"Open Letter to Grandchildren"

 

Sydney M. Williams

 

Essay from Essex

“Open Letter to Grandchildren”

October 8, 2022

 

“Parents can only give good advice or put them on the right paths,

but the final forming of a person’s character lies in their own hands.”

                                                                                                                                Anne Frank (1929-1945)

                                                                                                                                The Diary of a Young Girl, 1952

 

I last wrote you as a group in May 2017, over five years ago, when you ranged in age from nine to seventeen. Now, you are between fourteen and twenty-two. That first letter was to tell you something of what it was like to grow up in the 1950s. This letter is an open letter (meaning it will be available to others), which offers advice, but which is mindful of the risk of an older generation advising a younger. The opportunities you have, and the challenges you face, are not the same as what I had and faced. Much has changed in the past six and seven decades. But the emotions that govern our behavior are the same. We are unique individuals, but sadness, doubt, and stress are common to all, just as are joy, trust, and relaxation. It is how we handle myriad emotions – some good, others not – that help determine what kind of a person we become and what kind of life we will lead.

 

………………………………………………..

 

Coco and I could not be prouder as to how you have navigated childhood and begun to enter adulthood. The pressure on youth – always high – has intensified, as communication and social media have intruded in ways unimaginable when I was a child. It is important to maintain perspective – easier said than done – for the road of life is long. It traipses through open fields and into dark woods, past extensive vistas and around blind corners. Along its path will be experiences, places to visit, and thousands of people to meet. 

 

All of this adds to self-understanding, something the Ancients recognized as critical to a happy life. The first of the three maxims at Delphi is “Know thyself.” You will be tested and tempted. But in keeping one eye on the future and the other on your values will allow you to maintain your moral compass. While experimentation is fine, recognition of the long journey ahead will help distinguish the good from the bad, the safe from the dangerous – the helping hand versus the proffered, proverbial apple. 

 

Each of us is unique, with our own talents and aspirations. The goal should be selfless self-satisfaction, ensconced in realism – what is possible that fulfills and makes you happy. If you find a spouse to love and to share your dreams (which I hope you do), your goals will be shared ones. But there is no right goal, no one better than another. It is personal. If not in family, you may find happiness in work, in sport, or perhaps in faith. What brings you satisfaction may not apply to a sibling or cousin.

 

Through family, friends, reading, school, and college, young adulthood is the time to realize and appreciate one’s unique talents, where lie one’s abilities, and what are one’s limitations. Be mindful of your needs, enthusiastic about what you love, but exercise restraint toward what you want. A few of you may know how you would like to spend your life, but for most the quest will take longer. It is best to play to your strengths, to enforce them through study and work. And it is important to understand your weaknesses, to correct them if possible, but to avoid the unreachable, like Stuart Little’s elusive search for Margalo. As you follow your dreams you will be tested, as were King Arthur’s knights in their search for the Sangreal. As well, keep in mind the old adage that perfection is the enemy of the good.  

 

Luck plays a big role as our lives unfold – people we meet, friends, coaches, and teachers; accidents and where we live. There are events over which we have control, but much of life is based on chance. There is an old saying that we make our own luck, and there is some truth in that. We should each be responsible and accountable. But chance over which we have no control can alter one’s life. Sixty-four years ago, then thirteen-years-old, a cousin dove into what turned out to be a shallow pool; her life changed – through no fault of her own. A month shy of my 21^st birthday I met the woman who became my wife. At the time, my moral compass was faltering. But, in meeting her, the arrow spun to true north. Despite my youth, I immediately knew she was the woman for me. In order to win her, I had to straighten myself out. One blessing has been each of you. My first job after college was with Eastman Kodak. They posted me to Hartford. Would my life have taken different turns had they moved me to Nashville, Detroit, or San Francisco? Probably, but I don’t think about what might have been. Every day, we make hundreds of decisions. Most we make instinctively, unconsciously, yet all have consequences, some significant, others not. We decide and move on. It is the moral compass, gained in our early years, that guides us through life’s myriad challenges and decisions.

 

……………………………………………

 

We rarely think of how lucky we were to be born. The right sperm and the right egg, stretching back millions of years to the very origins of life. The odds against that are incalculable. Thus, to not make the most of our time on earth is a mistake. While you ten are all related by blood, either as siblings or cousins, each of you is a special individual. As citizens of this country, we are equal in our rights, but we are not equal in our abilities or aspirations. It is why knowing who we are, being honest with and about ourselves, is so important. None of you are likely to play professional football, for instance. But each of you will have opportunities to use your innate talents that have been honed at home, in school, and in college. Success to one may not be success to another. But that is no matter; a productive life, well-lived, should be the goal.

 

As I come to the end of this pontificating sermon. I cannot help thinking about life, how exciting it is, with its valleys and peaks, with its tears of sadness and joy, with its hazards and opportunities. In the final act of my life, I envy you still in your first. Keep in mind, the one constant in your life is character. Guard it with care. Do not let it be diluted. Try not to follow the mob. Do not be seduced by suggestive slogans, bewitching words, or tantalizing offers.  Keep in mind Anne Frank’s advice in the rubric that heads this letter. In Shakespeare’s Hamlet, Polonius speaks to his son Laertes, as he is headed to France: “To thine own self be true.” That is all you need to know.

"Corona Virus and the Economy"

Sydney M. Williams

www.swtotd.blogspot.com

Thought of the Day

“Corona Virus and the Economy”

March 14, 2020

“In general, positive Black Swans take time to show their effect,

 while negative ones happen very quickly—it is much easier and much faster to destroy than to build.”

                                                                        Nassim Nicholas Taleb (1960-)

                                                                        The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, 2007

What impact Covid-19 will have on the global economy no one now knows, but at least two things seem clear and will have consequences, both of which have been instrumental in keeping inflation at bay. First, the benefits of globalization and, second, the process of “just-in-time” inventory. Both bear risks.

The concept of free trade is a search for an ideal, not unlike King Arthur’s Knights’ quest for the Holy Grail. However, the reality of free trade can never be. Yet the closer we get the better all are served. Free trade is based on the concept of division of labor, popularized by Adam Smith, of labor costs, and by the availability of natural resources and of the means of shipping resources and finished goods. Theoretically, each nation should manufacture for consumption and export that which it can produce most cost-efficiently – whether the product is soybeans, oil or electronics – and import what it needs.

Easier said than done. Every country has arable land. Every country has workers skilled in multiple areas, not just in those for which they are best known. No country wants to be totally dependent on another. Exploitation and subservience are, though, unfortunately, natural conditions of man. As well, intellectual property is protected in some countries, but not in others. Rule of law does not apply evenly. Nevertheless, the goal of global trade is worthy. For one, it takes advantage of efficiencies, resources availability and labor costs. But, most important, trade requires that countries communicate and come together, and gathering is better than isolating.

Trade has reduced inflationary pressures on the price of consumables, by outsourcing manufacturing and assembly to countries with low labor costs. Medicines produced by American companies in India or China would have been more expensive if produced in New Jersey or Illinois. The same could be said of automotive parts and consumer electronic gadgets. While low prices for finished products have benefitted consumers, the losers include factory workers and lab technicians – and perhaps consumers if and when supply disruptions come. In July 2019, the U.S.–China Economic Security Review Commission invoked a Department of Commerce study that found that 97% of all antibiotics come from China. The Corona Virus, originating in Wuhan, has highlighted the disadvantage of dependency on China for something as vital as antibiotics.     

Just-in-time (JIT) inventory is a management tool that dates back to the 1970s, when it was perfected by Toyota as a means of meeting consumer demands with minimum delays. JIT means that manufacturers produce to demand, distributors carry less inventory and retailers stock less goods – all result in lower costs to consumers. With plentiful goods on store shelves, JIT has been adopted by most American consumers. We tend to not stockpile, as we know if we run out of something, like bottled water or paper towels, we simply replenish what we need. However, there are times when panic causes habits to change. The oil embargo in 1973 caused a temporary gasoline shortage. Long lines at gas stations, limited purchases and lower speed limits were a consequence. There was not a spate of road trips or the purchase of gas-guzzling SUVs. In reality, inventories, instead of being held by gasoline dealers, were held by consumers who never let their gas tanks go below half. With 125 million registered vehicles in 1973, that meant approximately 1.25 billion gallons of gasoline were squirreled away in the tanks of cars and trucks. Today, we are seeing a similar demand for products like bottled water, paper towels and toilet paper. Corona Virus has some unknown effects, but one of them does not appear to be diarrhea. Yet three grocery shelves in my area were empty of toilet tissue this morning. Why? Need has not changed. People are hoarding. It will end when consumers realize they have no need to store more toilet paper.

Richard Thaler (born in 1945) of the University of Chicago and who won the Nobel Prize for Economics in 2017 is considered the father of Behavioral Economics. But the fact is all economics relate to behavior. Economics was once considered the “Dismal Science,” a term coined by Scottish essayist Thomas Carlyle, who had in mind Thomas Malthus’ theory that population growth would outstrip the ability to produce food, thus predicting a destiny of starvation and poverty. Malthus was wrong in that he underestimated man’s creativity. In truth, we react to carrots and sticks, to encouragement and fear – to real and emotional consequences. Advertisers understand this. And, just as the gas crisis ended as suddenly as it began, so will the current shortage of toilet paper. People’s needs have not changed, just their impulses.

For anyone who tries to stay on top of the news, it is impossible to determine how bad the Corona Virus will be. No one wants to underestimate its potential harm, in part because doctors know so little about it. Schools, colleges, sports arena are driven by concern for their students and patrons, but they are also conscious of liability, for we live in a time when and where tort lawyers loom large. Has it been politicized? Of course. We are in an election year, with a President popular with millions of followers, but despised by most of mainstream media. The economy has been Mr. Trump’s strongest suit. Should it falter, the advantage will accrue to his opponents. It is understandable that he does not want people to panic (and they should not), but they should be concerned, and they should be careful. Mr. Trump’s press conference on Friday was accompanied by a thousand-point rise in the DJIA, albeit from a distressed level. There is no reason to expect the rally to continue on Monday, but there is nothing to suggest it will fall off sharply.

The Corona Virus has temporarily altered views toward borders and global trade, but my guess is that the ultimate consequence is to cause people to consider more carefully the advantages and disadvantages of both. The same is true of inventories. Black Swan events are difficult, to predict and endure; but we have successfully faced formidable challenges in the past. We will face others, as well, in the future. In 1859, at the Wisconsin Fair in Milwaukee, Abraham Lincoln spoke to the crowd: “Let us hope, rather, that by the best cultivation of the physical world, beneath and around us; and the intellectual and moral world within us, we shall secure an individual, social, and political prosperity and happiness, whose course shall be onward and upward, and which, while the earth endures, shall not pass away.” Words to ponder as we stalk the aisles looking for the elusive roll of toilet paper.