"The Month That Was - November 2017"

Sydney M. Williams

swtotd.blogspot.com

The Month That Was

“November 2017”

December 1, 2017

“November’s sky is chill and drear;

November’s leaf is red and sear.”

                                                                                                Sir Walter Scott (1771-1832)

                                                                                                “Ettrick Forest in November,” 1808

November is a month for memories. We think of the Pilgrims who celebrated their first year in the New World, in 1621 – and try to make sense of the hardships they endured, all for the cause of freedom to worship as they chose. We give thanks they succeeded. On the 11^th of November, we remember the 18 million soldiers and civilians who died in World War I – a day commemorated as Armistice, Poppy, Remembrance and Veterans Day. Sadly, it was a war that did not “end all wars,” but served as prelude to a bigger conflict. But, in the end, freedom prevailed. On November 22^nd, 1963 at 12:30PM President John F. Kennedy was assassinated – catapulting the nation into a struggle to understand, why? For us who were young and free, it was as though we also had been struck down. And, that most iconic of American films, Casablanca, premiered in New York City on November 26, 1942 – Thanksgiving Day. It was a movie with relevance today – a story of refugees trapped by events beyond their control, with a majority of the actors and actresses, either foreign born or refugees themselves – all seeking freedom.

The beacon of freedom, more than anything else, defines the world’s conflicts. That was so this month. Some who live in democracies are unappreciative of freedom’s rarity and fragility; for others, it is a distant siren, a promise. Islamic extremists, who despise the concept of freedom – individual, religious, political and economic – were relentless during the month. According to Wikipedia, more than 600 died at Islamists’ hands. Sayfullo Habibullaevic Saipov, a native of Uzbekistan now living in New York, drove a truck down a bike lane in lower Manhattan, killing eight cyclists. Before being caught, he shouted Allahu Akbar! God is the greatest! He had left a note pledging allegiance to ISIS. In a mosque on Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, ISIS gunmen murdered 305 Sufi Muslims, a sect they consider heretical. On the Korean Peninsula, a North Korean soldier, identified only by his surname, Oh, escaped to the South, carrying with him five bullet wounds from North Korean soldiers, who shot him as he slipped across the border. What motivated Oh? Perhaps he had heard President Trump speak in Seoul of the “dazzling light” of South Korea versus the “impenetrable darkness” of the North – “the glories of freedom versus the toll of tyranny.”

Freedom, or the lack thereof, was at the center of the decision to elevate Xi Jinping last month. It is the crux of the debate between Brussels and London over Brexit – between the vision of Europe articulated by Margaret Thatcher almost forty years ago of a region based on nation-states that cooperate in trade and defense, versus the bureaucratic and liberty-challenged monolith preferred by those like Jean Claude Junker – an unaccountable and under-representative government that serves the needs of bureaucrats, not the wishes of the people – the populous. (Populism has been redefined by European politicians and media, and has assumed a pejorative connotation, to include all those – from nationalists to lovers of liberty – who threaten the comfortable lives led by arrogant elites in Brussels.) In the U.S., freedom lurks behind the debate raging between those who want government to do more, and those who would have it do less – to determine where on the spectrum, between anarchy and tyranny, one would prefer our politics to lie. Freedom is at risk in universities and colleges where conservatives are banned and debate is stifled.

Tales of unwanted sexual advances gripped Hollywood, Washington and the media. The sins of Harvey Weinstein unleashed a torrent of similar stories, some true, others fabricated; some incredulously denied, others admitted to with “crocodile” tears. The consequence, we hope, will be a society more respectful, but which will maintain due process[1]. Off-year elections proved a boon to Democrats, as they did well in state elections and won the governorships of Virginia and New Jersey. In a bad year for his Party, John Curtis kept Utah’s third Congressional District seat in Republican hands. Twenty-six people were shot and killed in a Texas church, including the pastor’s fourteen-year-old daughter. In Thornton, Colorado, a man carrying a handgun walked into a Walmart and shot three people dead. And in the northern California town of Rancho Tehama a maniacal gunman killed five people, including his wife. As ubiquitous as mass shootings have become, the problem is not, in my opinion, guns. It is a system that allows the mentally disturbed to purchase weapons. Border agent Rogelio Martinez was stoned to death in an attack along the Big Bend Sector of the Texas-Mexico border, abetting the call for stronger border security.

The House version of the tax bill was released, along with misinformation from what purports to be a responsible press, especially as it pertains to the deductibility of state and local taxes. Republicans would have been smarter had they explained that this bill would drive economic growth by reducing corporate and low and middle-income tax rates, but would raise taxes on high-income people living in high-taxed states.

Richard Cordray stepped down as chief of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), an agency set up by the Obama Administration, which receives funding from the Federal Reserve, not Congress. It is a rogue agency, essentially the handwork of Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) who hand-picked its director, Mr. Cordray. It is unaccountable to Congress and designed to be independent of the Executive. It has shaken down banks for tens of millions of dollars, giving them no chance to appeal. The proceeds have been used to fund groups that support the CFPB’s mission and policies. Mr. Cordray’s resignation set off a storm between the agency, the President and Senator Warren. Before leaving, Mr. Cordray anointed his assistant Leander English as interim director. Mr. Trump appointed OMB Director Mike Mulvaney, an outspoken critic of the CFPB, for the same position. Courts sided with the President. The federal bribery case against Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ) ended in a hung jury. Adding fuel to the fires that consume political intrigues in Washington was Donna Brazile’s new book, “Hacks.” In it she disclosed an agreement between the Clinton campaign and the DNC. In return for needed cash, the Clintons got a right of first refusal over the party’s communication director and final say on all staff.

President Trump made a ten-day trip to Asia, visiting Japan, South Korea, China, Vietnam and the Philippines. The purpose was to attend an Asia-Pacific Economic Council (APEC) meeting in Danang, Vietnam, where he chatted informally with Vladimir Putin. He argued for fair trade practices: “…we seek robust trade relationships rooted in the principles of fairness and reciprocity.” But, the real purpose was to garner support for further isolating North Korea. Later, Air China suspended flights to North Korea, and the Friendship Bridge, which crosses the Yalu River, was closed, if only temporarily. Perhaps in response, North Korea launched its first missile in two months – a missile capable of reaching the U.S.

Syria signed the Paris Accord, joining a list of other climate-responsible nations, like Afghanistan, North Korea and Zimbabwe. Saudi Arabia’s crown prince Muhammed bin Salmon seems determined to bring his country into the 21^st Century by restoring moderate Islam, limiting dependency on oil and lessening the role and influence of the royal family. Despite the fact that fifteen of the nineteen hijackers who attacked the United States sixteen years ago were Saudi citizens, the Prince spoke of his country’s fight against Islamic terrorism. He was quoted in the November 27^th edition of The Financial Times: “Today, we began tracking down terrorism…We will pursue it until it disappears completely from the face of the earth…The greatest danger of extremist terrorism is in distorting the reputation of our tolerant religion.” It is a given that Islamic extremism will never be defeated until moderate Muslims join the chase. Perhaps they have. Germany still has not formed a government, but a grand coalition may be in the offing. In October, Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) won just over 30% of the vote. Second, were Social Democrats (SPD), led by Martin Schulz, with a little over 20%. Failure to form a minority government had Mrs. Merkel making the case for new elections. But such a prospect worried the SPD because of fear that the far-right AfD Party, which had been third in the elections and is anti-EU, may be gaining support. In the meantime, Britain stumbles towards Brexit, hamstrung by elites in London and Brussels who have created their own form of “resistance.” Robert Mugabe resigned as President of Zimbabwe, after a terror-filled thirty-seven-year reign that caused his resource-rich country to become one of the world’s poorest. His former Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa, a man Mugabe had fired, was sworn in as President. A $10 million dollar-settlement and immunity from prosecution were offered to placate the 93-year-old Mr. Mugabe.

Jerome Powell, a member of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, was named as the new chairman. Third quarter GDP growth was revised up to a positive 3.3%. General Electric cut its quarterly dividend by 68%, to $0.10 per share. The current yield places the stock above the midpoint for all S&P companies, on a yield basis. Going forward, GE will focus on healthcare, power and aerospace. Softbank offered Uber, a private company, a price 30% below last year’s valuation for a 14% stake. Uber, a disruptive technology unpopular with the Left, has been a bane for unionized taxi drivers and fleet owners, the latter who benefit from regulation that limits the number of medallions. Nevertheless, progress persists. Volvo received an order from Uber for 24,000 self-drive cars, to begin production in 2019. As manifestation of the decline in cable television viewership, ESPN lost two million subscribers this past fiscal year. They are now 88 million viewers versus 100 million in 2010. The price of Bitcoins soared above $11,000. In a column in The Wall Street Journal, James Mackintosh noted that in May 2010 a programmer paid 10,000 Bitcoins for two pizzas, or the equivalent today of $7 million a slice!

The Houston Astros beat the L.A. Dodgers to win the World Series. For the first time in forty years, an American woman won the New York marathon, with a time of 2:26:53, a minute ahead of last year’s champion, Mary Keitany of Kenya who was second.

In other news, Prince Harry, fifth in line to the English crown, announced his engagement to the beautiful Meghan Markle, a mixed-race, divorced American actress. Leonardo da Vinci’s painting “Salvator Mundi” sold for $450.3 million at Christies. Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) was physically attacked by a neighbor. The release of Bin Laden’s documents show that he was still in charge and had ties to Iran. A 7.3 magnitude earthquake along the Iraq-Iran border left 330 dead. A Texas trooper was shot and killed during a routine road stop. Anthony Weiner reported to a federal prison in Massachusetts and Oscar Pistorius had his prison sentence doubled when he appealed his six-year term. The Pope made a politically sensitive trip to Myanmar. President Trump put a hold on the Department of Interior’s decision to allow the importation of elephant trophies from Zimbabwe and Zambia, referring to trophy hunting as a “horror show.”  American rapper, Swoop Dogg’s new album cover showed the body of Trump in a morgue with the album’s title: “Make America Crip Again!” I don’t think Mr. Broadus likes Mr. Trump.

Actor and singer David Cassidy died at age 67. Liz Smith, queen of the tabloid gossip columnists died at 94. Jim Nabors, aka Gomer Pyle, died at 87. I lost a cousin – a first cousin once removed – Caroline Blake who died at 102, and a friend from Old Lyme, Bob Adams died at age 87. And my youngest son’s brother-in-law Tom Comer suffered a heart attack and died too young at age 54.

Today marks the first of December, the last month of the year. As we age, time rushes by at an ever-increasing pace. An hour is still an hour, a day yet a day, and a month a month. We cannot slow time down or speed it up, but we can and we should appreciate its value and extract all we can, from each minute, week and year. Despite our differences, whether racial, religious, economic, cultural, or political, and no their intensity, we should respect one another. May your holidays be merry. May love and peace reign throughout the world.

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[1] I will have more to say on this subject in Monday’s Thought of the Day.

"The Month That Was - October 2017"

Sydney M. Williams

swtotd.blogspot.com

The Month That Was

“October 2017”

October 31, 2017

“O hushed October morning mild,

Begin the hours of this day slow,

Make the day seem to us less brief.”

                                                                                                “October”

                                                                                                A Boy’s Will,1915

                                                                                                Robert Frost (1874-1963)

October 24^th marked the 100^th anniversary of Lenin’s Bolsheviks’ seizure of power in Russia. The rise of Communism gave birth to the world’s deadliest ideology – far worse than Nazism and Fascism, in terms of the number of people subjected to imprisonment, terror and death. Yet does the world associate Communism with evil commensurate with its history? I think not. In the Soviet Union alone, subtracting the number of Soviet soldiers and citizens killed in World II, an estimated twenty million were killed by Stalin. About forty-five million were killed in China by Mao Zedong. Between seven and ten million Ukrainians died during the Soviet-inspired “Holodomor,” in 1932-33. Approximately two million Cambodians – almost a third of the population – died at the hands of the Khmer Rouge. Millions were killed in North Korea, Vietnam, Cuba, East Germany, Rumania, Bulgaria, Ethiopia and other places. Communism killed as many people as died in the two world wars of the last century. As Bruce Thornton, classicist and Hoover research fellow recently put it, its history is a “…road to utopia [that] runs over mountains of corpses.” Today, it is not Communism that concerns us, but its half-brother Socialism. Despite its failure in places like Venezuela and in Europe where unrestrained Muslim immigration has created segregated neighborhoods and increased government dependency, it has become popular in the U.S. among followers of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.

During the month, elections were held in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, South America, and a re-run, in Africa (Kenya). Elections in Austria and the Czech Republic moved both countries to the right, meaning people are still concerned about terrorism, immigration and economic growth. Sebastian Kurz will become, at age 31, Europe’s youngest leader, when he assumes the Chancellorship of Austria. In the Czech Republic, Andrei Babis, former finance minister, populist and billionaire businessman, won a “thumping” victory, as Prime Minister-designate. The Catalans declared independence, and Spain’s parliament granted Prime Minister Rajoy powers to enforce union. Catalonia has simmered a long time. In 2006, Madrid promised the region increased autonomy. Four years later – amidst recession and financial crisis – they reneged on that promise. This is a story of disillusionment with bureaucratic and distant administrative governments run by elites. While immigration was pivotal in Brexit, the bigger problem is politicians who are deaf to the people they represent and who are unaffected by the policies they promote. We are witnessing a backlash against hypocrisy, arrogance and authoritarianism, in Brussels, Madrid and other capitals.  

In Japan, Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party won its third landslide victory. Abe, an ally of the U.S. and a friend of President Trump, is an advocate for more defense spending. He benefitted from North Korea’s militant rhetoric and an improved economy. In Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif returned as Prime Minister and as head of the Pakistan Muslim League two months after being disqualified on charges of corruption. In Argentina, President Mauricio Macri’s Republican Proposal Party increased its seats in both the legislature and the senate, while former president Christina Kirchner’s Justicialist Party lost seats. A re-run of August’s race in Kenya was won again by current president Uhuru Kenyatta.

U.S.-backed Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces took back the Al-Omar oil fields – Syria’s most productive – from ISIS forces, fields that had been captured in 2014. Elsewhere, Islamic terrorists persisted in their work. Almost 400 people died in Somalia, when separate truck and car bombs exploded, the work of al-Shabaab militants. In Marseilles, two women were stabbed to death by a man shouting “Allahu Akbar.” The assailant was shot dead. At least seventeen died in Cameroon, in two provinces bordering Nigeria. In all, over 700 people died during the month at the hands of Islamic extremists. Good news came toward the end of the month, when 32-year-old Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salmon said his country would return to “moderate Islam that is open to all religions and to the world.” It should be remembered that fifteen of the nineteen hijackers on 9/11 were Saudi citizens.

A Chinese Communist Party’s recent meeting positioned China’s President Xi Jinping as “pre-eminent leader,” with added powers and no successor, something not seen since Mao Zedong. It ends a period of collective leadership. Following an illness that infected U.S. embassy personnel in Havana, fifteen Cuban diplomats were expelled from their embassy in Washington. The Iran nuclear deal was not re-certified by President Trump, as required every three months, but sent to Congress for ratification.

Fifty-eight people were killed and 489 wounded by a lone gunman in Las Vegas. Almost immediately, anti-gun politicians politicized the tragedy, ignoring the fact that it is the person pulling the trigger who is at fault, not the weapon. Nevertheless, a question: how was Stephen Paddock able to buy so many high-powered rifles legally in such a short period? Technology today is such that red flags should have been raised when he purchased the third, fourth through eighteenth assault rifle. Was he planning on arming a regiment? The internet should allow for a repository of gun-purchase information available to all legitimate gun dealers. General John Kelly’s sterling defense of Donald Trump’s call to a bereaved Gold Star widow was politicized by a callow member of Congress with no sense of dignity or respect. The condemnation of Harvey Weinstein’s despicable behavior toward women set off a deluge of accusations against other men, including a ridiculous accusation that 93-year-old, wheel chair-bound, ex-President George H.W. Bush misbehaved toward a young woman.

Russian interference in last year’s election became more complex. Robert Mueller indicted Paul Manafort, a former campaign chairman for Mr. Trump, and Manafort’s former business partner, Rick Gates. They were charged in a 12-point indictment, including conspiracy to commit money laundering. Also, it was disclosed that Hillary Clinton and the DNC paid $12.4 million to the Washington Law firm, Perkins Coie. The law firm then used the money to pay the Washington research firm Fusion GPS to hire discredited, retired British spy Christopher Steele. He, in turn, paid unknown and unidentified Russians to tell stories about Mr. Trump, in reckless disregard as to whether the stories were true or not. Specifically, who in the Clinton campaign and who at the DNC authorized those payments remains a mystery. Fusion GPS has refused to testify. The United States House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence began investigations into the 2013 purchase by Rosatom, a state-owned Russian uranium company (and a contributor to the Clinton Foundation) of Canadian-based Uranium One, which produces 20% of the U.S.’s uranium – a deal approved by the Obama Administration, when Hillary Clinton was Secretary of State.

A budget resolution was passed by both houses of Congress that allows a tax bill to be approved with a simple majority. That vote is expected by the end of the year. The Supreme Court began a new term with a full complement of nine justices. Issues will include the right of a baker to refuse to supply a wedding cake to same-sex couples and the right of a federal employee to refuse to pay union dues. In a speech at Harvard, Education Secretary Betsy DeVos spoke, amid catcalls, of how school choice for the poor and disadvantaged empowers families, creates room for healthy diversity and is consistent with historic aims of public education. Alan Dershowitz, Felix Frankfurter Professor of Law, Emeritus, at Harvard, explained that President Trump’s “calm before the storm” comment was a message to North Korea and Iran.

Despite Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, U.S. GDP grew at 3% in the third quarter, surprising most economists. While most markets were calm during the month, the Bitcoin price soared 40%. In October, Goldman Sachs reported they would trade the crypto-currency. But trading an instrument is not the same as recommending it. Volatility and liquidity are what traders want. October 19^th marked the 30^th anniversary of “Black Monday,” a non-event this year. Amazon asked states and municipalities to bid on a second headquarters. Warren Buffett, whom it is better to watch what he does than what he says, bought a controlling stake in Pilot J Travel Centers, the owner of truck stops – sellers of coffee, food and fuel. The market’s calm bewilders me, but tech stocks are on fire. Pay Pal’s market capitalization now exceeds that of American Express. The market capitalization of Apple is greater than the combined values of General Electric, IBM, Boeing, Disney and Dow/DuPont. The Senate voted relief to banks from class-action lawsuits, which have always been a boon to trial lawyers and meaningless for individual plaintiffs. Jerome Powell, a current Fed Governor, is expected to be named Fed Chairman.

In other news, an imperious EU Parliament asked British Prime Minister Theresa May to fire Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson. The U.S. (finally) dropped out of UNESCO, citing an anti-Israel bias. Four U.S. soldiers were killed in Niger, reputedly by ISIS. (American GIs serve in 150 countries.) Despite such weapons proliferating, the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons.  The Nobel Prize for literature was won by the Japanese-born, British author, Kazuo Ishiguro. NASA reported that signals reached Earth of two collapsed stars that smashed into one another 130 million years ago. Nigerian terrorist, Farouk Abdulmutallab, better known as the “underwear bomber” filed suit in the U.S., claiming his jail conditions are too tough.

Fires in Napa and Sonoma Counties, California, killed forty-two, destroyed 8,400 structures and created $1 billion in insured losses. A group of protestors supported by Antifa said they wanted to “deface” Columbus Day. Richard Thaler, a behavioral economist with the University of Chicago. won the Nobel Prize for economics. The Boy Scouts of America, which has seen membership drop 40% over the past 45 years, said they will now admit girls. A “hostile” take-over? The opioid crisis was declared a National Emergency by the President. Vietnam veteran and medic, Captain Gary Michael Rose was awarded the Congressional Medal of Honor, for bravery during a just-declassified operation in Laos, in September 1970. In an example of beautiful irony, the group behind the “Fearless Girl” statue on lower Broadway in New York agreed to pay $5 million, to settle claims by 305 women employees that their pay was unequal to men in similar positions. With fears of white supremacists on campuses and an absence of common sense, a Michigan State student misidentified a shoelace for a noose. Heritage High School in Wake Forest, North Carolina joined a chorus of politically-correct schools. They will no longer name a valedictorian, citing unhealthy competition among students. And “Lulu,” a young black lab, flunked the CIA’s explosive detection “puppy class,” indicating labs may be smarter than their reputation.

Antoine Domino, better known as “Fats,” died at age 89. His recordings of “Blueberry Hill” and “Ain’t It a Shame” are among my favorites. Succumbing at the same age was Robert Guillaume, unforgettable to millions as “Benson.” And, I lost a good friend, amateur actor, author, former Wall Street Journal editor and fellow Drones Club member, Ned Crabb.

We move on to November, the month in which we celebrate the bounty of our harvests, and during which we prepare for joyful, though commerce-fixated, holidays.