"The Month That Was - October 2017"

Sydney M. Williams

swtotd.blogspot.com

The Month That Was

“October 2017”

October 31, 2017

“O hushed October morning mild,

Begin the hours of this day slow,

Make the day seem to us less brief.”

                                                                                                “October”

                                                                                                A Boy’s Will,1915

                                                                                                Robert Frost (1874-1963)

October 24^th marked the 100^th anniversary of Lenin’s Bolsheviks’ seizure of power in Russia. The rise of Communism gave birth to the world’s deadliest ideology – far worse than Nazism and Fascism, in terms of the number of people subjected to imprisonment, terror and death. Yet does the world associate Communism with evil commensurate with its history? I think not. In the Soviet Union alone, subtracting the number of Soviet soldiers and citizens killed in World II, an estimated twenty million were killed by Stalin. About forty-five million were killed in China by Mao Zedong. Between seven and ten million Ukrainians died during the Soviet-inspired “Holodomor,” in 1932-33. Approximately two million Cambodians – almost a third of the population – died at the hands of the Khmer Rouge. Millions were killed in North Korea, Vietnam, Cuba, East Germany, Rumania, Bulgaria, Ethiopia and other places. Communism killed as many people as died in the two world wars of the last century. As Bruce Thornton, classicist and Hoover research fellow recently put it, its history is a “…road to utopia [that] runs over mountains of corpses.” Today, it is not Communism that concerns us, but its half-brother Socialism. Despite its failure in places like Venezuela and in Europe where unrestrained Muslim immigration has created segregated neighborhoods and increased government dependency, it has become popular in the U.S. among followers of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.

During the month, elections were held in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, South America, and a re-run, in Africa (Kenya). Elections in Austria and the Czech Republic moved both countries to the right, meaning people are still concerned about terrorism, immigration and economic growth. Sebastian Kurz will become, at age 31, Europe’s youngest leader, when he assumes the Chancellorship of Austria. In the Czech Republic, Andrei Babis, former finance minister, populist and billionaire businessman, won a “thumping” victory, as Prime Minister-designate. The Catalans declared independence, and Spain’s parliament granted Prime Minister Rajoy powers to enforce union. Catalonia has simmered a long time. In 2006, Madrid promised the region increased autonomy. Four years later – amidst recession and financial crisis – they reneged on that promise. This is a story of disillusionment with bureaucratic and distant administrative governments run by elites. While immigration was pivotal in Brexit, the bigger problem is politicians who are deaf to the people they represent and who are unaffected by the policies they promote. We are witnessing a backlash against hypocrisy, arrogance and authoritarianism, in Brussels, Madrid and other capitals.  

In Japan, Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party won its third landslide victory. Abe, an ally of the U.S. and a friend of President Trump, is an advocate for more defense spending. He benefitted from North Korea’s militant rhetoric and an improved economy. In Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif returned as Prime Minister and as head of the Pakistan Muslim League two months after being disqualified on charges of corruption. In Argentina, President Mauricio Macri’s Republican Proposal Party increased its seats in both the legislature and the senate, while former president Christina Kirchner’s Justicialist Party lost seats. A re-run of August’s race in Kenya was won again by current president Uhuru Kenyatta.

U.S.-backed Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces took back the Al-Omar oil fields – Syria’s most productive – from ISIS forces, fields that had been captured in 2014. Elsewhere, Islamic terrorists persisted in their work. Almost 400 people died in Somalia, when separate truck and car bombs exploded, the work of al-Shabaab militants. In Marseilles, two women were stabbed to death by a man shouting “Allahu Akbar.” The assailant was shot dead. At least seventeen died in Cameroon, in two provinces bordering Nigeria. In all, over 700 people died during the month at the hands of Islamic extremists. Good news came toward the end of the month, when 32-year-old Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salmon said his country would return to “moderate Islam that is open to all religions and to the world.” It should be remembered that fifteen of the nineteen hijackers on 9/11 were Saudi citizens.

A Chinese Communist Party’s recent meeting positioned China’s President Xi Jinping as “pre-eminent leader,” with added powers and no successor, something not seen since Mao Zedong. It ends a period of collective leadership. Following an illness that infected U.S. embassy personnel in Havana, fifteen Cuban diplomats were expelled from their embassy in Washington. The Iran nuclear deal was not re-certified by President Trump, as required every three months, but sent to Congress for ratification.

Fifty-eight people were killed and 489 wounded by a lone gunman in Las Vegas. Almost immediately, anti-gun politicians politicized the tragedy, ignoring the fact that it is the person pulling the trigger who is at fault, not the weapon. Nevertheless, a question: how was Stephen Paddock able to buy so many high-powered rifles legally in such a short period? Technology today is such that red flags should have been raised when he purchased the third, fourth through eighteenth assault rifle. Was he planning on arming a regiment? The internet should allow for a repository of gun-purchase information available to all legitimate gun dealers. General John Kelly’s sterling defense of Donald Trump’s call to a bereaved Gold Star widow was politicized by a callow member of Congress with no sense of dignity or respect. The condemnation of Harvey Weinstein’s despicable behavior toward women set off a deluge of accusations against other men, including a ridiculous accusation that 93-year-old, wheel chair-bound, ex-President George H.W. Bush misbehaved toward a young woman.

Russian interference in last year’s election became more complex. Robert Mueller indicted Paul Manafort, a former campaign chairman for Mr. Trump, and Manafort’s former business partner, Rick Gates. They were charged in a 12-point indictment, including conspiracy to commit money laundering. Also, it was disclosed that Hillary Clinton and the DNC paid $12.4 million to the Washington Law firm, Perkins Coie. The law firm then used the money to pay the Washington research firm Fusion GPS to hire discredited, retired British spy Christopher Steele. He, in turn, paid unknown and unidentified Russians to tell stories about Mr. Trump, in reckless disregard as to whether the stories were true or not. Specifically, who in the Clinton campaign and who at the DNC authorized those payments remains a mystery. Fusion GPS has refused to testify. The United States House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence began investigations into the 2013 purchase by Rosatom, a state-owned Russian uranium company (and a contributor to the Clinton Foundation) of Canadian-based Uranium One, which produces 20% of the U.S.’s uranium – a deal approved by the Obama Administration, when Hillary Clinton was Secretary of State.

A budget resolution was passed by both houses of Congress that allows a tax bill to be approved with a simple majority. That vote is expected by the end of the year. The Supreme Court began a new term with a full complement of nine justices. Issues will include the right of a baker to refuse to supply a wedding cake to same-sex couples and the right of a federal employee to refuse to pay union dues. In a speech at Harvard, Education Secretary Betsy DeVos spoke, amid catcalls, of how school choice for the poor and disadvantaged empowers families, creates room for healthy diversity and is consistent with historic aims of public education. Alan Dershowitz, Felix Frankfurter Professor of Law, Emeritus, at Harvard, explained that President Trump’s “calm before the storm” comment was a message to North Korea and Iran.

Despite Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, U.S. GDP grew at 3% in the third quarter, surprising most economists. While most markets were calm during the month, the Bitcoin price soared 40%. In October, Goldman Sachs reported they would trade the crypto-currency. But trading an instrument is not the same as recommending it. Volatility and liquidity are what traders want. October 19^th marked the 30^th anniversary of “Black Monday,” a non-event this year. Amazon asked states and municipalities to bid on a second headquarters. Warren Buffett, whom it is better to watch what he does than what he says, bought a controlling stake in Pilot J Travel Centers, the owner of truck stops – sellers of coffee, food and fuel. The market’s calm bewilders me, but tech stocks are on fire. Pay Pal’s market capitalization now exceeds that of American Express. The market capitalization of Apple is greater than the combined values of General Electric, IBM, Boeing, Disney and Dow/DuPont. The Senate voted relief to banks from class-action lawsuits, which have always been a boon to trial lawyers and meaningless for individual plaintiffs. Jerome Powell, a current Fed Governor, is expected to be named Fed Chairman.

In other news, an imperious EU Parliament asked British Prime Minister Theresa May to fire Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson. The U.S. (finally) dropped out of UNESCO, citing an anti-Israel bias. Four U.S. soldiers were killed in Niger, reputedly by ISIS. (American GIs serve in 150 countries.) Despite such weapons proliferating, the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons.  The Nobel Prize for literature was won by the Japanese-born, British author, Kazuo Ishiguro. NASA reported that signals reached Earth of two collapsed stars that smashed into one another 130 million years ago. Nigerian terrorist, Farouk Abdulmutallab, better known as the “underwear bomber” filed suit in the U.S., claiming his jail conditions are too tough.

Fires in Napa and Sonoma Counties, California, killed forty-two, destroyed 8,400 structures and created $1 billion in insured losses. A group of protestors supported by Antifa said they wanted to “deface” Columbus Day. Richard Thaler, a behavioral economist with the University of Chicago. won the Nobel Prize for economics. The Boy Scouts of America, which has seen membership drop 40% over the past 45 years, said they will now admit girls. A “hostile” take-over? The opioid crisis was declared a National Emergency by the President. Vietnam veteran and medic, Captain Gary Michael Rose was awarded the Congressional Medal of Honor, for bravery during a just-declassified operation in Laos, in September 1970. In an example of beautiful irony, the group behind the “Fearless Girl” statue on lower Broadway in New York agreed to pay $5 million, to settle claims by 305 women employees that their pay was unequal to men in similar positions. With fears of white supremacists on campuses and an absence of common sense, a Michigan State student misidentified a shoelace for a noose. Heritage High School in Wake Forest, North Carolina joined a chorus of politically-correct schools. They will no longer name a valedictorian, citing unhealthy competition among students. And “Lulu,” a young black lab, flunked the CIA’s explosive detection “puppy class,” indicating labs may be smarter than their reputation.

Antoine Domino, better known as “Fats,” died at age 89. His recordings of “Blueberry Hill” and “Ain’t It a Shame” are among my favorites. Succumbing at the same age was Robert Guillaume, unforgettable to millions as “Benson.” And, I lost a good friend, amateur actor, author, former Wall Street Journal editor and fellow Drones Club member, Ned Crabb.

We move on to November, the month in which we celebrate the bounty of our harvests, and during which we prepare for joyful, though commerce-fixated, holidays.

           

"The Thucydides Trap - As It Applies to Europe"

Sydney M. Williams

swtotd.blogspot.com

Thought of the Day

October 16, 2017

“The Thucydides Trap – As It Applies to Europe”

“There is no week, nor day, nor hour when tyranny may not

enter our country, if the people lose their roughness and spirit of defiance.”

                                                                                                            Walt Whitman (1819-1892)

The Greek Historian Thucydides (460BC-395BC) wrote that the growth of Athens and the fear that caused in Sparta would lead inevitably to war. It did, the Peloponnesian Wars (431-404BC), which were ultimately won by Sparta. Graham Allison, Harvard professor of political science coined the term “Thucydides Trap,” otherwise known as the “security dilemma,” to describe the rise of a new power and the fear it instills in an established, dominant power – China and the United States. A clash, he argues, almost always ensues. Such phenomena are not limited to geo-politics. In physics, it would be an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object. And, all of us were once recalcitrant teen-agers, pushing back against resolute parents.

In his book Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’ Trap?, Professor Allison looks to history to provide lessons for managing “great power” rivalries that were resolved without full-blown war: the Spanish-Portuguese match-up in the 15^th Century, the rise of the U.S. in the 19^th Century against the British Empire, the more recent peaceful resolution of the Cold War, among others.

While a nuclear conflagration between great powers represents the world’s biggest risk, the desire for self-rule, for security is not limited to great powers.  Its consequences can be seen in the rise of nationalism, and the desire for sovereignty and respect, throughout many parts of the world – Scotland, Catalonia and Ukraine in Europe; the Kurds in the Middle East, and secessionists in the West African nations of Cameroon and Nigeria. It is in those areas where the unwary might be ensnared.

Each part of the world is unique, as is each group’s desire for independence. Regardless of the merits of each bid for independence, it is the causes that must be addressed. We can treat symptoms, and we can play the “blame” game, but cures require an understanding of causation.

In Africa, causes relate to centuries of colonization, along with the tribal nature of their indigenous people. Two countries on that continent are now experiencing separatist movements – Cameroon and Nigeria, both which became independent in the early 1960s. Cameroon, one of the oldest continuously populated parts of the world, had been occupied from the 15^th through the 19^th Centuries by Portuguese and Germans. After World War I, the French and English divided the country. It is the English-speaking regions that today want to split off. Nigeria, the largest country in Africa, in terms of population (and the 7^th largest in the world), was once part of the British Empire. The natives of Biafra, in the southeast of the country, want independence. Like most African nations, their borders were drawn by Europeans who cared more about mineral extraction and commodities produced, than the tribes that comprise their populations. (There are, for example, over 500 languages spoken in Nigeria.) A civil war in that region fifty years ago left a million dead. Nigerian forces have again been deployed to put down this new rebellion.

In the Middle East, the Kurds seek independence from four countries – Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria – where they comprise significant minorities. Apart from Turkey, which is what remains of the Ottoman Empire, these countries, as in Africa, had their borders drawn by European colonial powers after the First World War, with little regard for the people who had lived there for centuries.

But it is Europe that is the focus of this essay. Most secessionists rebel against out-of-touch elitists. Does Madrid stand aloof from Catalonians? Does Brussels respect the Flemish?  Is London concerned about the welfare of the Scots? Does Paris have the interest of the Corsicans? Most worrisome, has been a rising, entitled administrative state in Brussels that threatens the sovereignty of countries that have existed, in some cases, for over a thousand years. What, for example, does the EU Parliament know about Welch coal miners, Manchester cab drivers and London bankers? Why should laws that govern these businesses and the regulations by which they must abide be created in Brussels? Is not this taxation without representation?

Europe deserves our respect. It was the birthplace of the Enlightenment, which gave to the world civilization, democracy and free-market capitalism. It was in Europe where Christianity took hold. It was Europe, with a big assist from the United States, that stood up to Fascism and Nazism. But, it was also Europe that first appeased and then fell victim to the persuasion of Mussolini and Hitler. It was Europe, through colonization, that exploited much of what we now call the developing world. Europe’s industrialization depended on cheap raw materials from overseas. Luxuries, like tea, coffee, sugar and tobacco – grown in fields worked by slaves – came from those colonies. Armies were deployed to put down insurrections. With colonization came sanctimony and arrogance, traits that infect Europe’s leaders today. There is hypocrisy in the assumed moral and intellectual superiority expressed by Brussel’s bureaucrats toward any who challenge them. With globalists, the administrative state replaces local governments.

Governing is not easy. It is akin to herding cats. But, without it, anarchy reigns; with too much, autocracy rules. Good government permits freedom of speech, assembly and movement. It offers a basic education and the right to own property. It provides the rule of law. It allows individuals with disparate political leanings to live in harmony. The nation state is worth preserving, as Lincoln did in 1861. But not all nations are born equal. In the post-War period, many were subjected to Communist rule. Germany was divided. Those who were consigned to the East in 1945 fared poorly, as do Koreans today who live north of the 38^th Parallel. On the other hand, most of the fifteen or so countries that were given independence upon the collapse of the Soviet Union have fared well. Does anyone believe that the average Ukrainian would be better off governed from Moscow? Every separatist bid should be considered on its own merits. There is no “one-size-fits-all” in the realm of geopolitics.

Most Europeans want what all people want – freedom, peace and prosperity. The question: how can it best be achieved? Is a Europe united in government, defense, laws and currency required? Or is respect for one another’s sovereignty – governments, borders, laws, culture, human rights – a better answer? A forum for the free exchange of ideas should be available; trade should be fair and open. Nations’ tax systems and laws should not impede the flow of capital, nor should borders stem the tide of honorable, hard-working people.

The trap that bears Thucydides name is not limited to great powers. The world and its inhabitants are in constant flux. Nations rise and fall. Since 1990, there have been, according to one source, thirty-four new countries formed – in Europe, the Middle East, Africa and the Pacific. Since my birth, in January 1941, 157 of the 195 sovereign states have been born or had new forms of governments. Every new state poses risk for those that were there before.  But the “trap” also applies to smug administrators who, due to their claimed superior intelligence and morality, feel entitled to rule, like those in multi-national organizations, or in Brussels. What is the cause for revolts against authority. Bureaucrats should look in the mirror.