PET) into its original chemical chains. PET is a common plastic, which pollutes the world’s oceans.

Bill Cosby was found guilty on three counts of sexual assault. The 80-year-old could spend the rest of his life in prison. “The Avengers: Infinity War,” which cost Disney $300 million to produce, set a global record its first weekend, taking in $630 million. Roseanne Barr, on the re-opening of her show “Roseanne,” told her audience: “Trump supporters are human.” The Left was incensed. The New York Times: “Roseanne just ends up normalizing Trump and his warped, harmful political ideologies.” James Comey, following other public officials who have used public service to garner private profits, released his memoir, with its officious and self-serving title, A Higher Loyalty. I am a reader but will never buy or read his book.

In basketball, Notre Dame won the women’s NCAA title, while Villanova won the men’s. American Patrick Reed won the Masters Tournament at Augusta.

Death claimed, as mentioned above, Barbara Bush, “the adult in the room,” as John Podhoretz wrote. Winnie Mandela died at 82, and Lois Wheeler Snow, wife of C.P. Snow, died at 97. Linda Brown, whose name became synonymous with desegregation died at 75. Olympic U.S. ski coach Bob Beattie died at 85. Two-year-old Alfie Evans, the center of a tug-of-war between his parents and the NHS, died at Alder Hey Children’s Hospital in Liverpool. And I lost a good friend, Harry Sedgwick, a classmate and associate of Robert Kennedy and remembered for his smile, love of people and twinkling eyes. He died at age 90.

We move on to May, the merry month whose first few days look to finally usher in Spring.  

"The Month That Was - December 2017"

Sydney M. Williams

swtotd.blogspot.com

The Month That Was

December 2017

January 1, 2018

“December’s wintery breath is already clouding the pond,

frosting the pane, obscuring summer’s memory.”

                                                                                                John J. Geddes

                                                                                                Author, “A Familiar Rain,” 2011

Seventy-six years ago, December 7, the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor, drawing the United States into a World War that had been raging, formally, for over two years, since Germany invaded Poland on September 2, 1939. But Nazi militancy had begun earlier. They had re-armed beyond what they were allowed under the Treaty of Versailles in the early ‘30s.  They had reoccupied the Rhineland in 1936 and they had annexed Austria in March 1938. A year later, in March 1939, Czechoslovakia fell. But the Allies did nothing. Eight years earlier, in September 1931, the Kwantung Army of the Empire of Japan invaded Manchuria. The world was aflame when Pearl Harbor was attacked. But a giant was stirred, and by war’s end over 60 million people (roughly three percent of the world’s population) were dead – approximately one killed every three seconds!

The most consequential news for the U.S. this past month, and perhaps for all of 2017, was the passage and signing of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. Its support was narrow and partisan, so has been compared to the Affordable Care Act of 2010. But, there is a significant difference. The ACA was designed to give government more resources, and greater control and power. This Bill gives government fewer resources, and less control and power. Its center piece is the reduction in the stated federal corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, which is slightly below the world average. The Bill allows businesses to expense capital expenditures (investments) when occurred. As well, companies are incentivized to re-patriate about $2.5 trillion held abroad. Tax rates for individuals were lowered, albeit modestly. The deductibility of state and local income taxes (SALT), which serves to mask aggressive spending on the part of many states, including California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey and my state of Connecticut, will be limited. That will negatively affect high-earners in those states. I would have preferred a simpler bill, and one, for instance, that acknowledges that “carried interest” is income. But this was the first time in a generation major tax reform has been achieved. The Bill should help boost economic growth.

As significant for economic growth has been the rolling back of regulations. For example, an apple farm in upstate New York, according to The New York Times, is subject to 5,000 rules. The repeal of Net Neutrality was a victory for free markets. The Act had nothing to do with neutrality and everything to do with regulation. It re-categorized broadband from Title I to Title II under the 1934 Communications Act, which meant carriers would be regulated as public utilities. Its elimination was a win for competition and the promise of 5G wireless, which may obviate the monopolies and duopolies of cable and fixed-line carriers.

Elsewhere domestically, the Mueller investigation suffered credibility issues, as anti-Trump bias was shown to be prevalent with a number of Mueller’s senior personnel: Bruce Ohr, Peter Strzok, Andrew Weissmann, Jeanie Rhee and Andrew McCabe. Increasingly, it looks like the collusion that should be investigated was that between the Clinton campaign and the FBI, rather than Russia and the Trump campaign. The Santa Barbara County wildfire in California became the State’s largest. Governor Jerry Brown said such fires are the “new normal!” Late in the month, the Northeast and Midwest of the U.S. were subjected to a prolonged arctic freeze. President Trump signed an Executive Order substantially reducing acreage in Utah’s Bears Ears National Monument, a tract of land so-named on December 28, 2016 by President Obama. Mr. Trump’s decision caused an uproar about separation of powers. However, National Monuments are created by Presidential edict, while National Parks are established by Congress. Doug Jones beat Ray Moore for the Alabama Senate seat vacated by Attorney General Jeff Sessions. Whether this proves good for the citizens of Alabama remains to be seen, but it was good for the nation and especially for the Republican Party. In a 7-2 decision, the Supreme Court backed the President’s travel ban from six predominantly Muslim nations. ISIS-inspired Akayed Ullah, a U.S. citizen and native of Bangladesh, was badly hurt when his suicide vest detonated prematurely on a Times Square subway platform. There were no other injuries.

President Trump announced that he would do what the three most recent Presidents promised but never did – move the U. S. Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, Israel’s capital. The anti-Israeli (and anti-US) bias of the UN was shown in a ceremonial vote condemning the U.S. decision, which passed 128-9, with 35 abstaining and 21 not participating. Voting with the majority were China, Russia, most EU nations, and such bulwarks of democracy as Cuba, North Korea, Syria, Iran and Venezuela. I am proud that Nikki Haley is our UN Ambassador. She was the first female governor of South Caroline, is the daughter of immigrants, and is a staunch defender of liberty. Guatemala announced it would move its embassy to Jerusalem. The Czech Republic and nine other countries are in discussions with Israel to do the same. An ISIS Caliphate in Syria is over, but in December over 400 people died in about 60 Islamic terrorist attacks.

A 2018 “red alert for the world” was issued by the Secretary General of the UN. Finance ministers from the five largest EU countries warned that the Republican tax proposal would flout international agreements. (They must fear a more competitive U.S.) Brussels dissed Poland’s judicial overhauls, triggering a never-used sanction procedure, a “nuclear option,” – the final stage of which would be the suspension of Poland’s voting rights within the EU. The dispute is over the appointment and removal of judges, with Warsaw claiming the need to purge judges appointed during the country’s Communist past, and Brussels arguing that doing so violates separation of powers. In a New York Times article last month, Liz Alderman wrote of how Europe’s thirst for cheap labor has fueled a boom in “disposable workers” – her words. EU rules allow citizens to work anywhere within the 28-nation bloc, but there are no requirements that contracts be written in a language understood by the employee, and there are no requirements that minimum wages be paid or that overtime matches that of the country in which they are working. (The EU has become less and less democratic. It serves its largest members, Germany and France, at the expense of its southern and eastern members. The Euro has provided Germany with a cheap currency, while giving southern and eastern European countries an expensive currency.)  In my opinion, Britain is wise to exit the Union.

During the month, President Trump made a major foreign policy speech, which Arthur Herman of the Hudson Policy Institute suggested may usher in a new era of global stability – something at odds with conventional thinking. Chile’s former president Sebastián Piñera defeated center-left candidate Alejandro Guillier who had been backed by the outgoing Leftist president Michelle Bachelet. The shift to the right saw the Ipsa stock index jump seven percent. Separatists won the majority of elections in Catalonia, indicating concerns with Madrid remain. In a replay of the failed 2009 Green Revolution, protests broke out in Iran, with twelve people killed, so far. Further sanctions were imposed on North Korea.

In financial markets, stocks rose modestly for the month, but provided the year with their best performance since 2013. The bull market is now nine years old. Nobody can predict its end. But, as one investment advisor recently wrote, “…be careful what you buy.” In the U.S., the value of IPO’s (initial public offerings) doubled in 2017, after 2016’s ten-year low. Volatility, measured by the DJIA rising or falling more than one and a half percent in a single session, fell to record low levels. In 2017, there were only two such days. To put that in perspective, 2016 had that level of volatility on nineteen days, and in 2008, at the height of the credit crisis, the DJIAs rose or fell by more than one and a half percent on a hundred days. A dangerous complacency? Perhaps, but consumer confidence is at a 17-year high (or just below, as it fell modestly in December) and unemployment is at a 17-year low. During the month, the Federal Reserve raised Fed Funds rates by 25 basis points to 1.5%, double what it was a year ago, with the consequence being a yield curve flattening. During the year, the yield on the Three-month rose from 0.46% to 1.39%, while the yield on the Ten-year fell from 2.48% to 2.43%. Bitcoins began the month at $9,872.15, reached $19,597.75 on December 17, and closed at $14,405.00. (Keep in mind, they began the year at $976.65.) Are they a fraud? I don’t know, but they have no intrinsic value. I don’t own any and would not. Goldman Sachs announced on December 7 that they would clear Bitcoin futures’ contracts, “for at least some clients.” A $69 billion CVS proposed merger with Aetna was announced, which will result in the latter’s CEO having a $500 million pay day! The Dakota Access Pipeline has increased oil production, and reduced oil-train traffic, a bane for Warren Buffett’s Burlington Northern, but a boon for the environment. A strong Holiday shopping season and a boost in November jobs suggest fourth quarter GDP growth will come in above 3%. If it does, it will be the strongest consecutive period of economic growth since 2007. Interest rates in Europe remain low: At the start of the month Portugal issued €1.3 billion of five-year, floating-rate notes with a yield of 1.1%. Given their reported consumer price inflation of 1.4%, the buyer is getting a negative return of minus 30 basis points, before taxes. Do we have any bridges for sale?

In other news, Russian election officials barred opposition leader Alexei Navalny from running in next year’s election. In Australia, Chan Han Choi, a native of South Korea, was arrested for brokering the sale of missiles and missile components to North Korea. Fifteen UN peacekeepers (all from Tanzania) were killed in the Democratic Republic of Congo by “militant extremists.” Playing God has consequences. Efforts to save the Sumatran tiger is negatively impacting the Sumatran elephant, and requiring the need for more protected forests on Indonesia’s largest island. Uber is the disruptive technology the establishment hates most. It is anti-union. The European Union’s highest court ruled that the company, which owns no cars, is a transportation company, not a technology platform, so subject to myriad rules and regulations.

A Gallup Poll showed millennials are growing skeptical toward capitalism and favorable toward socialism. A failure to check sources, along with a visceral hatred for President Trump, have given legitimacy to White House charges of “fake” news. According to a report in The New York Times (which excluded itself from any culpability) examples of fake news have been seen in stories published by CNN, ABC and “several news outlets, including Bloomberg and The Wall Street journal,” The Times also commented – oddly – that the tax bill risks “overheating” the economy. For the second year in a row, life expectancy in the U.S. fell. The drug overdose epidemic was blamed. An apartment building fire in the Bronx killed twelve. A daughter was born to a couple from an embryo frozen twenty-four years ago – the oldest to result in a live birth. And, sadly, twenty-four horses died of smoke inhalation in a barn fire in Simsbury, Connecticut.

Death appeared. The infamous Christine Keeler died at 75; corporate star from the 1980s William Agee at 79; M&T Bank chairman Bob Wilmers, who I knew slightly in the 1960s, at 83; Olympian Bill Steinkraus at 92; Author William Gass at 93; John Anderson, 1980 Presidential candidate, at 95, and King Michael of Romania at 96. Also dying in December was a good friend, John Willson, an expert on Theodore Roosevelt.

December ends with the Christmas season, the most joyous time of the year, even if many of us no longer celebrate its religious aspects with the fervor we once did. Nevertheless, we should not forget its origins, nor its enormous impact. Two thousand years after His birth, Jesus is celebrated by almost a third of the Earth’s population. His message was (and is) one of peace and love. He encourages generosity and fosters the relieving of suffering. But, we know that we (and it) are fallible, that envy, greed and disloyalty entice us. We know that Christian nations were, in part, responsible for the horrors of the last century’s two world wars. But we also know that it was Christian-Judeo nations who stood up to the evil of Nazism, Fascism and Communism. A steep price was paid, but ultimately the good guys won. As we leap into the New Year, I wish you the very best, that peace may reign and that we may voice our opinions without rancor or fear. And I thank you again for your readership.

"The Thucydides Trap - As It Applies to Europe"

Sydney M. Williams

swtotd.blogspot.com

Thought of the Day

October 16, 2017

“The Thucydides Trap – As It Applies to Europe”

“There is no week, nor day, nor hour when tyranny may not

enter our country, if the people lose their roughness and spirit of defiance.”

                                                                                                            Walt Whitman (1819-1892)

The Greek Historian Thucydides (460BC-395BC) wrote that the growth of Athens and the fear that caused in Sparta would lead inevitably to war. It did, the Peloponnesian Wars (431-404BC), which were ultimately won by Sparta. Graham Allison, Harvard professor of political science coined the term “Thucydides Trap,” otherwise known as the “security dilemma,” to describe the rise of a new power and the fear it instills in an established, dominant power – China and the United States. A clash, he argues, almost always ensues. Such phenomena are not limited to geo-politics. In physics, it would be an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object. And, all of us were once recalcitrant teen-agers, pushing back against resolute parents.

In his book Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’ Trap?, Professor Allison looks to history to provide lessons for managing “great power” rivalries that were resolved without full-blown war: the Spanish-Portuguese match-up in the 15^th Century, the rise of the U.S. in the 19^th Century against the British Empire, the more recent peaceful resolution of the Cold War, among others.

While a nuclear conflagration between great powers represents the world’s biggest risk, the desire for self-rule, for security is not limited to great powers.  Its consequences can be seen in the rise of nationalism, and the desire for sovereignty and respect, throughout many parts of the world – Scotland, Catalonia and Ukraine in Europe; the Kurds in the Middle East, and secessionists in the West African nations of Cameroon and Nigeria. It is in those areas where the unwary might be ensnared.

Each part of the world is unique, as is each group’s desire for independence. Regardless of the merits of each bid for independence, it is the causes that must be addressed. We can treat symptoms, and we can play the “blame” game, but cures require an understanding of causation.

In Africa, causes relate to centuries of colonization, along with the tribal nature of their indigenous people. Two countries on that continent are now experiencing separatist movements – Cameroon and Nigeria, both which became independent in the early 1960s. Cameroon, one of the oldest continuously populated parts of the world, had been occupied from the 15^th through the 19^th Centuries by Portuguese and Germans. After World War I, the French and English divided the country. It is the English-speaking regions that today want to split off. Nigeria, the largest country in Africa, in terms of population (and the 7^th largest in the world), was once part of the British Empire. The natives of Biafra, in the southeast of the country, want independence. Like most African nations, their borders were drawn by Europeans who cared more about mineral extraction and commodities produced, than the tribes that comprise their populations. (There are, for example, over 500 languages spoken in Nigeria.) A civil war in that region fifty years ago left a million dead. Nigerian forces have again been deployed to put down this new rebellion.

In the Middle East, the Kurds seek independence from four countries – Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria – where they comprise significant minorities. Apart from Turkey, which is what remains of the Ottoman Empire, these countries, as in Africa, had their borders drawn by European colonial powers after the First World War, with little regard for the people who had lived there for centuries.

But it is Europe that is the focus of this essay. Most secessionists rebel against out-of-touch elitists. Does Madrid stand aloof from Catalonians? Does Brussels respect the Flemish?  Is London concerned about the welfare of the Scots? Does Paris have the interest of the Corsicans? Most worrisome, has been a rising, entitled administrative state in Brussels that threatens the sovereignty of countries that have existed, in some cases, for over a thousand years. What, for example, does the EU Parliament know about Welch coal miners, Manchester cab drivers and London bankers? Why should laws that govern these businesses and the regulations by which they must abide be created in Brussels? Is not this taxation without representation?

Europe deserves our respect. It was the birthplace of the Enlightenment, which gave to the world civilization, democracy and free-market capitalism. It was in Europe where Christianity took hold. It was Europe, with a big assist from the United States, that stood up to Fascism and Nazism. But, it was also Europe that first appeased and then fell victim to the persuasion of Mussolini and Hitler. It was Europe, through colonization, that exploited much of what we now call the developing world. Europe’s industrialization depended on cheap raw materials from overseas. Luxuries, like tea, coffee, sugar and tobacco – grown in fields worked by slaves – came from those colonies. Armies were deployed to put down insurrections. With colonization came sanctimony and arrogance, traits that infect Europe’s leaders today. There is hypocrisy in the assumed moral and intellectual superiority expressed by Brussel’s bureaucrats toward any who challenge them. With globalists, the administrative state replaces local governments.

Governing is not easy. It is akin to herding cats. But, without it, anarchy reigns; with too much, autocracy rules. Good government permits freedom of speech, assembly and movement. It offers a basic education and the right to own property. It provides the rule of law. It allows individuals with disparate political leanings to live in harmony. The nation state is worth preserving, as Lincoln did in 1861. But not all nations are born equal. In the post-War period, many were subjected to Communist rule. Germany was divided. Those who were consigned to the East in 1945 fared poorly, as do Koreans today who live north of the 38^th Parallel. On the other hand, most of the fifteen or so countries that were given independence upon the collapse of the Soviet Union have fared well. Does anyone believe that the average Ukrainian would be better off governed from Moscow? Every separatist bid should be considered on its own merits. There is no “one-size-fits-all” in the realm of geopolitics.

Most Europeans want what all people want – freedom, peace and prosperity. The question: how can it best be achieved? Is a Europe united in government, defense, laws and currency required? Or is respect for one another’s sovereignty – governments, borders, laws, culture, human rights – a better answer? A forum for the free exchange of ideas should be available; trade should be fair and open. Nations’ tax systems and laws should not impede the flow of capital, nor should borders stem the tide of honorable, hard-working people.

The trap that bears Thucydides name is not limited to great powers. The world and its inhabitants are in constant flux. Nations rise and fall. Since 1990, there have been, according to one source, thirty-four new countries formed – in Europe, the Middle East, Africa and the Pacific. Since my birth, in January 1941, 157 of the 195 sovereign states have been born or had new forms of governments. Every new state poses risk for those that were there before.  But the “trap” also applies to smug administrators who, due to their claimed superior intelligence and morality, feel entitled to rule, like those in multi-national organizations, or in Brussels. What is the cause for revolts against authority. Bureaucrats should look in the mirror.